The DisAdvantage Player

[redietz]

Alan and the various Rob aliases seem to have adopted the phrase "advantage player" as akin to the word "liberal," as somehow having a negative connotation.

So let's label the folks using win goals and progressions on negative machines as what they really are, "DisAdvantaged Players." That's factually accurate, as can be proven by the math, as opposed to whatever opaque, sloppy nonsense they use to diss the advantage players.

So from now on, anyone who's not an advantage player can rightfully be called a "DisAdvantaged Player."

The only thing worse than an addicted advantage player, I submit, is an addicted "DisAdvantaged Player."

Don't be shy, guys -- take on the "DisAdvantaged" label and carry it proudly.

[Alan Mendelson]

I admit that I am not playing positive expectation games, but I also think that I have an advantage over other players because I now have and use a win goal (it is a bit loftier than what others might employ). But to be honest, I don't mind being a "disadvantaged player" who leaves with a profit. That is something to be proud about!

Alan Mendelson
Disadvantaged Player

[arcimede$]

From his other post it appears Alan's win goal requires a royal flush. Not sure that's going to help many people.

[Alan Mendelson]

From his other post it appears Alan's win goal requires a royal flush. Not sure that's going to help many people.

I admit that I have a higher win goal than most, but it is not a royal flush. Actually my "win goal" varies with my entertainment budget of that week or day or trip. That is most important: any casino visit I make is for entertainment -- and it is not some concocted investment system based on some obscure belief that I will be on the positive side of a bell curve because I am playing only positive expectation games and that the RNG will cooperate and deliver the cards needed for the proper strategy that I play.

[arcimede$]

I admit that I have a higher win goal than most, but it is not a royal flush. Actually my "win goal" varies with my entertainment budget of that week or day or trip. That is most important: any casino visit I make is for entertainment -- and it is not some concocted investment system based on some obscure belief that I will be on the positive side of a bell curve because I am playing only positive expectation games and that the RNG will cooperate and deliver the cards needed for the proper strategy that I play.

You need to be on the positive side of the bell curve to make a profit. In my case I can be on the negative side of the bell curve and still win. That's the big difference between our play.

[Alan Mendelson]

You need to be on the positive side of the bell curve to make a profit. In my case I can be on the negative side of the bell curve and still win. That's the big difference between our play.

What kind of voodoo economics is this, Arc? Are you saying that my dollars are worth less than your dollars? Are you saying that you can be on the negative side of a bell curve and win, but my dollars on the negative side of a bell curve can't also show a win?

[regnis]

maybe he's using those fake benjamins that were floating around here recently

[arcimede$]

What kind of voodoo economics is this, Arc? Are you saying that my dollars are worth less than your dollars? Are you saying that you can be on the negative side of a bell curve and win, but my dollars on the negative side of a bell curve can't also show a win?

Alan, I am really surprised you didn't understand this. I have provided you with plenty of information about the bell curve that you shouldn't have been confused. More evidence that you don't even try to understand reality and simply choose to live in your own little fantasy world.

I'll try to make this as simple as possible. If a bell curve is centered on a return of 101% and a player achieves 100.5% then they are on the negative side of the curve. They also make money. If a bell curve is centered on a return of 99% and they achieve 99.5% they are on the positive side of the bell curve and lose money.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, what kind of dance are you performing now? Of course I know what bell curves do. I'm just amazed that you said " I can be on the negative side of the bell curve and still win" but I can't be. Well Arc, I can also be on the negative side of the bell curve and still win.

Now, would you mind explaining why my profits on the negative side of the bell curve don't count?

You forgot... Im the guy who studied economics at the Maxwell School. And why center the bell curve at 101%?? Why not center it at 110%?? Oh I know why!! Because your bell curve is just theoretical and is not based on any research of actual results or returns. Remember, we went through this before.

Dance. Dance. Dance. How about some Whitney Houston?

[arcimede$]

Arc, what kind of dance are you performing now? Of course I know what bell curves do.

No, you obviously think you do. That is different. Clearly, you don't have a clue. A bell curve is a graphical representation of a set of data. That data has a unique definition and may be different then other bells curves based on different sets of data.

I'm just amazed that you said " I can be on the negative side of the bell curve and still win" but I can't be. Well Arc, I can also be on the negative side of the bell curve and still win.

Isn't that what I just told you. It all depends on the particular bell curve. If the curve is for the results of players of a 99% ER game then YOU CAN"T be on the negative side of the curve. By definition ALL of those players would have a return of less then 99%.

Now, would you mind explaining why my profits on the negative side of the bell curve don't count?

Because the bell curve defines your results as losses. If you make a profit on a 99% bell curve you are on the positive side.

You forgot... Im the guy who studied economics at the Maxwell School.

It would appear you have a good case for a lawsuit.

And why center the bell curve at 101%?? Why not center it at 110%?? Oh I know why!! Because your bell curve is just theoretical and is not based on any research of actual results or returns. Remember, we went through this before.

Alan, you really need to start paying attention. The bell curve is centered where it is because that is where the mean of the set of data being graphed is located. It could be actual results here, or it could also be theoretical. You can build bell curves for either one.

[Alan Mendelson]

Great dance moves, Arc, and I love this one:

A bell curve is a graphical representation of a set of data. That data has a unique definition and may be different then other bells curves based on different sets of data.

So what's your research? I think I asked this question before? Show me your research from which you plotted your bell curve. Any bell curve related to video poker results will do, for a start. And tell me how the research was compiled? Did you watch 100 players for 5 hours? Did you have a team of monitors watching 10 players for six hours, recording their wins and losses? What?

Dance. Dance. Dance.

[arcimede$]

A bell curve for VP can be built by the application of simple math. For example, a simulation of a VP game using several hundred players. For example, one could simulate BP or JOB. It could also be a survey of players but that would be time consuming and you would still be unsure of the honesty of those reporting. So, the simulation is the easiest and most accurate.

I have written exactly those kind of simulations. So, is it actual or is it theoretical? A vague distinction at best. The point still stands that if you have 100 (real or simulated) players at a 101% game and also simulate 100 players at a 99% game, the bell curve will be centered very close to the ER of those games.

Hence, running the simulations mathematically demonstrates that a bell curve will be centered close to the ER for a VP game. Therefore, you can now compare your own results with those of the simulated players. If you do better than the the ER (mean of the bell curve) you have done better than the average player. This is what I called a positive position on the curve.

Is it starting to sink in yet, Alan?

[Alan Mendelson]

Youre dancing, Arc. A bell curve based on a simulation does not equal a bell curve based on actual observation of player results. You know that.

In fact, Arc, you never presented your Bell Curve parameters in your original statement. Only after I challenged you did you come up with your parameters about where the center of the bell curve lies. In other words, you're making it up as you go along.

You get the penalty flag.

[Rob.Singer]

The reason you caught him trying to dance is because he's trying so hard to change the wording he found in his Internet searches about bell curves, to make believe he came up with them. But yes, it's absolutely hilarious seeing someone forced into doing the two-step!

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, I had bell curves coming out of my ears, nose and throat and other body parts too back in the days of doing studies for urban and regional economic policies. how do you think politicians and government make decisions? they survey and come up with bell curves and plot votes according to the results of who benefits and who doesn't. wanna buy a vote?

Later, I was chairman of a commission in New York State that was charged with trying to replace local property taxes with a local income tax. But that's another story...

[Rob.Singer]

Rob, I had bell curves coming out of my ears, nose and throat and other body parts too back in the days of doing studies for urban and regional economic policies. how do you think politicians and government make decisions? they survey and come up with bell curves and plot votes according to the results of who benefits and who doesn't. wanna buy a vote?

Later, I was chairman of a commission in New York State that was charged with trying to replace local property taxes with a local income tax. But that's another story...

....but still, arci's the only one who knows everything about them, and he's never used them for anything!

[arcimede$]

Youre dancing, Arc. A bell curve based on a simulation does not equal a bell curve based on actual observation of player results. You know that.

It doesn't have to, but it can easily be made to. It all depends on your definition. If you're worried about player errors then just assume them as part of the simulation. This is not difficult. You are once again trying to deny reality.

In fact, Arc, you never presented your Bell Curve parameters in your original statement. Only after I challenged you did you come up with your parameters about where the center of the bell curve lies. In other words, you're making it up as you go along.

You get the penalty flag.

Alan, you didn't really go to a school on economics, did you! Only a complete statistical newbie would make such illiterate statements.

You can lead a person to knowledge but you can't make them learn.

[Alan Mendelson]

33 hours of economics, concentration on urban and regional economics/planning at the Maxwell School. My professors were the same gang who developed Big MAC for the NYC bailout in the mid-1970s.

I headed that commission on instituting a local income tax in 1972. public oath and everything. even an assigned parking place and a special New York State "official" license plate.

[arcimede$]

Well Alan, when are you going to start applying some of that education? What I'm talking about is simple statistics applied to random events. That's it. Econ 101.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, I never dealt with random events. I dealt in actual surveys, actual numbers, actual impact on people. I guess we look at things differently which is why I am more concerned with "actual return" than "expected return" and why I look at each individual video poker session and can't fathom the idea of your long term.

In the real world, people have to pay their rent every month, politicians face election every couple of years, commission chairmen can get axed at the next session of the legislature. LOL

Oh, and there is no long term in the TV business either. The term ends when the show goes on the air.