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Thread: What percentage of gamblers are ahead at some point?

  1. #1
    In another thread, I posted information from my interview with gaming author Victor Royer about players who are actually "ahead" during some point of their casino visit. This post prompted some critical responses, including this one:

    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Just for the record, I think it is inappropriate to quote Victor Royer as claiming 86 percent of gamblers are ahead at one point in their trips. There is no data attached to that claim, just the assuarnce that Royer is a "gaming author." Hell, I'm a "gaming author." Rob Singer is a "gaming author." The phrase "gaming author" means absolutely nothing in terms of providing an objective evaluation of expertise or accurate information.

    That's pretty obvious, but it needed to be pointed out.
    So, I contacted Victor Royer who sent me this response and asked me to post it on his behalf:

    Just for the record, "author" redietz, I don't make "claims", I state facts. The actual figure is closer to 91%, but I was conservative in the interview, because I based those figures on the statistics provided in the Annual Report by the LVCVA - the Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority, in addition to my own data. You probably don't know that for the past 22 years my research company has provided data and player statistics and intelligence to the gaming community, to both the casino owners and operators, as well as to gaming equipment manufacturers. I have researched, analyzed, and provided hundreds of confidential reports on these subjects, which were created and produced specifically for the casinos, or companies, who wanted to know this. These include Wall Street investment firms, and gaming analysts, and related industries. I am rated in the top 5% of worldwide consultants on these subjects by the Wall Street firm for whom I provide my services as gaming consultant and analyst. In my 30 years in Las Vegas, my staff and I have interviewed hundreds of thousands of casino players and visitors. In my 6 computers, several of which have been retired over the years but which I still have, there exist files of data in the millions. So, to answer your inquiry -- what I say is based on facts that I know, and that are true and accurate at the time of writing, or the time of the interview, or those that I believe to be so factual based on material obtained from other sources, such as the LVCVA Annual Reports on Las Vegas visitors and statistics. In fact, my data is more precise and more accurate in regard to casino gaming, because the LVCVA focuses on the "tourist" experience overall, while all my company's research is focused entirely on casino players. ~ Vic

  2. #2
    After coming across that post by redietz (and before reading Victor's response here), my immediate reaction to " Hell, I'm a "gaming author." Rob Singer is a "gaming author." was this: these two may consider themselves "gaming authors" but having read some of Victor Royer's publications over the years, he clearly is more than that. He's a respected and acknowledged gaming author throughout the nation. Huge difference.

    Now, having read Victor's response, and his credentials are even more impressive than I realized, someone owes someone an apology.

  3. #3
    Next we'll have arci come on and ask for support of all Royer's claims

    Alan while I believe Victor's 91% figure because it's in the same territory of Lenny F's, it'll get minimalized by some because of what I said before--the claim that few people who get ahead see value enough to quit for the day. And while this is true, it's a counter-productive argument to your original statement. What it actually means is if a gambler DID stop at a minimum of +5 or whatever amount of credits--thereby being ahead on 90% of his visits (and more than a few would be big winning visits)--AND he had a reasonable stop-loss limit commensurate with his bankroll and play strategy, any game, positive or negative, can be beaten consistently. Just as I've always said.

    So what is the real difference between myself, authors like Frank, the Queen, Paymar, Dancer, Skip Hughes and myself? Well it's easy. Frank doesn't play with his own money and gets paid to play, and the others sell anything and everything under the sun for their income (RIP SKIPPY). I, OTOH, have never charged anybody anything, simply because I actually won what I published that I won. I'm not too familiar with Royer with the exception of occasional communication via e-mail over the years, but I'll take Vic's word for it that he's one of the good guys. But does he actually play vp?
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 11-30-2012 at 06:52 PM.

  4. #4
    I don't know if Vic plays VP, but he's not much of a craps player! LOL

    What is missing, and I am gong to ask him about it, is if he has any figures on what the "win" is?? How much were they ahead on average when they were ahead?

  5. #5
    I'm surprised Alan didn't ask for support. On another thread he wanted details on my bell curve. I wonder why he accepts this claim?

    As for me, I already said this is likely true. The problem is the vast majority are only ahead somewhere in the first 10 minutes and many of them after the first 2-3 spins/deals. In fact, if I remember the simulation I did of BP correctly, the number was 94% for a 5 credit win goal and a large loss limit. But, it would be less for lower paying games.

    Of course, even with that 94% figure the overall return was exactly the ER. It doesn't take much in the way of losses to eat up those tiny wins.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    I'm surprised Alan didn't ask for support. On another thread he wanted details on my bell curve. I wonder why he accepts this claim?
    Perhaps it's because I know him. I know what books he's written. I know who his publisher is. I know what gaming companies he has contracts with. And we also developed a website together.

    Of course, I haven't got a friggin clue in the world who you are, Arc? Except that you are the world's greatest authority and take every possible rude shot you can at me.

  7. #7
    I'll help here. He's rude because what else would amuse a sad & lonely old man who gets reminded of the biggest mistake of his life every day when he wakes up? And he knows everything because it's a fantasy world any lost soul can create for themself on the Internet. Hey....when you just don't have it, make believe you do! That especially comes in handy when you're doing penance for mistreating someone close.

    Christmas joy has many different faces.

  8. #8
    So Rob. Are we saying here that a good strategy on, say, rtt strategy would be to cash in and start a new session after ahead 5 credits? Or just leave and hope for the best next trip?

  9. #9
    In fact, the ARTT strategy is the one in which there's a minimum 5-credit win goal per session, and you can play however many sessions you'd like. In RTT it's a different story, in that the win goals equate to more credits. But yes, you can make that win goal any amount of credits you like. Just remember not to be scared off by AP lies, like the one that ignores that there will be a lot more huge winners than big losers.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Of course, I haven't got a friggin clue in the world who you are, Arc? Except that you are the world's greatest authority and take every possible rude shot you can at me.
    I'm far from the "greatest authority". I simply repeat the facts as uncovered by others who looked at this long before I did. You know, all the mathematicians in the world.

    As for being rude, you get what you earn.

  11. #11
    And of course, the very first one of those "facts" he has to face day after day, also happens to be the one that sets him off to act so rude.

    You are the sum of your actions.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    And of course, the very first one of those "facts" he has to face day after day, also happens to be the one that sets him off to act so rude.

    You are the sum of your actions.
    Given robki's knack for projection we know exactly what this means.

  13. #13
    I'm only too glad to apologize to Victor Royer, although my gripe wasn't with him, but with Alan's use of the term "gaming author" as if it conferred some expertise. Since I have some friends who are sociologists, I'm fascinated by this particular topic. Basically, I'd like to know if this info was self-reported by the gamblers themselves in response to surveys, which would have a number of obvious problems. I'm not challenging the results -- I just would love to know how the surveyors, if that's what this was, managed the problems inherent with self-reporting of behavior. The other questions -- if casinos really wanted to know who was ahead when -- don't they now have the ability to actually factually track someone and generate that information themselves? Wouldn't players' card use provide real data regarding who was ahead at some point in a "trip" as opposed to reliance on interviews with all the accompanying problems? Does Mr. Royer's company use that players' card info to arrive at the conclusions?

    This is a great topic.

  14. #14
    redietz raised a valid question about the casinos and their ability to create statistics. I know that during a trip I can stop into my host's office and have her check my current win/loss on her computer. But do the casinos mine their own data to find this? A good question.

    Here's another question: what percentage of players in a casino use a player's card? In the high limit rooms my estimate is that every player uses a player's card especially at joints like Rincon where there is cash back, and free play offers. I'm sure the locals casinos probably also have a high percentage of card toting players. But the overall population? Any estimates?

    And redietz, sorry you had a gripe with me referring to Victor H Royer as a gaming author because that's what he is. I would also call Bob Dancer an author, but his field of expertise appears to be limited to video poker. Victor Royer has books about slots, video poker, live poker, poker tournaments, blackjack, craps and keno. Victor is very active as a live poker player in Vegas. However, he needs to brush up on his craps table etiquette -- and that's a joke between him and me after our last time at Caesars.

  15. #15
    In my own case, I know I was ahead at one point during SPS in at least 98% of my sessions--perhaps even every session. Today as a recreational player, that number has dropped to around 93%.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    In fact, the ARTT strategy is the one in which there's a minimum 5-credit win goal per session, and you can play however many sessions you'd like. In RTT it's a different story, in that the win goals equate to more credits. But yes, you can make that win goal any amount of credits you like. Just remember not to be scared off by AP lies, like the one that ignores that there will be a lot more huge winners than big losers.
    Thanks. After thinking it through, I get what you're saying.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    As for being rude, you get what you earn.
    Rudeness is given out freely and deliberately a lot more often than it is ever "earned" and you have been most generous.

  18. #18
    Usually Vic the rudeness is a defense mechanism for having nothing to really say.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Usually Vic the rudeness is a defense mechanism for having nothing to really say.
    Or in arci's case....nothing to really do.

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