Smart Money

[redietz]

Hey monet. Keep killin' 'em.


I hope you saw my teaser in the other thread (Ravens/Steelers Under teased with Texans/Dallas Over). I'm getting superstitious now. Literally everything I posted here has made money. That may stop with my Vols at 50-1 to win NCAA title. They may not make the cut. I'm hoping it comes down to a "If A happens, they are in; If B they are not." Then I could hedge pre-playoff. At those odds, I have some open teasers waiting for good use.

Still shopping for some other longshot squads. I have nothing at this point. Penn State, Ohio State, Texas all overrated and short odds.

I have a brilliant observation regarding the playoff, which I will do a blog about. The SEC got snookered in a way. Why do you agree to a format where all of these fast, bombardier SEC teams (that includes everyone but Tennessee) get to play road games at higher rated teams in 10-degree weather? LOL. They cut their own throats. They probably have three of the four best teams in the country, and they will all be on the road in winter. Duhhhhhh. I knew I'd get to use a line about SEC SATs versus Big 10 sometime.

[monet]

2 Teamer
Canes Puck Line
Stars Puck Line

You can get a little better if you put the Stars on the Alternate Puck Line (-2.5).
I hate the Sharks and it's about time for them to lose by 3 or more goals.

[monet]

2 Teamer

Canes Puck Line
Stars Puck Line

You can get a little better if you put the Stars on the Alternate Puck Line (-2.5).
I hate the Sharks and it's about time for them to lose by 3 or more goals.

39-22 (63.9%)

Only Paid 3.5 to 1 this time.
Stars needed TWO EMPTY NETTERS to cover for me!
Don't Bet Parlays!

[monet]

Hey monet. Keep killin' 'em.


I hope you saw my teaser in the other thread (Ravens/Steelers Under teased with Texans/Dallas Over). I'm getting superstitious now. Literally everything I posted here has made money. That may stop with my Vols at 50-1 to win NCAA title. They may not make the cut. I'm hoping it comes down to a "If A happens, they are in; If B they are not." Then I could hedge pre-playoff. At those odds, I have some open teasers waiting for good use.

Still shopping for some other longshot squads. I have nothing at this point. Penn State, Ohio State, Texas all overrated and short odds.

I have a brilliant observation regarding the playoff, which I will do a blog about. The SEC got snookered in a way. Why do you agree to a format where all of these fast, bombardier SEC teams (that includes everyone but Tennessee) get to play road games at higher rated teams in 10-degree weather? LOL. They cut their own throats. They probably have three of the four best teams in the country, and they will all be on the road in winter. Duhhhhhh. I knew I'd get to use a line about SEC SATs versus Big 10 sometime.

I missed it but I kinda hate teasers.
I don't understand your teasers and hedging.
You don't understand my Parlay Betting.
We Even.

[redietz]

Well, now my head is really messed up. Vols are the 11th ranked team for a 12-team playoff, but as of right now would not make it. LOL.

SEC and Big 10 will wind up bailing on the NCAA and having their own playoff, which actually makes more sense that the current situation.

Damn, I have a decent chunk on this. It was about a C- investment, but I did it, mainly because there was nothing else. I did consider Indiana to win the Big 10 but failed to pull the trigger. Also considered SMU at long odds for the national title, but I delayed on them, and they looked so lousy the first two weeks I passed. They changed QBs and look much better. I wanted Ole Miss, but their odds were too short. Everybody was on them early. I'm actually surprised they lost the games they did.

[redietz]

This Vols situation brings back memories of me taking TCU at 100-1 to win the national title when they had what Karen described as "ninjas" on defense. I saw them play one game and said, "Holy hell."

So they went undefeated, with a game to go were second ranked for a two-team playoff, won their last game, then got voted down to third. LOL.

That was the year Oregon played Cam Newton's Auburn squad for the title after Auburn ponied up half a mill for Cam's dad back when it was illegal.

[kewlJ]

Here is the problem Red. In the highly successful NCAA basketball tournament, the NCAA can reward and include many smaller, lesser schools that have had good seasons at their level, in the smaller conferences. These school have little to no chance of winning the whole thing, but when one of them knocks off one of the big boys, a larger, more talented school in the first of second round, well that is what is so special about March Madness.

Apparently the NCAA wants to duplicate that with football, providing a path for teams from lesser conferences, rewarding them for a good season against lesser competition. The problem is there is not 64 or 68 slots like basketball. There is 12. So when a Boise State who has had a great season, with a great running back under consideration for the hielaman, against lesser completion is given one of the few 12 spots, it means a much better school like a Tennessee will be left out. They really have to decide, do they want the 12 best schools to compete for the championship or do they want to create a path for smaller schools, rewarding a good season against lesser competition.

Even more extreme....what if Army gets in? They are NOT one of the top 12 schools. They are not one of the top 25 schools. BUT they have had a really nice season against lesser competition. Should they be rewarded for that or should it be the best 12 teams competing for the college football championship. THAT is what the NCAA is going to have to decide next.

In my mind it should be the 12 best college teams, but that would shut the door on 80% of college teams that play football. But you just can't duplicate what basketball can do with 64, or now 68 slots available when you only have 12 slots like football. And if you add more teams to the tournament, you will be playing college football past the superbowl, right up until March madness time.

Unfortunately for you Red, Tennessee is one of the best 12 teams, but damn it they lost some games. They have nothing to cry about. They had a path. They lost some games including one they had no business losing.

. .

[redietz]

I don't think Tennessee is very good, but they have done enough given who everyone else has played.

One of the problems is that each game is treated the same regardless of when in the season it takes place. What I mean by that is a season is a chronological stream, not building blocks that can be taken in and out of each other's places. So when Tennessee handles Oklahoma in Oklahoma early, that contributed mightily to the fall of Oklahoma season-wise. The Oklahoma that showed up for that game is not the same Oklahoma that gets their asses kicked in November after collapsing in a heap and having a third of their team ready to transfer. Two different teams.

If you blast a team early, is what I'm saying, it often means more than if you blast them after they've waved a white flag on the season.

For those logic/stat buffs, what I'm suggesting is that fucking your niece when she's 15 is not the same as fucking her when she's 25 (sorry, little shocking ribaldness to loosen your minds up). To assign identical statistical quantities to those events (either playing Oklahoma or fucking your niece) when they are separated in time is a fundamental error in both logic and math.

Finally, take Texas. Their "quality wins" are against Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Despite this, nobody is suggesting they stay home. In fact, the Arkansas game, which they won, looked very much like the game Tennessee lost to Arkansas, except Texas hung on. The games were very, very similar.

[kewlJ]

Well you gotta win the games on your schedule. If you don't you have nothing to cry about. You are a basketball fan right Red? I am a big Nova fan. Ever since Jay wright retired, Villanova starts terrible every year. They lose games in November they have no business losing...cupcake games that are only there to pad your schedule. They come January and February when they are playing better and work their way back to "the bubble", they really aren't on the bubble. Not with losses that the NCAA categorized as "bad losses" to weaker, lesser teams.

Last year it was losses to Drexel, Penn and St Joes. You lose those games (big 5 games BTW) in November before the season gets rolling, you have no chance. THIS year they have already lost to Columbia and St Joes. Columbia!! at Home. They are all but eliminated from the big dance before Thanksgiving. Before they have played a single big east conference game. No matter what...you gotta win the games on your schedule that you are supposed to win. Villanova hasn't been doing that and Tennessee football didn't do that against Arkansas. And when you don't, you have nothing to cry about.

[kewlJ]

before the footabll season begins you can look at the schedule and see the path for each team. For Tennessee, because they didn't play Texas, which was not their fault, but rather the fault of creating conferences that are too big, their season boiled down to 2 games. Alabama and Georgia. Win Both and you are in. Split them and you are in (assuming you win all the other games you are supposed to win). But if you lose a game that you shouldn't, then splitting probably isn't good enough unless things just happen to break for you.

Once you lose a game you shouldn't, you HAVE to win both those games. And they didn't. They have nothing to cry about.

[monet]

I don't care who's in goal... Jets Puck Line with a Sizeable Bet.

[NateBlazewind]

Interesting call! What odds are you seeing on the Jets Puck Line right now? Curious if you factored in recent performance or any injuries.

[monet]

Interesting call! What odds are you seeing on the Jets Puck Line right now? Curious if you factored in recent performance or any injuries.

Puck Line +160
Jets are on Fire.
Penguins Suck this year.
Doesn't mean it's a lock but it's 90%+

[redietz]

before the footabll season begins you can look at the schedule and see the path for each team. For Tennessee, because they didn't play Texas, which was not their fault, but rather the fault of creating conferences that are too big, their season boiled down to 2 games. Alabama and Georgia. Win Both and you are in. Split them and you are in (assuming you win all the other games you are supposed to win). But if you lose a game that you shouldn't, then splitting probably isn't good enough unless things just happen to break for you.

Once you lose a game you shouldn't, you HAVE to win both those games. And they didn't. They have nothing to cry about.

Good to know that you are as sure of college football as you are of everything else.

Old Jungle Saying: Nothing Travels Like Expertise.

That's sarcasm, Sheldon, depending on how you read that line.

I guess that's why "APs" are considered, to use a line I apply to mickey, "Leonardo Da APs." They take grade school math, a couple of card-counting lessons, read Max Rubin, and voila, experts at blackjack, sports betting, video poker, comps hustling, and probability in general.

Axelwolf and Shackleford (he of the adjunct professor gig) are perfect examples. Can you think of anyone else? LOL.

You know, me posting here is ridiculous. I have some card counter/male whore (depending on which posts you read; add them up) AP-'splainin' to me how I should interpret a college football team's schedule. I mean, good God, Billy Walters wouldn't be that condescending and full of himself.

You guys enjoy your expertise.

[monet]

before the footabll season begins you can look at the schedule and see the path for each team. For Tennessee, because they didn't play Texas, which was not their fault, but rather the fault of creating conferences that are too big, their season boiled down to 2 games. Alabama and Georgia. Win Both and you are in. Split them and you are in (assuming you win all the other games you are supposed to win). But if you lose a game that you shouldn't, then splitting probably isn't good enough unless things just happen to break for you.

Once you lose a game you shouldn't, you HAVE to win both those games. And they didn't. They have nothing to cry about.

Good to know that you are as sure of college football as you are of everything else.

Old Jungle Saying: Nothing Travels Like Expertise.

That's sarcasm, Sheldon, depending on how you read that line.

I guess that's why "APs" are considered, to use a line I apply to mickey, "Leonardo Da APs." They take grade school math, a couple of card-counting lessons, read Max Rubin, and voila, experts at blackjack, sports betting, video poker, comps hustling, and probability in general.

Axelwolf and Shackleford (he of the adjunct professor gig) are perfect examples. Can you think of anyone else? LOL.

You know, me posting here is ridiculous. I have some card counter/male whore (depending on which posts you read; add them up) AP-'splainin' to me how I should interpret a college football team's schedule. I mean, good God, Billy Walters wouldn't be that condescending and full of himself.

You guys enjoy your expertise.

Wait!
Don't Go.
Come back Red.
I need some Riddles!!

[The Boz]

Riddles?

What’s fat as fuck, can’t be trusted, hasn’t seen it’s own cock in years, looks homeless and is a sucker the sports books love?

I know, way too easy.

[kewlJ]

Riddles?

What’s fat as fuck, can’t be trusted, hasn’t seen it’s own cock in years, looks homeless and is a sucker the sports books love?

I know, way too easy.

Yeah, but how much money did you bet on his pick the Winnepeg Jets tonight Boz? You trash him (and that is between you and him), but I know you are tagging along just as I am.

[monet]

Oh Great.
Y'all in here jinxing me!
Now I'm gonna lose 13 Hunge.
Whatever.
The safer bet was probably the Over.
But I ain't passing up +160 for an at worse coin flip.

[monet]

I don't care who's in goal... Jets Puck Line with a Sizeable Bet.

Interesting call! What odds are you seeing on the Jets Puck Line right now? Curious if you factored in recent performance or any injuries.

Puck Line +160
Jets are on Fire.
Penguins Suck this year.
Doesn't mean it's a lock but it's 90%+

Fucking Refs tried to cheat me.
That wasn't a Fucking Trip, that guy lost an edge and fell down on his own.
And the Refs didn't call an obvious Trip against the Penguins with 4 minutes to play.
WHATEVER!
Open Net Goal comes through like always and we win 4-1.
I won something like $2076 and I actually moved the line from +160 to +140.
Stupid 3- and 400-dollar bets at the kiosk.
That Fucking Book is Scarred.
They're also SCARED!

[monet]

Oh yeah, I also parlayed 200 on the Jets Puck Line with the Detroit Lions -7.5 for something like 4.2 to 1.
And another 100-dollar four teamer with Jets PL, Lions -7.5, Eagles -3 and the Chiefs -11.
That one pays 18 to 1.
Dabbling in the NFL but we all know the NHL Puck Line is where the easy money lives.
Wouldn't mind checking Druff's Picks if he didn't post with only 2 minutes to go.