Dan Druff's 2025 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

Focusing on an ancient man today, Mr. Verlander.

Anaheim Angels (Kikuchi) -120 vs San Francisco (Verlander) - FIRST 5 INNINGS
Angels/SF - OVER 4.5 first 5 innings -115

Starts soon

[Dan Druff]

Tied first 5 game, lost over above.

---

I've been in Arizona all week so I haven't had time to post picks, but now I can start up again.

Here's some Saturday MLB for you:

Baltimore (Morton) at Detroit (Maeda/bullpen) GAME 2 - Over 5 -105 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

Morton has an ERA near 11 and is 41 1/2 years old. He truly seems done at this point. Maeda has also not looked good either, but he's only an opener.



Dodgers (Sasaki) -136 -1.5 vs Pittsburgh (Keller)

Chalkiest of chalk plays, but I believe the Dodgers will break out of their slump today.



Philadelphia (Luzardo) at Cubs (B. Brown) - Under 7 -118

Brown has looked increasingly better and Luzardo has been super sharp all year. Best thing? Wind blowing in at 13mph.

[Dan Druff]

Two evening baseball bets.

The Padres are getting Arraez back. May not seem huge, but his presence is important in a thin lineup which is also missing Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth.

Somehow Nick Pivetta is off to a great start, as is opposing pitcher Logan Webb. The Giants are 19-10 but a lot of that is smoke and mirrors. I like the Padres at home here.

In the Dodgers game, they face Sandy Alcantara, whose last good year was 2022. He is not pitching well since returning from TJ surgery. The Dodgers are trying to load manage Sasaki and Yamamoto, and are without Snell and Glasnow (big shocker). That means today is a bullpen game, and tomorrow marks the return of Tony Gonsolin (remember him?)

This one feels like it's going to have a lot of early offense.

I'm going with a first-5 here because there is some possibility of a Dodgers blowout if they get to Alcantara fast, and sometimes that can cause the opposing offense to die and basically give up, especially a weak hitting team on the road like the Marlins. I wouldn't want to see something like a 6-0 Dodgers early lead turn into a 7-1 final, and miss the over.

San Diego (Pivetta) +107 vs San Francisco (Webb)

Dodgers (bullpen) vs Miami (S. Alcantara) - OVER 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

Won both tonight.

On Saturday, the Orioles one is no action because Morton didn't start. My actual bet on this got refunded. Morton came in during the 2nd inning. FYI when I list the pitchers like that, the bet only counts if both listed pitchers start. If I write "bullpen" then the bet only hinges upon the pitcher listed for the other team (or neither if it's said bullpen for both).

On the other two games that day, I won the Dodgers and lost the Philly under.

[Dan Druff]

Toronto (bullpen) -105 vs Boston (Giolito) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

Giolito hasn't pitched in MLB since 2023. Toronto's presumed bulk reliever, Lauer, also hasn't pitched in MLB since 2023.

However, Lauer has looked better in his minor league starts, and Giolito has been lousy for many years prior to this.

[Dan Druff]

Results so far:

3/27:
Mets (Holmes) at Houston (F. Valdez) - Under 4 -105 - FIRST 5 INNINGS - WON +0.95
Minnesota (P. Lopez) at St. Louis (S. Gray) - Over 4 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS - WON +0.87

3/29
Cubs (Imanaga) at Arizona (Pfaadt) - Under 8.5 +100 - WON +1.00

3/31
Cleveland (L. Ortiz) at San Diego (Hart) - OVER 4.5 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS - WON +0.87

4/1
Cubs (Steele) at Sacramento (Severino) - Over 4.5 +100 FIRST 5 INNINGS - WON +1.00

4/7
Cincinnati (Greene) +150 at San Francisco (Webb) - WON +1.50

4/8
Baltimore (Morton) at Arizona (M. kelly) - OVER 5 -115 First 5 innings - WON +0.87

4/12
Dodgers (Sasaki) vs Cubs (B. Brown) - OVER 5 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS -105 - LOST -1.00

4/16
Yankees (C Schmidt) vs Kansas City (Bubic) - Under 4.5 -125 FIRST 5 INNINGS - LOST -1.00
Colorado (Marquez) at Dodgers (B. Miller) - OVER 5 +105 FIRST 5 INNINGS - WON +1.05

4/20
Anaheim Angels (Kikuchi) -120 vs San Francisco (Verlander) - FIRST 5 INNINGS - TIED
Angels/SF - OVER 4.5 first 5 innings -115 - LOST -1.00

4/26
Baltimore (Morton) at Detroit (Maeda/bullpen) GAME 2 - Over 5 -105 - FIRST 5 INNINGS - VOID
Dodgers (Sasaki) -136 -1.5 vs Pittsburgh (Keller) - WON +0.74
Philadelphia (Luzardo) at Cubs (B. Brown) - Under 7 -118 - LOST -1.00

4/29
San Diego (Pivetta) +107 vs San Francisco (Webb) - WON +1.07
Dodgers (bullpen) vs Miami (S. Alcantara) - OVER 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS - WON +0.87

4/30
Toronto (bullpen) -105 vs Boston (Giolito) - FIRST 5 INNINGS - LOST -1.00

TOTAL: 11-5-1 (+5.79 units)

[Dan Druff]

I like fading ancient pitchers.

San Francisco (Verlander) vs Colorado (Freeland) - OVER 4.5 -102 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

Lost yesterday

Today:

The White Sox are actually hitting.

They've averaged over 5 runs per game over the past six.

Framber Valdez has had 6 starts so far this year. Two were duds, two were great, two were decent. Overall he has a 4 ERA. He did go 8 frames on the last start, so perhaps that might cause a bit of fatigue this time. However, the White Sox starter went 7 2/3 in his last start.

Note that the line has moved to lessen the payout for the White Sox despite most of the public (predictably) betting Houston as a 2-to-1 favorite.

White Sox (J. Cannon) +199 vs Houston (F. Valdez)

[theywontpayontuesday]

I took $200 late when the score was 0-2 $200 -1.5 -105 and $200 CHI money line -240. My bet felt bad and risky because your predictions were becoming reality very soon and 2-4 was a scary point.

[Dan Druff]

I'd have been afraid to take -1.5 on the White Sox with just a 2-0 lead! Glad it worked out.

My +199 win wiped out my losses for the previous 2 days.

[Dan Druff]

Backing the Pffadtso today, even going against my prior advice to bet small home favs.

Pfaadt is coming into his own this year, and 0-5 Aaron Nola, despite improving last time out, has gone the other direction.

Arizona (Pfaaddt) +102 at Philadelphia (Nola)

[theywontpayontuesday]

I'm just curious about yout process making these picks. You kind of explain it when you're posting them, but it that it?

[Dan Druff]

Lost the above.

Wind blowing out big time in SF today. Marquez has given up 25 runs over past 4 starts.

Colorado (Marquez) at San Francisco (Webb) - Over 7.5 +105

[Dan Druff]

I'm just curious about yout process making these picks. You kind of explain it when you're posting them, but it that it?

Process has several facets to it:

- Weather

- Sharp action

- Reverse line movement

- Pitching matchups / recent history

- Lineups


This year I've put a lot of focus upon bad pitching and fading it. The successful +199 White Sox pick the other day was more of a game I saw as closer to a tossup which paid 2-to-1, so that was a simple matter of seeing value in the line.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Hey ESPNbet has $100 3 HR protection. If your team loses but has 3 HRs, you get a $100 bonus bet if bet pregame. I'll follow if you can research these likely games. Thanks for your previous reply, will have to do some research to understand your reply. This $100 bonus bet applies and is only up to $100, if you bet $100 cash.

I'm buzzed if it doesn't seem clear.

[kewlJ]

Here is an interesting "angle" I have been playing some this year. The Nationals, A's and Chicago White Socks are all bad team. A's and Nationals surprisingly close to .500 one over one under, White Sox much further behind. But all three of these teams have some really good young players that are rapidly improving. More hitters than pitchers. They are not going to win games necessarily because of suspect pitching, but they score runs in most games. So I look for games that their team run total is 3, 3.5 while still in the -110 range and you are golden (long-term). They might not win, but a 6-4, 8-5 loss is a win. And some of the games, they actually win 7-5, 7-6

The Cubs have a powerhouse hitting teams. Probably more so than the Dodgers Yankees and Phillies right now, who everyone thinks have the great hitting line-up. (I think Yanks are over-rated). So the cubs are averaging more than 6 runs a game, so far. But their team run total for most games is 5ish, sometimes 4 and a half. People jump on these early in the day, so the amount you are laying moves quickly to -130, -140 which is unattractive, but if you hit it early or even the night before, you can get 4.5 or 5 at -110 or -115.

The other teams mentioned also all score close to 6 runs a game, but their totals are also closer to 6 runs a game @ 5 or 5.5. It hasn't caught up with the Cubs yet, although it is starting to.

[Dan Druff]

This one has moved a lot, so I forgive you if you don't bet it at the reduced line.

I only saw it now.

Reds' Singer has been incredibly solid for all of his 2025 starts. Rookie AJ Smith-Shawver has been somewhat shaky, but notably he took a ball off his elbow on his last start (ouch!), and I'm not convinced he's 100%.

Interestingly, the 5-inning line is -105 Reds, so that speaks a lot in favor of Singer.

Cincinnati (Singer) +114 at Atlanta (Smith-Shawver)

[Dan Druff]

No pitcher is streakier than Miles Mikolas. For the last several years, he's either been super effective or awful, with little in between.

The 2025 Mikolas seems to be on a roll. He's off back-to-back zero-run starts, and truthfully he's only had one really bad start this year (a complete beatdown in Boston in early April).

Carmen Mlodzinski has had a miserable year for Pittsburgh. St. Louis is at home, they're the better team, and home teams have been doing better than most years -- at least thus far.

I like the moderate favorite price here.

St. Louis (Mikolas) -131 at Pittsburgh (Mlodzinski)

[AxelWolf]

I'm always late to your betting parties.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I'm always late to your betting parties.

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