Professional Sportsbetting

[kewlJ]

that's meaningless because we don't know what the Actual EV was.

Through all the shit, one thing always emerges as the difference between real advantage players and the "posers". Expected value, an understanding of expected value and an understanding of long-term results which are all tied together.

And sooner or later with these "posers", that lack of understanding....exposes them. We have seen it with Singer, Dawg and now Dietz. And all the pictures inside an RV at a dealership, or of expensive watches and chips and money, and in the case of Dietz all the rigged little "monitored" contests (a tool of touts) can't change that.

You either understand expected value and what that means long-term....or you don't.

[mickeycrimm]

Redietz.

There's too much BS in this thread to read.

I made you an offer. Please �� respond with a simple yes, let's negotiate... or NO, I'm good.
.

LOL. Ditto. It's football season, buddy. I haven't read two-thirds of this. I have zero idea what you said. I need this Miami/Buff game to go Over 40 or it'll be a bad evening. Plus I tried to middle Rice/Charlotte.

So instead of me reading this nonsense, just email me: integritysports@aol.com. Let me know what the offer is and all that. I'll be jammed until Monday, but I will respond.

He made the proposal right here. All it takes is a yes which you could do right here. But you want to move it away from VCT so you don't have to say no in public. Because we all know you will never take axel up on his offer.

[MDawg]

Whether kewlJ is a "card counting AP" is in question. He definitely understands card counting, and has likely done it before, but whether he actively makes money from it is in question. I don't mind kewlJ's stories about himself being challenged.

UNKewlJ is a male prostitute who plays a lil blackjack as cover for his hustling is all.

Very well written summary MDawg.

[Rob.Singer]

that's meaningless because we don't know what the Actual EV was.

Through all the shit, one thing always emerges as the difference between real advantage players and the "posers". Expected value, an understanding of expected value and an understanding of long-term results which are all tied together.

And sooner or later with these "posers", that lack of understanding....exposes them. We have seen it with Singer, Dawg and now Dietz. And all the pictures inside an RV at a dealership, or of expensive watches and chips and money, and in the case of Dietz all the rigged little "monitored" contests (a tool of touts) can't change that.

You either understand expected value and what that means long-term....or you don't.

So mdawg's being a long-term rich guy doesn't provoke you?

[kewlJ]

So mdawg's being a long-term rich guy doesn't provoke you?

Not at all. Why would it. Has nothing to do with me.

Most people I know make more money than me. If someone has done well in life, outside of gambling, MrV and Boz come to mind, power to them. I am genuinely happy for them. As far as gambling, since this is supposed to be a gambling forum, almost all full-time APs make more money than me. I am happy for all of them.

I am where I am in life and I am pretty happy with that and pretty happy with what I have accomplished with card counting/advantage play.

I have never had a problem with anyone because they make or have more money that me. I have a problem with people like you and Dawg that come to gambling forums, populated with real players and tell stories that are just silly. You Know....defy the math and the way the industry works.

[MDawg]

Wow, the kewl-groomer still squealing like a little bitch, amazing, hey hey!!!!

[regnis]

Redietz gave me one game that won

[Rob.Singer]

So mdawg's being a long-term rich guy doesn't provoke you?

Not at all. Why would it. Has nothing to do with me.

Most people I know make more money than me. If someone has done well in life, outside of gambling, MrV and Boz come to mind, power to them. I am genuinely happy for them. As far as gambling, since this is supposed to be a gambling forum, almost all full-time APs make more money than me. I am happy for all of them.

I am where I am in life and I am pretty happy with that and pretty happy with what I have accomplished with card counting/advantage play.

I have never had a problem with anyone because they make or have more money that me. I have a problem with people like you and Dawg that come to gambling forums, populated with real players and tell stories that are just silly. You Know....defy the math and the way the industry works.

Kew, they're "silly" to people like you because you don't want to believe them. You refuse to understand how the math works in the real world. You are stuck on the flawed assumption--likely due to a lack of formal training--that -EV over the long-term means a gambler HAS to lose, when that is absolutely not the case.

Although uncommon, there are still numbers of -EV gamblers who's long-term results do beat the odds, especially when the odds against them are miniscule (as in the vp games I've always played). The bell curve exists for a reason. And I'm not including the large profits I've made on the DU bug that you have trouble accepting simply because it's me--a critic of you--which truly IS "silly".

It's almost like you're thinking that if you were to accept even 50% of the claims, it would negatively affect your life somehow. So if you really don't care how much wealth others have or what other people make gambling, you would look beyond their criticisms of you when you're formulating your positions. After all, you have definitely earned all the backlash you've received from just about everybody, with all your phony stories & lies you've been caught in.

And you ought to pay more attention to all those accurate quotes mdawg keeps posting, with you being the recipient. Your response to those makes you look even more of a fool every time. Here he is taking little time to run a train over you, and you wreck hours and hours of your days with longass replies that say nothing new. No one reads your repeat whines.

One more hint in retrospective: way back when, as you were concocting your bj life story, why did you go with an "income" that makes you look like you also need to wait tables to survive?

AQ was right--you're a fascinating study, only it has nothing to do with gambling.

[jdaewoo]

The retard pretending to hit jackpots in someone's basement (he can't afford a basement) calls someone else "interesting".

[redietz]

KewlJ's math problems are really pretty obvious. If he bothered to email Shackleford (or anyone who has taught probability), he could get straightened out in about 20 seconds.

In a nutshell, he seems determined to both (1) use trends, which are clear indicators of a non-random process, for his betting, as in his first-two-weeks-NFL-underdogs angle. And yet he is also determined to (2) use the probability of random events to establish the credentials of his "let's all calculate the 'EV' of sports betting approach." Trying to do both, and kewlJ has dedicated hundreds of posts to each, is contradictory. The absurdity is built into what he is arguing, but he either fails to see it or doesn't care.

Now I suppose you can get around the inappropriate assignment of the term "EV" to non-random events by saying that yes, he knows the EV calculations for something like sports betting are all just rough subjective estimates when you try to use them going forward. And that this fact means that a hundred different "APs" doing the "EV" estimates may come to a hundred different conclusions. Sports betting can yield some estimates that have no precision going forward, and vary person to person, and what is the utility of that? So you can say, "I calculated the EV?" Basically, kewlj's EV estimates are just his subjective opinions with very little precision. So why not just say, "My opinion is" or "My opinion of what the EV might be is?"

Well, those last two questions are somewhat rhetorical. Everyone reading here knows why KewlJ keeps droning on about this stuff. It amps up his faux expertise. It provides some false mathematical teddy bear to hug at night after he loses that day betting sports.

This is all grade school, fundamental stuff. You have to know about non-random events to predict non-random events. Big surprise. And a person who knows about the non-random events usually outperforms the person who does not. Another big surprise. Trying to hammer a non-random peg into a random hole may make you feel better about what you're doing, and I guess it's better than taking medication for anxiety. But maybe not.

[accountinquestion]

I believe using a trend that has been made public and is shared as part of a community means it is more objective within that community. No one else has a problem and we all roughly understand the limitations.

[redietz]

I believe using a trend that has been made public and is shared as part of a community means it is more objective within that community. No one else has a problem and we all roughly understand the limitations.

There are so many logical problems in what you just wrote that it boggles the mind. It would take me an hour to deconstruct that post above, and frankly I won't bother to do it here.

But all that aside, you realize all you are doing is aggrandizing personal opinions by slapping some "EV" labels on them and doing some pretend expertise dance? And expecting people "outside the 'community'" -- I'm running out of apostrophes for this stuff -- to buy what you're selling because you know grade school math and use some jargon. You don't even have records of results, and if you did, you'd explain the losing by importing some "aw shucks, it was variance killed the beast." That was a line from the end of King Kong, by the way.

It's amazing you're not all flat broke, but keep with the sports betting. You'll get there.

P.S. I have to add this. You do realize that the "sports betting community" dwarfs the "AP community" by a factor of what I'll generously say is 10 but could be a hundred. And literally everybody knew about the underdog-first-two-week-NFL-schtick. So you have a perverted and inverted view of your gnostic knowledge. You were in the ignorant minority compared to the "sports betting community" when it came to this particular angle. There were likely 50,000 people who were aware of this before kewlJ ever put finger to keyboard.

The arrogance of you dudes is friggin' amazing.

Why do you think I used an anti-angle for the Heritage contest and all other similar contests the first week? Because everyone was doing what you were doing. This is not rocket science, and you guys are not Einstein.

[kewlJ]

Kew, they're "silly" to people like you because you don't want to believe them. You refuse to understand how the math works in the real world. You are stuck on the flawed assumption--likely due to a lack of formal training--that -EV over the long-term means a gambler HAS to lose, when that is absolutely not the case.

Although uncommon, there are still numbers of -EV gamblers who's long-term results do beat the odds, especially when the odds against them are miniscule (as in the vp games I've always played). The bell curve exists for a reason. And I'm not including the large profits I've made on the DU bug that you have trouble accepting simply because it's me--a critic of you--which truly IS "silly".

It's almost like you're thinking that if you were to accept even 50% of the claims, it would negatively affect your life somehow. So if you really don't care how much wealth others have or what other people make gambling, you would look beyond their criticisms of you when you're formulating your positions. After all, you have definitely earned all the backlash you've received from just about everybody, with all your phony stories & lies you've been caught in.

And you ought to pay more attention to all those accurate quotes mdawg keeps posting, with you being the recipient. Your response to those makes you look even more of a fool every time. Here he is taking little time to run a train over you, and you wreck hours and hours of your days with longass replies that say nothing new. No one reads your repeat whines.

One more hint in retrospective: way back when, as you were concocting your bj life story, why did you go with an "income" that makes you look like you also need to wait tables to survive?

AQ was right--you're a fascinating study, only it has nothing to do with gambling.

2 points Rob, then I have to settle in watching football as I have about 30 wagers going to today (volume betting). Very first line you say "I don't want to believe them". Don't you think that works both ways. Since I began on this forum, I explain the different thinks I do in more detail than anyone, and often how I do it, and why. And how the math works with everything I do. And yet there are about half this forum of KJ haters that refuse to believe it because they don't want to believe it... including YOU Rob.

Next, you EV comments. Bell curve hun? So now you are claiming you have won because you are on the extreme rare side of the bell curve, meaning you have just been lucky? That is the great Rob Singer play. Get lucky playing -EV? No I don't buy it Rob. Not in the long-run which includes the length of time (lifetime) you have gambled.

Look, it remains pretty simple. Gambling is math. Advantage play is math. The casinos win because every game offered is +EV for them off the top. For a player to win he needs to find or figure something that flips that and makes at least some of his play +EV. And there are all kinds of things that can do that. ANYTHING else is just gambling.

That is it for now. I am sure Red has written many goofy comments about me. Can't deal with that right now. Football Sunday.

ps: also I have made over 2 million dollars in my 22 year AP career. 100k , a year isn't "get rich money", but it is a decent wage, especially living in Las Vegas where cost of living is lower. I don't need to wait tables. That is more of your wishful thinking, because you don't want to admit that I have done well.

[MDawg]

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

[jdaewoo]

This retard doesn't gamble.

[accountinquestion]

Isn't there a general consensus that tends to drive the money? A shared set of views outside those of the fans of either team (or pro bettors)? And would this sentiment which translates into wagered money have value in being labeled for discussions? Ie "the public"

Also if a trend wins for many years then redietz claims it will be corrected in the lines but what if the same mistakes are made by "the public" every year and the weakness in the lines helps the books in general? It does not follow that the trend would be corrected. It simply does not make sense to the books. Given how sharps are always being limtied/cut-off, it helps ensure that the vast majority of action is with the public. If the trends being discussed consistently help the books and hurt "the public" then why would they change it???

Let's be clear - since there seems to be more confusion. It isn't the games that have trends it is that the lines have trends. At least that seems to make more sense to me.

Redietz you forgot to respond to my post and your thoughts. I editted my post slightly so it makes more sense.

See above.

I understand it is football season so this was probably overlooked. I'm not as important as Kewl.

Redietz can't respond because he had it soooo wrong and can't weasel out of it with fake bravado.

[accountinquestion]

I believe using a trend that has been made public and is shared as part of a community means it is more objective within that community. No one else has a problem and we all roughly understand the limitations.

There are so many logical problems in what you just wrote that it boggles the mind. It would take me an hour to deconstruct that post above, and frankly I won't bother to do it here.

But all that aside, you realize all you are doing is aggrandizing personal opinions by slapping some "EV" labels on them and doing some pretend expertise dance? And expecting people "outside the 'community'" -- I'm running out of apostrophes for this stuff -- to buy what you're selling because you know grade school math and use some jargon. You don't even have records of results, and if you did, you'd explain the losing by importing some "aw shucks, it was variance killed the beast." That was a line from the end of King Kong, by the way.

It's amazing you're not all flat broke, but keep with the sports betting. You'll get there.

P.S. I have to add this. You do realize that the "sports betting community" dwarfs the "AP community" by a factor of what I'll generously say is 10 but could be a hundred. And literally everybody knew about the underdog-first-two-week-NFL-schtick. So you have a perverted and inverted view of your gnostic knowledge. You were in the ignorant minority compared to the "sports betting community" when it came to this particular angle. There were likely 50,000 people who were aware of this before kewlJ ever put finger to keyboard.

The arrogance of you dudes is friggin' amazing.

Why do you think I used an anti-angle for the Heritage contest and all other similar contests the first week? Because everyone was doing what you were doing. This is not rocket science, and you guys are not Einstein.

When everyone knows the trend and how the edge of the trend is calculated then they are all working off a set and known methodology. Therefore the EV calculation and therefore "EV" is objective even if you don't want to admit it because of your frail ego.

Really, thats what this all is .. your frail ego.

[kewlJ]

I had 34 wagers toady. 2 games with no wagers were Eagles (didn't think they could cover and they did) and Pheonix cards game. All other games had/have multiple wagers. THAT is what volume betting is....to get through rollover quickly.

In the early set of games, it looked bad for most of the day. Then at the end started looking better. If Houston had scored in the final minute I would have been 12-10, but they didn't and I went 11-11. still 12 wagers on the remaining 4 games, excluding cards.

[MDawg]

Part of the mental illness is that UNKewlJ thinks anyone believes his nonsense. There are times when he could have come up with at least plausible nonsense though, but did not.

[redietz]

MDawg, let's compare, shall we? I'm a professional. I bet nothing today. Kewlj is KewlJ. He bet everything. I'm sure he has an angle, like maybe he's picking teams with bird nicknames or something. Or bird nicknames as favorites unless they are playing on the road against teams in dark helmets. You know, the usual stuff. Well researched.

And I believe him. If you bet ten bucks a game, the most the wagers can cost you is coffee and a Danish.