ASM revisited again!

[MDawg]

But I am NOT going to take it from the owner of the forum and continue to contribute to the forum.

Are we talking about a FAREWELL, Randolph?

[kewlJ]

It’s not just one package of freeplay. I’ve played off hundreds maybe thousands of packages of freeplay. So what are the odds I would hit something significant in one of those packages? The chance is actually pretty good.

Thank you mickeycrimm! This is the answer from a real AP who understands. Chances of hitting something from a single block of $50 free play. Not good. Chances from total FP accumulated over a lifetime. Still not great (longshot) but better. Certainly not impossible.

AinQ says he has never heard of an AP hitting a $100k jackpot? Umm..don't we have a guy on this forum that claims he hit a million dollar jackpot? Ok lets let that one go.

But seriously can you do the math to show this 1 in 1 trillion odds you came up with?

Smurgerbooger says 1) KJ says he rarely played FP. What the fuck is that? Where did that come from. Me personally? well my partner played most of it, but we together partnered on the mailer play here in Vegas for a decade. That was all about FP. probably earned and played 100's of thousands of dollars in FP between the two of us. And that goes right back to mickeycrimm's post. It wasn't about that one block of $50 FP. That just happens to be one we (my Partner) got very, very lucky on.

Next from AinQ: APs hitting $100 are rare. What does rare mean. Players hit a $100k jackpot numerous times a year in Vegas. What percentage are APs? I have no idea. You seem to think none. You also say the people that hit $100 have been banging away for a long time. I disagree. I will bet half of that kind of a jackpot are hit by players just taking a small flyer, maybe on the way out the door or out of town. A couple of those jackpots have been hit at the airport, IIRC, so almost surely taking a flyer on the way out of town.

But let me get specific a minute about the hit my partner hit from a single block of FP. 1) I don't even consider that as having anything to do with advantage play. That was a lucky, lucky hit. What we played with our FP would never be on something like that. You know why he did play that. We got that FP at a casino on a trip, by showing a Vegas players card when we signed up. One of THOSE Promotions. And we would have played it just like we handled all our other FP Advantage play, playing video poker. Except this casino had NO video poker. None at all. Upon realizing that, I just said play whatever you want. And presto! Never loved the guy more than THAT day. (not really true)

As a final question back at you AinQ: Does this kind of thing.....something that is unlikely, and you don't believe, what you call "Proof" of a lie? because that like everything else about you isn't "proof" of anything. It is a guy (you) saying "I have a hard time believing that". And that goofball is what you should have said. "I have a hard time believing this or that". NOT "I can prove it" when they are things you can NOT prove.

You guys are going to have to try again. Huddle up or DM each other and try again.

[kewlJ]

. That was all about FP. probably earned and played 100's of thousands of dollars in FP between the two of us. .

Just thinking about it, 100's of thousands in FP is way short. We got 40-50 mailers every month, with hundreds to a thousand of dollars in each, for more than 8 years. Our total FP played had to easily be several millions of dollars in FP played.

[kewlJ]

let me help you guys out with your next accusation. I personally hit a $4000 royal twice of very small blocks of FP at two different casinos. One was Hooters (now OYO) off of only $15 FP. The other was Westgate (maybe still Hilton) off I don't remember but not much more. I remember specifically showing the attendant that I put no money in the machine I was just playing FP or which I had $5 left. they were not impressed or amused.

So what are the chances of hitting a Royal, which occurs 1 in 40,000 spins and doing it not once but twice off of $15 or $20 in FP. Go ahead figure int out, I'll bet it is astronomical. BUT if you are talking a lifetime of FP, let's say I played a quarter of our several million in FP. Now what are the chances of hitting a royal off $500k-$600k in FP. ahhh not so long is it. actually seems like 2 in about 100k spins. Right about expectation.

You guys are digging for shit, but you are doing it backwards. You are looking for a certain answer. there is a word for that in science, but in the end it just doesn't work.

Come on....next one? What else you got?

Maybe Druff can put all this shit into one "trolling KJ with false accusation" thread, so we can free up the rest of the forum for some real legit discussions without all the hijacking by you obsessed freaks.

[kewlJ]

hey, here is one you guys forgot. My partner (again he handled most of the FP play) hit a royal on a 50 play machine from the original 5 cards, meaning all 50 hands were a royal. It was .25 denom, so 50k. Surely you doubters don't believe THAT do you?

Actually, while a nice hit, that kind of hit made it more work to offset, so that was the end of him playing through FP on multi-play hands.

[accountinquestion]

So Mickey, how many APs have you known to hit a $100K+ jackpot where the AP wasn't specifically targeting the bonus?

You didn't answer...

Kewl, why were you not churning the FP on slots? How often did you guys go with slots to play off FP and what were these scenarios where you would do so?

[kewlJ]

I think what I am getting at here is: KJ, real AP, mostly blackjack card counting with some, supplemental other plays including VP for more than a decade (16 years in Vegas with the blackjack). Some of these things may seem "special" but when you look at the totality of it like mickey just broke down, really not that special. Just part of the AP process for doing things with millions of trials like I have both in blackjack and my partner and I in VP.

I am sure someone like mickeycrimm and Axelwolf have an even greater amount of unusual, unlikely stories. It is a shame that is not what this forum is about anymore.

[accountinquestion]

Next from AinQ: APs hitting $100 are rare. What does rare mean. Players hit a $100k jackpot numerous times a year in Vegas. What percentage are APs? I have no idea. You seem to think none. You also say the people that hit $100 have been banging away for a long time. I disagree. I will bet half of that kind of a jackpot are hit by players just taking a small flyer, maybe on the way out the door or out of town. A couple of those jackpots have been hit at the airport, IIRC, so almost surely taking a flyer on the way out of town.

But most APs are not playing high limit slots that are -EV. They are only playing positive spots. When does that happen when it isn't a MHB being targetted? I haven't seen this game - maybe you could describe it so we can try and figure out which one it was?

[accountinquestion]

I think what I am getting at here is: KJ, real AP, mostly blackjack card counting with some, supplemental other plays including VP for more than a decade (16 years in Vegas with the blackjack). Some of these things may seem "special" but when you look at the totality of it like mickey just broke down, really not that special. Just part of the AP process for doing things with millions of trials like I have both in blackjack and my partner and I in VP.

I am sure someone like mickeycrimm and Axelwolf have an even greater amount of unusual, unlikely stories. It is a shame that is not what this forum is about anymore.

So I'm curious how many have APs have Mickey and Axel known that hit a $100k+ jackpot on a machine that wasn't specifically being targeted? I can estimate my 1 in a trillion odds down if they can give us a number. And possibly the machine...

Do you remember the machine Kewl? You can't describe it because it might dox you? What was the procedure they went through? Just cut you a check once they review video?

[kewlJ]

Kewl, why were you not churning the FP on slots? How often did you guys go with slots to play off FP and what were these scenarios where you would do so?

I am not a slot player. briefly was considering a little slot AP this past summer but decided against it.

I think there were two times we did not play off our FP through video poker. The one mentioned at a casino that didn't have VP and a second time for a few weeks at The D, when D stopped allowing FP to be used on VP. So we played off the FP we had on some slots for the remaining cycle.

Eventually and pretty quickly, The D reversed course and we put them back in our VP rotation

[accountinquestion]

Kewl, why were you not churning the FP on slots? How often did you guys go with slots to play off FP and what were these scenarios where you would do so?

I am not a slot player. briefly was considering a little slot AP this past summer but decided against it.

I think there were two times we did not play off our FP through video poker. The one mentioned and a second time for a few weeks at The D, when D stopped allowing FP to be used on VP. So we played off the FP we had on some slots for the remaining cycle.

Eventually and pretty quickly The D reversed course and we put them back in our VP rotation

So you played slots very very little? Why are your comparing stuff to what Mickey says. Mickey lists out all the lifetime coin-in he churned and even you compared this to you but above you seem to have churned very little? I'm confused.

[kewlJ]

Do you remember the machine Kewl? You can't describe it because it might dox you? What was the procedure they went through? Just cut you a check once they review video?

You are STILL trying for some coach belly gottch ya moment. I don't remember the machine my partner hit on. I wasn't even right there when he hit, but was close by. For about the hundredth time, I am not a slot player, don't like or know much about slots and really when I look at a slot machine don't even distinguish between the, they are just slot machines to me.

THAT is my honest answer. But let me ask you something, if I wanted to come up with a different answer, wouldn't it have been extremely easy for me to look up slot machines and pick on that offers a high longshot bonus? I mean if I was the fraud you guys claim, wouldn't I have done that? Either that or taken a picture off some compuetr in my home. I hear someone did that once. Well not HIS home.

[kewlJ]

So you played slots very very little? Why are your comparing stuff to what Mickey says. Mickey lists out all the lifetime coin-in he churned and even you compared this to you but above you seem to have churned very little? I'm confused.

Because it is the same whether VP or slots. Millions of dollars in total Free play played through. You guys want to break off a small piece and make a big deal about a hit. What about all the time we didn't get a big hit playing through FP, maybe didn't even get close to expectation for a block of FP.

You are confused, and I suspect you really are, because you don't know much about what I actually did. And yet you have an opinion on it. And awful lot like Dawg and Singer talking about shit they have no clue about. Big surprise. Do they teach that in trolling 101?

[kewlJ]

I have plans this evening so this will be my final post for the night and maybe for the weekend as I have a lot of sports betting to do tomorrow and Sunday.

Acct in Q, I have always answered any questions and concerns from people. My answers make perfect sense. I can answer in the moment without looking anything up and my story is extremely consistent despite what you trolls claim. Moses used to say my story was consistent because it was worn "smooth". That is kind of silly isn't/wasn't it? My story is consistent because I don't have to remember what I said before. I just have to remember what really happened, which as I get older with so many experiences begins to get a little harder, I admit, especially shit from years ago.

there is nothing THAT unusual about my experiences. a few kind of longshot, or unusual things but only because we are talking about millions of trials over many, many years. When you look big picture, nothing really unusual. Kind of boring actually.

Now like I said I can and do explain everything I can that anyone friend or foe has a question about, except rare instances I might have reason not to. And I answer these concerns in real time without looking anything up. The problem is whichever troll is asking/grilling me, doesn't want to hear the answer. They won't accept the real answer. They have made up their mind not to accept the answer before they have even heard it. They are looking for some gottch ya moment to prove something that isn't there.

Isn't it time for you, who seems like a reasonably intelligent person when he wants to be, to stop throwing in with these trolls and playing this game? You are more than free to not believe anything you like, but really isn't it time to stop all the trolling, gottch ya stuff.

I am who I have said I am. A low to medium level AP, doing some of the more elementary AP stuff and making a modest living from it.

Do me a favor? just think about what I have said. I mean you really want to be a Rob Singer Mdawg troll? A coach belly troll?

[coach belly]

You are STILL trying for some coach belly gottch ya moment.

OK, then...enough of this amateur-hour bullshit.

he doesn't even remember the slot

There is zero chance that anyone would hit their only lifetime 100K jackpot, and not remember what game they were playing.

And this comes from tewlj, who has always claimed to keep meticulous gambling records.

No recollection, no photo, no notes, no big deal at the time? C'mon man...complete bullshit story right there.

Our total FP played had to easily be several millions of dollars in FP played.

Oh, brother.

What was the typical return rate on your freeplay?

That is to say, after running $100 of FP through, how much did you typically cash out for?

Because if your cash-out rate was only 25%, then you made more from FP in 8 years than you have playing BJ for 20 years.

Unless, of course, your claim of running several millions of dollars of freeplay is total nonsense.

while a nice hit, that kind of hit made it more work to offset

What does this mean...work to offset?

[accountinquestion]

Do you remember the machine Kewl? You can't describe it because it might dox you? What was the procedure they went through? Just cut you a check once they review video?

You are STILL trying for some coach belly gottch ya moment. I don't remember the machine my partner hit on. I wasn't even right there when he hit, but was close by. For about the hundredth time, I am not a slot player, don't like or know much about slots and really when I look at a slot machine don't even distinguish between the, they are just slot machines to me.

THAT is my honest answer. But let me ask you something, if I wanted to come up with a different answer, wouldn't it have been extremely easy for me to look up slot machines and pick on that offers a high longshot bonus? I mean if I was the fraud you guys claim, wouldn't I have done that? Either that or taken a picture off some compuetr in my home. I hear someone did that once. Well not HIS home.

I dunno - I was just curious. Maybe you had some memory of some aspect of it. I am just really curious. But fair enough thats what you've said prior - you just don't recall.

To me, given how rare it is, it is very surprising you don't recall but I guess thats just the life of a decades long grizzled AP. I'd goddam for sure remember that machine if such a thing happened to me.

[smurgerburger]

(4) is meant to imply someone wagering a reasonably small amount per (3). Yes you can hit 100k betting $50 a spin on a high denom slot (but then again KJ would already told us that if he were).


ETA

This was supposed to be an addendum to my post a while ago.

[accountinquestion]

So you played slots very very little? Why are your comparing stuff to what Mickey says. Mickey lists out all the lifetime coin-in he churned and even you compared this to you but above you seem to have churned very little? I'm confused.

Because it is the same whether VP or slots. Millions of dollars in total Free play played through. You guys want to break off a small piece and make a big deal about a hit. What about all the time we didn't get a big hit playing through FP, maybe didn't even get close to expectation for a block of FP.

You are confused, and I suspect you really are, because you don't know much about what I actually did. And yet you have an opinion on it. And awful lot like Dawg and Singer talking about shit they have no clue about. Big surprise. Do they teach that in trolling 101?

I don't feel I am confused. I've actually run cards and churned through FP on a small team. Did the whole process from start to finish. I put a lot of thought in that time to what machines were best for various things. I have no desire to wise-up the swarms of failing carders even though I'd be exceptionally unlikely to do it again. Just out of respect to whomever. You see a lot of dumb shit and all the other operators.

Actually I posted a fanny pack with $100k that was the result of that. It had VCT written on a piece of paper too just to kinda show it was mine. No one cares but just saying. People do have pics that sorta demonstrate something.

No - you don't hit 100k jackpots on normal VP. You'd need what? $25 a spin VP and hit a royal? It is not the same.

The fact is you and your team played very little as far as slots goes. You can't point to all the FP on the video poker that is totally irrelevant and has absolutely no impact on the odds of you hitting a $100k slot jackpot. It is about the math and the fact you played millions of coin-in on VP matters not one bit to the math which directly impacts the odds.

[kewlJ]

Oh, brother.

What was the typical return rate on your freeplay?

That is to say, after running $100 of FP through, how much did you typically cash out for?

Because if your cash-out rate was only 25%, then you made more from FP in 8 years than you have playing BJ for 20 years.

Unless, of course, your claim of running several millions of dollars of freeplay is total nonsense.

LMAO @ coach belly. I wish I had time for this. I really do. remind me to come back to this when I have more time to waste.

But for a short answer, you are leaving out part of the FP mailer game. Hundreds and thousands of dollars in FP isn't just handed to you. You have to put coin in to generate it. And that coin in is slightly -EV. So the return on FP first has to cover any -EV play and losses before there is a profit. Capeesh?

Kind of like blackjack. There are hands played at -EV. The +EV hands at really good counts have to overcome the -EV hands to generate a profit.

Another coach belly failed "gottch ya" try. But do remind me to come back to this

[kewlJ]

So you played slots very very little? Why are your comparing stuff to what Mickey says. Mickey lists out all the lifetime coin-in he churned and even you compared this to you but above you seem to have churned very little? I'm confused.

Because it is the same whether VP or slots. Millions of dollars in total Free play played through. You guys want to break off a small piece and make a big deal about a hit. What about all the time we didn't get a big hit playing through FP, maybe didn't even get close to expectation for a block of FP.

You are confused, and I suspect you really are, because you don't know much about what I actually did. And yet you have an opinion on it. And awful lot like Dawg and Singer talking about shit they have no clue about. Big surprise. Do they teach that in trolling 101?

I don't feel I am confused. I've actually run cards and churned through FP on a small team. Did the whole process from start to finish. I put a lot of thought in that time to what machines were best for various things. I have no desire to wise-up the swarms of failing carders even though I'd be exceptionally unlikely to do it again. Just out of respect to whomever. You see a lot of dumb shit and all the other operators.

Actually I posted a fanny pack with $100k that was the result of that. It had VCT written on a piece of paper too just to kinda show it was mine. No one cares but just saying. People do have pics that sorta demonstrate something.

No - you don't hit 100k jackpots on normal VP. You'd need what? $25 a spin VP and hit a royal? It is not the same.

The fact is you and your team played very little as far as slots goes. You can't point to all the FP on the video poker that is totally irrelevant and has absolutely no impact on the odds of you hitting a $100k slot jackpot. It is about the math and the fact you played millions of coin-in on VP matters not one bit to the math which directly impacts the odds.

This is great! You are actually sharing a little something real and useful. I just don't have time for it right now. But please remind me to address this next time I am on.