Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
Originally Posted by redietz View Post
As per usual, "Singer' avoids posting numbers of any kind.

My opinion? There will be a minimum of 10 million infected. The trick will be, if 20% require hospitalization, to not overwhelm the U.S. health care system in a span of a couple of months.

My opinion is probably way, way low. The head of the German equivalent of the CDC just announced an expectation that more than half of Germans will be infected.

I understand the preference to pretend it's an illusion, but that preference does nobody any favors.
Bump. On March 10 redietz predicted 10 million infected and he put the over/under on hospitalizations for those infected at 20%. And he was "worried" about our health care system being overwhelmed by that 20% in the span of the "next couple of months." Since he wrote the post on March 10 then May 10 would be the end of the "next couple of months."

The context of his post is that 10 million would be infected by May 10, that number has turned out to be about 4.5 million. And he was well off on the 20% hospitalization rate too.

But I guarantee you redietz has more routes than Greyhound Bus Lines so will have ample excuses for his very bad math. But he will probably go with a flat out denial that he was wrong.

Quick update. Indiana has done some sample antibody testing. Based on their results, released yesterday, they estimate that 3% of their population has been infected. Now there's no way of knowing if that is at all representative of the U.S. as a whole, but if it is, then the number of people in the U.S. who have been infected at this point in time is in the realm of 10-12 million. As I said, it's a big if, but I want to thank mickey for pointing out my March 10 quote. That would really be something if I ballparked the figure so accurately two months in advance. I had completely forgotten I had posted that back in early March. Pretty good job.

So thanks, mickey. I'll put that on the resume.