Important Point

[arcimede$]

We have gone over this a hundred times: expected return is different from actual return. I don't understand why you can't separate the two?

Well it appears it will take 101 before you understand. "Actual return" references past results. We are not talking about past results in this case. We are talking about future results. The game has a future ER and the player has his own personal future ER. They are different.

Let me give you another real world experience but this time from the TV news business: the expected tenure of a TV station news director (the boss of the TV news department) is a bit less than three years. This is based on statistics of all of the TV stations in the USA. Yet, Ralph Renick in Miami at WTVJ was news director there for something like 32 years. Andy Brigham was news director at WTVH in Syracuse for about 20 years. So their actual tenure was different from their expected tenure. It's the same playing video poker.

And not related at all to the current discussion.

Here's a gambling analogy: A shooter at craps is expected to roll the dice 7 times before he sevens-out. Some will have an actual "hand" that lasts two rolls, and some lucky players might roll the dice a hundred times.

Still not related. Alan, try the understand the difference between future and past and maybe you will catch on.