Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
You are twisting that story that you keep repeating.
How so?
For starters, Eliot's story shows that the casino is not going to just continue to comp someone winning to no end, which is something you and Mdawg argue they will. It the case of Eliot's story, they called in math experts and were convinced by the experts that the player would indeed start losing. Had he not started losing, they would not have let it go on much longer. The fact that they took the action shows that.

Now if you read Eliot's post on Dec 5, 2020 at 10:46 am, he states that for a player to be ahead, playing negative EV game after two years of extensive play, that would be a three (3) standard deviation event, or a 1 in 600 chance. Is that what you and MDawg are claiming? That his great adventure is just a 1 in 600 chance of dumb luck? And if that is what you are claiming then we can expect that in the near future, he starts losing and loses it all back. Because for that not to be the outcome and him continue to win, the odds go astronomically higher. So I guess we have that to look forward to.

One other thing about Eliot's story is the amount of play involved. The more a player plays a -EV game, the more it has to catch up with him. Eliot was vague on what the total amount of play was with the high roller he evaluated. A number of trips over a couple years. But I will bet those trips weren't for 6 weeks, 2 months at a time. Most gamblers a trip to Vegas is a few days. So Eliots high roller amost assuredly had much less play that MDawg claims with his 6 weeks at a time trips. Much much more play involved, making the chance of winning, playing a -Ev game, much much less likely....like up into the impossible range.