Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
It seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shopping
Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.
"A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."
How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.
Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.
I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.
When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?
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