Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey,

You have the right idea here but your EV calculation is wrong. You didn't subtract out the losing bets. Also remember you are paying the juice.

You are making two bets at 110 to win 100.

8% of the time you hit the middle and win 200. 92% of the time you win one bet and lose one bet, win 100 and lose 110 for a net
loss of 10. To calculate EV you need to include all outcomes and the probability for each one.

EV = (.08*200) + (.92* -10) = 16 - 9.2 = 6.8. You are betting 220 so the ROI is 6.8 / 220 = 3.4%.

You are using a "push chart". Not to be confused with "push/fold chart" which is a poker thing. The push chart gives the percent of games that end in a point spread push. Here we have that 3 point NFL favorites will push in 8% of their games. Can you post a link to the chart you used? The website that I used for a push chart has shut down.

Half Smoke put it up a while back. It might have come from covers.com