Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
Going to be in the 80's today and all week in Vegas and I have a busy week planned, so not going to waste time on here. But I want to say one final thing about this Half smoke play.

This is a legitimate play based on 12 years of data. And it is a narrow part of a bigger underdog data provided by Wizard for decades of NFL games, 10's of thousands of games. It was and is +EV, even though for me just barely won this year. Last year was 20-12 for the 2 weeks, which I did play online after Half Smoke first shared the play. Of course every year wasn't going to be 20-12. Wouldn't that be sweet. And it would have been +EV, even if it had narrowly lost instead of narrowly won.

I publicly stated what I was betting before a single game was played. Actually have mentioned it several times throughout the summer waiting for these first two weeks. Last sunday morning, I even commented how I may have over done it for my comfort level when I realized how much I had riding on week 1.

What I got fro our expert Red, was calling this play a trend. Even Boz said something about me chasing a -EV trend. This is/was a +EV play that Half smoke gave out to several gambling forums, with the data backing it up. Any AP that bets football that didn't jump on it, just left money on the table, even though it only turned a small profit this year. But really the only other AP, that I saw publicly jump on it, was Axelwolf and good for him. I hope he stuck with it and played the second week.

And after the first week and all the comments about trends and chasing -EV, when this +EV play turned around, Guess what? Not a single chirp. Crickets. Not a single person had a word to say. Not a single "good for you for sticking with it". Why am I not surprised?
NO, NO, NO it wasn’t an AP play. You are just wrong on that. I can find any historical “trend” and say the next game is +EV based on historical context. That doesn’t make today’s play +EV when you have a built in house edge like sports does.

I am happy you won on it but saying you had an edge is just wrong. At least you didn’t follow this ass clown. And you didn’t bet parlays so there’s that. Again, congratulations since no one else is saying it.
Thank you for that Boz. But your comments about house edge and +EV are just wrong. House edge does not necessarily make a play -EV. Take blackjack. There is a definite house edge. But card counting and other AP plays can and do overcome that house edge and make the play +EV.

In this case, yes, there is a definite house edge because of the juice. But the likelihood of lines being wrong, under and overvalued in the early weeks, can over come the house edge. And it is the data that proves that.

Take Wizards data. (forgetting your dislike of the man). Wizards data show for something like 17 years, every NFL game, that betting underdogs show a small profit. That is thousands and thousands of games. That is NOT a trend. A trend is The cowboys have won 5 of last 6 meetings.