One other thing HS. A number of years back, I had the chance to ask Don S about the RPC (level 2) that he played and all the index plays he plays. Despite being known for the Illustrious 18, Don plays over 150 index plays, many negative plays, because he is from the old play all approach days.
So, Dons answer in that discussion was "given everything he knew at the time of the question, if he was starting over that day, he would have just settled on Hi-Lo and the 18-20 index plays", rather than a level 2 RPC and 150 index plays. That always stuck with me.
So I was a little surprised when Don was involved with this Caraculo project, which almost seemed to contradict what he told me about keeping it simple. I am thinking it was almost an academic exercise. It is fun to see what the math comes up with on paper (simulations), but that really doesn't mean that is the best application for real life play. Just speculating.
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The blackjack card counting math IS the blackjack card counting math. There is nothing new going on there. It has been known for 60+ years.
In the early days of single double deck games, with a decent spread players could gain up to 2% advantage. As casinos countered that with 6 deck games and dealer hit soft 17, that number came down to 1% advantage or really even less, if you are not escaping a lot of the bad counts. My advantage is probably just tickling 1%. Of course I do some cover plays (discussed recently) which cut into that, so maybe even less than 1%. I am OK with that.
But I am just not impressed with the idea that "new counts" are going to change the math. I wasn't impressed with the guy on Norms forum (T3) when I was there that tried to claim that with his super-duper count, and all due respect to Caraculo and Don S, I am not buying it makes much difference now. You aren't going to change the math. If you want to change something, come up with ways to play that allow you to play longer and increase longevity.
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