Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[arcimede$]

First of all when you quit when you are ahead you have beaten the expected return of the game -- and that's true. No one can dispute that. If the game has an expected return of 99.2% and you quit with an actual return of 110% you beat the expected return.

And, if you lose money you might have a return of 90% and you didn't achieve the expected return. So what? Why do you continue to make these meaningless statements?

My point is take the profits when you can get them.

No one has a problem with this. However, it is meaningless to your overall results over time. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

I also think you have a chance of making more money and hitting more winners later -- otherwise there would be no point in playing again later.

So, you do believe the machines are not random. Why didn't just say so. Of course, if the machines are not random then anything is possible. Everything you are being told is based on a random deal.

I'll tell you what I think is absolutely foolish: letting the clock or the number of tier points deciding how long you play.

That's because you refuse to accept reality.

If you let the clock decide how long you play you could be forced to stop playing when you are at a low point or showing a big loss.
If you let the number of tier points decide when to quit it's the same thing -- you might have scored your 5,000 tier points on the day but you could have lost a lot of money or given back a lot from previous winners to reach 5,000 tier points.

And, you could be as high as you are going to get on that day. You continue to ignore that the machines are random and from any point in time your odds are exactly the same or, as it appears, you don't really believe the machines are random.

Doesn't it make more sense to quit when you are ahead and disregard the amount of time you played and disregard the number of tier points earned?

NO, NO, and NO. There is no difference in any of those points in times. Your odds are exactly the same. You still want to make the game non-random. You want to believe that the odds change. Sorry, but that is simply not true.

Arc tells us his sessions are based on time played. That to me is ridiculous.
Dan you told us that you play to reach certain tier point levels. So be honest: have you ever had big wins and then gave it back just to reach a set tier point level for a day's play? I think you have. But don't feel bad -- I used to do it also. But then I realized just how smart it is to take the money home and damn the tier points.

What is ridiculous is you have been informed numerous times that your opinion is wrong. Yet, you believe that all the mathematicians in the world are idiots and you are smarter. Hilarious and completely delusional.