Originally Posted by OnceDear View Post
Ultimately Alan has to PROVE it to himself. At the moment he has the sticking point that he is answering his own question to which the correct answer is 1/6
This.

No matter what kind of proof we show Alan, we'll get the same response, something like, "One die is a 2. The other is unknown. The chance of rolling a 2 on that die is 1/6. Simple. Easy. That's it. Nothing else."


I think deep down inside Alan knows the truth to be 1/11, but he's dug such a deep hole for himself, he can't admit 1/11 is the correct answer. I don't know, but I suspect he came to this / his forum because he thought the Rob Singers and others alike would undoubtedly agree with 1/6. Furthermore, I think Alan knows 1/11 to be correct, which is why he's not willing to wager $$$. But, anyone (who gambles) truly believes in 1/6, would have to have a very good reason to deny such a lucrative bet (33% edge on resolved bets, 5.55% edge on a per-roll basis). And I'm not talking about betting peanuts, either (unless you'd like to bet using peanuts).