The Sisyphean Gambler

[arcimede$]

Thanks for the setting up the simulation. Does this mean that the win goal strategy according to the math does no harm?

How many times do I have to say it makes no difference? It neither helps nor hurts.

Now, what if you tighten your loss limit. Instead of a $2500 loss, let's do a $250 loss limit and let's do a smaller 5% win which is $125. ($125 is not a bad days pay either.) But let's add another factor: a trailing win/loss stop so just in case you win more than $125 (say you hit quads coming out of the chute) you can raise your win/loss stop to $250.

You can play with it all you like but it won't change anything. A $125 win goal and $250 loss limit yields 47% sessions wins with a return of 99.09%. My program does not have the ability to change things on the fly (but it could be added).

Regarding your bell curve analogy: while the math might dictate a bell curve, there is no reason for any player to let himself be at the losing end of the bell curve. If you can beat the bell curve, you should do it. You shouldn't be the schmendrick who leaves the casino saying "well today was my day to lose, but tomorrow I'll be at the high end of the bell curve."

The problem is that darn thing called randomness. You can't force the machines to give you wins.