Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
People will share what's true. Anything that happens in public is public.

If there is a public offer from a casino why would you keep it a secret when the casino had made it public (Axel's claim about a 150% loss rebate)?

But a dealer flashing cards is not public so that can be kept a secret.
KJ summed it up fairly well.

I would like to add a few things. AP's are not just in competition with the casinos, they are also in competition with other AP's(they are competing for the casino's money)

Think of it like a drawing. Let's say you have a 20k drawing and the casinos requirement in order to earn tickets is to hit something in particular.
You as an AP have narrowed down the best things to play( Best things doesn't mean the lowest HA, manny AP's make that mistake, including "the best")

Let's say you have narrowed it down a few games that will earn tickets 100 times faster than any other game in the house at a low cost per ticket.

If there was no competition you could easily have 75% of the drawing tickets at Mabey a cost of $2500 and a few days of work (little or no ploppies are going to play what and how you are playing). Let's say another AP finds out about the drawing. He strolls in and sees what game(s) you are playing. He's on easy street now that hes seen what you are playing and how, all he has to do is find a vacant spot and start compeeting for the money. You just dropped your 12,500 in value down to half that, if he goes for as you have. If you get into a drawing battle with him your value will keep dropping as you lose more and more money to the house trying to earn tickets. Add 2 more APs to the mix and you can see how much money just a few more AP's can cost you, 12k down to 3k. I have seen cases where drawings have went from+EV to -EV after the fact.

In cases where the casino doesn't have a set limit like a drawing, they will cut off a promo/game once they realize they are probably giving out too much money. The more AP's playing it, the faster they give out money, the sooner it ends. If an AP had it all to himself he would get all that money for himself.

I have seen it time and time again, a +EV situation lasts for a long time and suddenly a bunch of APs start showing up and it ends soon after.

There are many situations where one AP couldn't possibly get all the money himself, so sharing the information with a few others will not cost him anything. AP's usually have a good sence what they should and shouldn't share with others outside their group.