Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
Alan, have you ever asked Singer why he pockets wins over 40 credits? For example, look at the 9/5 TBPP example. A win of 45 credits for a FH would allow 9 more hands to be played. That provides (9/420) a 2% chance of hitting a quad. That is 8 times more often than his special play above. If a strategy is supposed to generate wins and go home then pocketing these wins is 180° opposite of what you should do. In fact, this one play alone likely reduces the chances of going home a winner by more than ALL the special plays combined help to produce a winner.

This is trivial math. Anyone who claims to have done a "risk analysis" is blowing wind up your ... you know what.
This is actually worse than I mentioned here. In addition to the 9 hands lost directly by pocketing the FH, additional hands are lost by the winners generated while playing the original 9 hands.

Assuming the 77% return for below quad payouts that means 3.85 credits are generated by each hand or almost 35 credits on the first iteration, then those 35 credits yield 27 credits ... 21 ... 16 ... 11 ... 8 ... 5 ... 3. Overall it comes out to over 25 additional hands. So, replacing 9 with 25 yields (25/420) a 6% added quad opportunity which is over 20 times the effect of the special play.