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  1. #11
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    Ok, see column 4, EV for each session. When you add them up, you get the accumulated EV (column 5). Since these results start on January 1 for the first 15 days of January, which is the period we were talking about, it was nice and easy. EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15.

    Now actual results flip flop all over the place, from a high of + $9212.50 on 1/04/18 to a low of - $2087.50 on 1/11/18. That is variance, and a completely normal range, known as standard deviation.

    So while actual results bounce around up and down (like the stock market), EV is a steady climb of expectation and given enough trials (longterm), accumulated EV and actual results will come together. Just as mine did by 1/15/18. Now sometimes this bouncing around, gets more extreme and actual results can be further above or below expectation, and may take longer to get back in line, sometimes months instead of weeks, like in this case. BUT they always come back in line. ALWAYS.

    So accumulated EV is a way to measure where you really are, expectation wise. Because results will either catch up to expectation or come back to expectation. In this 15 day period, consisting of only 11 playing days, results both came back to expectation when they were running well above and came up to expectation when they were running behind, so this is a good example.

    It's expectation, or accumulated EV that is the real measure of where you are.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 06-18-2018 at 02:43 PM.

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