Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
As far as AP's....some of them are lifetime winners, but it isn't because of some grind-it-out "with an edge" play. It's because they get lucky, and it's no more or no less than that.
No, that's complete bullshit.
Let's say you have a scenario in which you have a casino that will give you a total of $1,500 free play over a few months and all you have to do is play $5,000 coin-in on the first day of having a Player's Club card. Playing a Video Poker game on a low enough denomination, you essentially can't lose if you have even a minimal idea of how to play it correctly. The only potential problem is if the card ends up screwed for some reason, but aside from that, there's just virtually no way to lose money overall on an individual card.
There are other examples I could come up with. On other plays, it's just because the AP hits what one would consider the, "Long Run," (which I consider the point that at least 999,999/1,000,000 players would win) much more quickly due to the size of the advantage. It's the same thing with recreational players, the bigger the house edge against them (absent huge variance-related factors or huge top prizes) the faster you reach the point that no player over a given sample could conceivably win.
Being ahead on an individual type of play (or overall) may come down to Variance if the AP is not playing with a big enough edge or is overplaying bankroll (too much variance). However, there are many examples of plays in which an AP could not lose given even a fairly small sample of attempts.
Hell, there are literally individual plays such that an AP can't possibly lose. Those are rare, of course, and I don't think an AP would make much doing those exclusively. I'm talking about slot vulturing conditions such that it is impossible to lose the spin(s) on this last part.
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