Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
Quick hypothetical question for you AP pros.

Let’s say you guys put me on a play that mathematically is worth $100.00 per hour. I play exactly as required for max advantage. Yet, for the first day of play, I play for 10 hours and end up losing $100.00 dollars per hour for a total loss of 1K. I go back the following day and unfortunately the same results happen. These same results sadly repeat for the whole week. I’m now down 7K.

The following week I only lose 4K under the same conditions. I’m now down 11K. The following week I lose another 6K. I’m now down after 3 weeks and 210 hours of play a total of 17K. All my free play went down the drain the same way, and I ate all the free comped food and still had to pay out of my pocket for most of it. Amazingly everyone around me are hitting all kinds of good shit, royals, etc.

How long should I expect to grind it out on the same play to recover the 17K I lost in cash along with the 21K I should have won, plus the additional $100.00 dollars per hour I should be winning to recover these losses to become mathematically sound again? Do I now have 38K plus expenses in the accumulated EV bank?

Then for an added hypothetical situation I eventually after months of endless 10-hour days on this play eventually end up losing my whole 100K bankroll. Should I get a loan knowing eventually I have to recover my banked accumulated EV along with all the profits the math said I must have?
Personally, I would not play something that had that scenario in the range of possible outcomes. This is the same reason why you don't see AP teams targeting progressives that are 1 in millions shots even though they are +EV.