Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
I can't answer for Rob, but you asked me about craps, and I can respond:

I am a green chip player, so I bet the passline with $25 and FULL odds. At Caesars, that's 3x 4x 5x odds. These have the lowest house advantage -- but not necessarily the best chance to win. And there is a difference. With full odds on the 4 or ten you have the lowest house advantage, but the chance of winning is slimmer than if the "point" is the six or eight.

You ask about the horn and other high house-edge bets. No, not my style. I do make a $5 horn-high-ace-deuce bet on the come-out roll to "insure" my $25 pass line bet in case there is a craps rolled. And I sometimes will bet $5 on the horn high-yo on the "second roll" out of a craps superstition about the "second roll yo," but I am a conservative bettor who bets the numbers, avoids the fields, the hardways, and the "middle bets." And when I press, I press the numbers from the inside moving out.

I do make the firebet when available -- because that is, at most casinos, the only "jackpot bonus" bet available for craps. Otherwise in craps you have to bet big to win big. It is much different from VP where a $5 bet can win a $4,000 royal.
Thanks Alan for your response.

But given what Rob is advocating...moving up in stakes to try for the bigger win to wipe out previous losses, why wouldn't you just start betting big on the 30 to 1 payoff for 12 or 2? Sure it's not the 800 to 1 payoff a $5 bet in VP pays you, but it comes in a lot more frequently. I think you know that spreading $200 over the hardways and the horn bet on every roll would bust you fairly quickly because the house edge on those bets is exhorbitant. Continually placing those bets is a losing proposition and it would grind you down eventually. Wouldn't this same logic apply to less than optimal plays in VP? You could hit the cards you need, but you would eventually be ground down.

Why doesn't someone run a million hand simulation (using the same hand each time) on one of Rob's special plays versus a the mathematically correct hold? Wouldn't the final totals of Rob's play versus the correct play resolve this once and for all?