Blackjack variance by the numbers

[UCFX]

Since I have also played and coached basketball, I just want to say that if the Moses basketball quote is correct, he's just flat out wrong. He has it backwards for a number of reasons.

Let's go through it:

Finally, someone with some intelligence and not more KJ rants and Keystone tough guy shit. Yes let's do.

1) Blackjack is not basketball. Specifically, counting cards in blackjack does not relate to basketball in general because "spreading" in blackjack has no real basketball equivalent. There are free throws, two-point shots, and three-point shots in basketball. Nothing in basketball enables three-point shots to increase the likelihood of being made in the manner that a blackjack count makes winning the next hand more likely..

Of course, it isn't. Moses was using it as a frame of reference. Because you guys are strictly about books and math. Moses is talking about a strategy before the 3-point shot and shot clock was introduced into the game. And the high school level of play because it's far different from college. It's still a game and there is a winner and a loser. The difference the player loses by forfeit in blackjack. The team wins in basketball by forfeit.

2) Reducing the number of possessions in basketball does not reduce variance if by variance you mean the outcome of the single event (the "game in basketball or "session" in blackjack) as compared to 100 such events or a "game" that continues in perpetuity (the "long term"). The more possessions in a game between teams of unequal ability, the more likely that the superior team will win. Consider the superior team the one with the "edge.".

Moses isn't talking stall ball here. It is a motion offense. For every action there is a reaction. The Center could end up at the top of the key. Suppose the point guard passes to the wing on his right and then runs off a pick to the right of the Center at the free throw line. The indicate the Center sets a pick backside to the wing man on the opposite side. Point goes to corner. Corner goes to wing. Opposite wing either gets a layup or wing passes to corner on his side. The opposite wing sets a pick and roll in corner and wing move to the point at the top of the key. THAT is just a bring example. But you get the idea of 5 men constantly in motion. This serves two purposes. 1.) it gets the best shot possible. 2.) it wears down the defense from fighting around pick and switching men. Hence, pressure on the defense long enough and they become lax and too impatient of offense.

IF the point guard runs off the pick to the left? It changes the entire dynamic off the motion offense. IF PG passes to the Center? Wing pick and rolls off ball into corner. IF that doesn't work. PG goes off Center pick and into corner if layup doesn't work. Point is you turn it and turn it and turn until YOU get the shot YOU want NOT what the defense gives. BIG difference in that.

3) This was why, in part, the shot clock was introduced to college basketball. It was a way to facilitate the brand names winning more games and forcing the inferior teams to play high-possession games.

I agree. It was for the fans. Otherwise, teams with dominate big men were dominating the game. Everyone sees the 3 pointer and yes that definitely add to the momentum swings of a game. But without it, to keys to beating superior talented teams came from defense. Not offense. You step down and take a charge. Two points taken away and your team regains possession and puts the offense more talented team back on defense. Do that 5 times in a game and the gap closes considerably. Dive on the hardwoods for a loose ball going out of bounds. That fuckin smarts. But you've avoided a turnover. Do that 5 times in a game and the gap closes.

Point is, if the superior team is constantly playing defense they can't be scoring on offense.

4) The discussion about passing up a 20-foot jumper at seven minutes for a layup at six minutes is just silly. .

Silly? No one uses the would silly in basketball. I tell you what. Let's go to the park and you shoot 20 footers and I'll shoot layups and we'll see who makes a higher percentage. IF you make 50%, you're a very good shooter. I guarantee you I will make 90% or more. EASY. Now, running around playing defense, take a charge or two, dive for a loose ball. The 20 foot jumper percentage will drop but the layup percentage will not.

If a team or coach knew a layup was coming at six minutes, nobody would ever take the jumper, as the two words (layup/jumper) define different percentage shots. The problem is that no layup is ever guaranteed to present itself, obviously, no matter how many times you pass up jumpers. And there's no guarantee you won't turn the ball over..

Clearly, you don't understand the motion offense. The 5 players are equally skilled or close to it. THAT comes from a constructive practice. Every 30 seconds is planned for two hours everyday.

While I am a fan of "pass the ball four times" from Hoosiers, that's a way of playing, not a guarantee that a team will be able to do it...

I agree. However, two guards don't just come down and throw the ball around 4 times and shoot. There is a purpose, picks, backside screens, pick and rolls etc, etc.

I played on a team (pre-shot clock) that held the ball 11 minutes one game because we were in foul trouble. It took us three possessions, however, as it's a difficult thing to hold the ball when the other team knows you're trying to hold the ball.

That is stall ball which is primarily why rules were changed. WC implemented to control the tempo of the game. Make a team come out of their zone defense so we could go into our motion offense...and wear their asses out.

5) The idea that reducing number of possessions in a game reduces variance in the game outcome is just flat-out incorrect. It's completely ass backwards..

Nope. Moses was 20-2 his Senior year with a far less talented team than a far more talented teams was 10-10 my sophomore year. Btw, both the JV and Varsity coach are in the HS Hall of fame and the player who followed Moses is still a DI coach. And yes, I saw him play. I still give him shit over the loss at the buzzer in the State semi's. 61-60. Damn Moses.

As Moses said, college is different because the talent level rises to scholarship athletes.

Now, getting back to blackjack. Moses already describe many moves at Zen Zone. But here is one more. 26 cards in. Count is 59% high remaining and 41% low. You have a decision to make and THAT decision depends on knowing the dealer tendencies. If they are going to shuffle after that hand, then play two hands. IF they are going to give that 7th round, then play one hand and two on the next. IF high cards come out? Great, that is what you wanted. But if low cards come out on round 6, then you are in an even stronger percentage of high cards to low cards remaining in round 7. Hence, layups vs 20 foot jumpers.

My point is for every action there is a reaction and a purpose. I'm taking what their giving me and they don't even know it.