I've never quoted a 25% death rate, so let me be clear on that. Nothing I've said even suggests that.
If you mean death rate for all those infected, no, it should not be close to that when the testing is finally substantial. If you mean death rate for those hospitalized, I have no idea. For those who are intubated, my understanding is that it's about 50/50.
Also, this is not completely about survival. A good chunk of people who get this are going to have permanent lung damage, like having tuberculosis. So quality of life will be reduced for those who survive. That hasn't even been discussed much publicly because then, with 30% minimum having the virus, you're talking about tens of millions with reduced quality of life. Those are the facts. That's the reality. if you prefer to believe something else, be my guest.
I have, at each step of this, been correct about virtually everything. And that did not take any super powers. It took a little reading and listening to actual experts and understanding that science and the military have been running models for this for decades.
I'm a little stunned that people couldn't follow the bread crumbs and arrive at accurate conclusions. All you had to do was follow the proper news sources and actual bona fide experts. No trick to it.
As I say in "The Man Who Wouldn't Cry Wolf," my one rule of thumb in gambling is, "Don't believe what you prefer to believe."
For those who think I'm being biased in some way, let me state clearly that, on a 1 to 10 scale, I'd give the CDC a Zero, Trump a 1; and rest of the federal bureaucracy a 2 on this. It's a complete embarrassment that the United States is this disorganized and is going to suffer like this in these numbers. It should not have happened. This is clearly not the America of my Lunar Module, science-respecting youth. It's a bunch of maroons, top to bottom.
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