These stats suggest a mortality rate of 1% or less.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
How do you figure that Mickey?
Among resolved cases, 20% have died. And sadly that number continues to tick upward.
You can not use total cases. You must use resolved cases, because the deaths occur several weeks, even as long as a month after infection. I mean people that got infected today, or yesterday or 2 days ago are included in the total cases, but whether or not they die can not possible be determined for another few weeks.
Here's another way of looking at it: Suppose some how, with a magic swipe of the wand, there were no more cases after today. So the number of cases "froze" right there. Deaths would still occur for several more weeks from the current cases. It takes several weeks to a month for deaths to catch up.
here is yet a third way. Since it takes several weeks for deaths to catch up you could compare the death total of today against the case total of several weeks ago. That would be an approximation, but much closer to the actual death rate.
The only way the death rate is at 1% or less, is if millions and millions of people have had the virus and resolved on their own without being counted. And this is possible. It is what we are all hoping for. But we need testing to know for sure. Not the testing to see who has the virus, but the antibody test to see who has had it and resolved. And they don't have to test every person, just a significant sample size to know that yeah, for every confirmed case, there have been 10 cases that were not confirmed that people recovered on their own. Boy wouldn't that be a great thing! But we need testing to know for sure.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
If you have a Fever and Cough or Sore Throat... STAY HOME!!
Mickey, I think you are interpreting the numbers incorrectly. The problem continues to be that it takes weeks for the cases to resolve.
So each and every day there is a new high in number of new cases. So that means that number you are looking at 95% mild cases contains all of the new cases from the past couple days, even the past week. Of course those newer cases are now "mild". People don't get sick for up to several weeks. So if we looked at just these cases that are listed today, as active cases, 797,398 and checked back next week, on just those cases, the criticals and deaths would both go up from that pool of cases. And the week after that the deaths and criticals would have gone up even more.
The problem is by next week or the week after there will be a whole new slew of active cases, again with the majority, listed as mild, because there hasn't yet been sufficient time for them to progress to critical and/or death. It is sort of a ponzi scheme. Again, the problem is that it takes so long, weeks even a month for the cases to resolve. Only then can you determine what percent are critical and what percent die.
I like this video better. Maybe a money making opportunity for someone.
here would be yet another way to figure the real death rate. Go back and look at the first 1000 cases who tested positive in the U.S. It has probably been a couple weeks now. So when every one of those cases has fully resolved, meaning every one of them has either recovered or died, do you really think only 10 (1%) will have died? No. The number is going to be much higher.
Most places in US, and likely other countries, those confirmed cases are almost all ones with more severe symptoms. If you have symptoms but aren’t having breathing troubles you’re advised to just self quarantine, manage symptoms at home. Obviously this creates a biased death rate statistic, all we’re really looking at are moderate to severe cases or rich connected people. But Kewlj won’t listen to any of that and insists that no one can use any inferential statistical reasoning based on that, can only use biased confirmed case count and resolved cases. Why? Idk, maybe Kewlj just being ass hoe.
You can pretty easily just assume the 5% currently critical cases are going to die, a few won’t but a few non critical will turn that or die anyway and that there’s at least 4x as many non confirmed cases that have shown symptoms but are advised to not be tested based on what we’re being told on how many severe vs non severe cases there are, leads you to a pretty easy rough 1% fatality assumption.
Last edited by mcap; 04-03-2020 at 02:50 PM.
Why the need to call names, mcap? why is it that on this site there can be no reasonable discussion without name calling?
Again, I hope like hell that there is a large pool of people that have already contracted the virus, had mild symptoms and recovered. And that would make the death rate 1% or even less. But there is yet no proof of that. That means it is purely an assumption at this point. Assume....you know how that works?
Why the names? Cuz it’s Dan’s forum, management style fosters and encourages it. Gotta go somewhere else or make our own forum if we want it to be civil:
Yeah I guess assumption make ass hoe out of both you and me. You’re calculating style make assumption too that there are zero undiagnosed cases.
Last edited by mcap; 04-03-2020 at 03:04 PM.
Anyone who says that Hitlers Recipe is MendleBread has no right to ask others why they are name calling.
If your gonna shove it in peoples asses you have to be able to take it up the ass.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
I just seen a film bite from January where Fauci is saying coronavirus was not a threat to the U.S. If Trump was getting his advice from Fauci then it was faulty advice. And what is Fauci saying today? He's saying the country should stay in quarantine until there are no more infections and no more deaths.
Fauci is just a doctor and thats all he has to think about. Trump has to think about a lot more than the virus. He has to also think about the economy and constitutional rights.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Real death rate? Glad you Asked!
https://www.foxnews.com/health/half-...toms-data-show
Read along to the results of the cruise liner where EVERYONE got tested! Then analysts in the U.K. came up with a .66% mortality rate.
Liberal prayer:
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
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