I would watch using the phrase "the model," kewlJ. There is no one model. The model that is being pushed currently uses the neat trick of predicting "just" 60k deaths with an August 4th deadline, after which presumably the virus decides to retire before its 401ks de-value too much. None of the current models predict an "entire pandemic death toll" of 60k. The 1918 outbreak numbers are tallied from the better part of three years.

The big question is penetration. The greater the penetration, which is currently unknown due to lack of testing, the less the future danger and the less likely of second and third waves and major outbreaks. The less the penetration, the more dangerous it will be to re-open anything.

Finally, the "just 60K deaths" model also predicts some early peaks for states that it is increasingly unlikely will have those early peaks. For example, the models actually being used by health care companies in Tennessee predict a peak four to five weeks after the 60K model.

You see what's happening here, right? You get underestimations of everything until something had to be done. Then the president makes public the worst-case scenario models so as to play the hero who prevented the worst-case models. Then when the death rate comes down due to social distancing and business/school closures, the administration push is that there's been massive penetration and everything is safe, so let's open things back up. Only problem -- there hasn't been enough testing to establish any degree of penetration whatsoever.

The bottom line is the administration shut things down late, pushes to open them early, and has been flying blind the entire way, including now. President Trump, in his last presser, talked about COVID-19 as if it were a bacteria vulnerable to antibiotics. I have no idea what he was talking about. It was frightening. That is flying blind to the nth degree.