18 Hour Intermittent Fasting

[tableplay]

However, something happens the more hands that you play where the numbers start to break right or break even or get closer to the payback percentage you are playing. Yes that's exactly the case
Does that mean you could run at a return of 104% for 20 years while another guy runs at 96% return for the same 20 years? No, it should converge to whatever the payback is assuming perfect discard strategy
Yes I get it that, that could happen in theory but something changes in real world practice as we get out of the classroom.
I remember a guy telling me that the chances of me running 7 cycles behind a royal will have a 35% chance of occurring in 10 years of play.
Perhaps it wasn't 10 years but it was something along those lines. Because the royal is a rare event (1/40000 as we know), 35% is certainly plausible - recall that the variance of the royal in particular is much higher than the variance of the whole game (since the whole game contains the common hands and not just the premium hands)
The same held true for me being 7 cycles ahead of the royal cycle.
I seen a guy break down poker odds.
He was showing how you could, in theory, run bad indefinitely while another guy plays the exact same strategy and is indefinitely ahead of the curve. As stated just above, you certainly run this way for the royals, but for the game as a whole, not likely (in terms of number of royals)
So one guy would be up 275k over a certain amount of time while the other guy would be down 275k.
I get it.
That's extreme and polar opposites but it doesn't seem to occur in real world practice for me.
The numbers always seem to break right for me after 100 thousand coin in on Video Poker.
I don't track hands made against total number of hands played but I do track coin in and coin out or basically payback percentage.
If I am on something that I expect 101% return that is damn near what I see after 100,000 coin in and after a million coin in, it is damn near perfect to the number. Yes. I would expect to see the same thing (since we play our discarding properly)
Progressive Reel Plays seem to run a bit more wild or inconsistent compared to Video Poker I will admit.
It seems the variance is completely off the charts when I am playing some Reel Play compared to Video Poker which has far, far less Variance.
We are talking something like 600 or more Variance compared to 28. Totally agree (triple 7s in slots is probably way more rare than 1 in 40000)

I'm sorry I am rambling on and on about this topic and I'm sure it is something we have heard over and over for years and years.
If we are playing 9/6 JoB and we know the 4 of a kind should occur 1 out of 423.27 hands we know that the odds on every single new hand are 423.27 to 1 for that to occur.

I can't remember the exact numbers, and a bit too lazy to look it up but this should occur around 33% of the time. Yes. I am showing the calculation of this below (the probability of getting one royal in 24000 for a game with 1/40000 chance of a royal). Please not that it does not matter how many royals you have gotten prior to this. It is always about 1/3 to get one royal in 24000 hands (if 1/40000 for a royal on one deal/draw)
This means that you could expect to hit 2 Royals in 24 hours 1 out of 3 times you were in your bases loaded situation. As shown in the calculation below, the basis don't have to be loaded - you just have to play 24000 hands to have this 1 out of 3 chance.
I basically ran perfect to that number for 30 days of play.

I ended up with 10 royals and 3 bonus Royals.

Hi Monet, I have put my comments of our VP discussion in red above. Below is the calculation for the Skyline play, which I did in Excel. If you want me to do and show the calculations for anything else, let me know please. We pretty much agree on most fronts (see above).


P.S. it really doesn't matter where we have our VP discussions - we could even continue it in the Monopoly Game Piece thread if you want.