Baccarat and Blackjack Card Counting

[JSTAT]

Heading out for a while, so I want to bump this back to JSTAT. Hoping you will confirm or correct so we can get into a discussion about EV for your trips and play. I'll give you a hint as to where I am going with this. Pre-covid, I accumulated 6-7 thousand dollars per month EV, playing green to mid black stakes in Las Vegas. I don't think you were playing higher stakes that that and I don't even think a player can play green to black for long in Reno on a regular basis, so I guess my question is how did you accumulate roughly 3k EV per trip that would be necessary to win $1000-$5000 per trip for 10 years?

Ok well you didn't exactly provide a hard, solid number for results that I was looking for, so I am going to try to dig a little for it. So prior to you retiring from the USPS in 2009, you played blackjack 4 times a year, making $1000-$5000 per trip. I am going to split it right down the middle. You averaged $3000 win per trip or $12,000 win a year for 10 years? Is that right? I mean blackjack is about long-term results, and that is what I am trying to establish. Did you make over 100k total in those 10 years?? 12k a year for 10 years =$120,000? That would be a good solid supplemental income from which to base your claims. I will wait for a confirmation before I go any further.

Also would like confirmation about your baccarat play. You started playing in 2014, after you were already retired. What quantity of play are we talking? still several trips a year, or more since you are retired?

I am sure you and others can see where I am going with this. I am trying to establish sample size of amount of play for your claims.

I'll be honest. What it feels like to me is claims based on a small sample size, similar to the claims that Tthree (who I am sure you and other blackjack guys know of) back on Norm's forum 5-6 years ago. The claims were quite fantastic and turns out based on a small and insignificant sample size. As time went on and he got to a bigger sample size, even he admitted the results came back down to reality, more in line with what the math said it would be. The math never lies....LONGTERM. So I just want to be sure that a small sample size is not what we are dealing with here.

And no offense, but you ought to be able to give a hard, solid number of results, rather than I made $1000-$5000 per trip. That is too vague. reminds me of my grandfather when I would ask how he did betting horses over his life. His answer would be "about even", when of course he wasn't. Somebody taking their gambling seriously as you have done with all your videos and time put in, ought to have a very definitive number to give as far as results.

My goal at single deck blackjack in the 90's was to play up to 13 hours at one table. Most of the pit games were $5 minimums (some one dollar). SD games in the Reno and Lake Tahoe area everywhere!. Sit at a $5 table and start after a shuffle. By ordering a few beers and smoking cigarettes, most ploppies cleared the table. Playing heads-up was the goal and that's when the fireworks began. By betting $25 at the top, it allowed me to drop down to a $5 bet when the blackjack frequency was low. When the count and side count was up, it was $50. On the third and forth hand, the bet is $100 when the BJ rate was above the 4.83% rate. Then the bet is dropped down to the $5 wager till the shuffle. I won until I had enough beer. How can a counter who drinks win and play mistake free? I did and got away with a 1-20 spread while fooling surveillance and the pit. Every casino I hit I won good money. You see KJ, knowing surveillance was using Hi-Lo to determine a threat, I bet the minimum at 50% and beyond before the shuffle fooled them.

A winning outcome is certain when we are getting the same amount of blackjacks as the dealer when the blackjack frequency is high. Matching blackjacks is a sure winner since we win 50% more. It adds up to big paydays. The longer you play, the more you win. Casinos were candy stores back then. Thanks for taking me back into the time machine KJ