Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
The casinos in question, several higher end properties on the strip in Las Vegas, are not just going to let a player win everyday for months at a time, for multiple long trips several times a year over many years, like this and then comp him high end on top of it. That just is NOT the way Las Vegas casinos, I assume any casino, but in particular high end las vegas casinos work. They are going to suspect everything from hole-carding, to cheating, maybe some form of dealer collusion, to whatever, and then they are going to figure it out.
You are assuming that the casinos haven't scrutinized MDawg's play, and came to the same conclusion as the experts in the True Story below..


Originally Posted by Eliot Jacobson
True Story:

A few years back I was asked to investigate a baccarat player who had won tens of millions of dollars from a casino as a consistent winner over a period close to 3 years. He was a high-roller, with a maximum bet on baccarat of about $125,000. Those in management who were savvy about risk understood that this person was most likely just lucky, but few in upper management believed them. So they called in the experts.

I was among a small handful of experts who were hired to scrutinize how this person played and give a risk assessment. The casino kept careful records of each session of play. I also looked at video footage, inspected the cards, looked at the room where it happened, talked to dealers and did everything else you can imagine someone who is investigating a large financial loss might do. Without fail, every single person who looked at this player came to the same conclusion that I did -- he was lucky. We got various estimates of his luck, he was somewhere between 2.5 and 3.0 standard deviations above expectation for the period of his play.

Then I retired.

Then, about three months back I heard again from the casino, purely a friendly call. Guess what? The player had lost it all back, and a lot more. Bravo to the casino for not backing off this player, and instead, listening to the experts and realizing that every wager the player made was a loser, it was just a matter of time.
No I am not assuming that. I have absolutely considered that. But there are several major differencs.

First, in Eliot's story there is no mention of amount of play other than over 3 years period. That could be anything from one weekend a year every year to something significantly more. At that level of play it is doubtful it is too frequenly. I would guess 3-4 trips a year, but only a guess. But we do know Mdawgs volume of play, He plays every day for 50, 60 days in a row. His current trip is well over 2 month. So Mdawgs volume of play that he has posted over over the past few years, dwarfs the volume of play in the kind of story Eliot is referencing. At Mdawgs volume of play, just getting lucky for this long, isn't a possiblibly. AND they are going to find out what is going on.

The other difference, is we now know the player in Eliot's story wasn't playing with an advantage. So there was nothing to discover. In recent weeks Mdawgs story has been all over the place, with several things said, implying he is playing with an advantage. And if he is they will figure it out! They couldn't figure out the guy in Eliot's story because he wasn't playing with an advantage....nothing to figure out.