Setting Win Limitations

[Rob.Singer]

Alan, I know this won't help your quest to break your 120,000+ hand dry spell, but it'll give you hope. Here at our first stop at an RV park in Pahrump--where we're going to learn the RV ropes from friends and figure out all the incredible sophisticated gadgets in this beast--my wife sent me out to get a pizza a few nights ago. (Of course, there's a couple of local casinos here but I haven't been in them as yet because of all the work involved in learning how to set up & break camp). I went to a place called Wulfy's for the pizza, ordered it, then sat at a table to watch a baseball game while waiting.

The bar has maybe 30 vp machines but there were just 2 players. When the gal came out with my pizza I went up to the bar to pay her the 15 bucks but all I had was hundreds. So I told her to watch this: I put a hundred into a machine and said if I get down to $80 I'll give her a twenty, which meant a $5 tip. If I got it up to $125, I'd give her a $25 tip.

The game chosen was 50c 6/5 BP on a 25c/50c/$1 machine. I guess that's typical for these places. Two hands in I was dealt AhKhQhJh10d. She was really into this now and told me to hold the straight. After I giggled and explained the hand to her, the ol' fifth card flip-over popped up again and I had a $2k royal.

You know I don't ever tip handpays, and this one not only took 1-1/2 hours (because they had to send out to the owner for the cash) but they couldn't figure how to write up the W2G properly and I had to help. But I looked at this as a food stop. She even took my pizza back and had a new one cooked up when the cash arrived. The whole thing was because they weren't busy, I made a game out of paying for the pizza along with a tip, and the waitress told me she never really paid attention to the machines because she couldn't afford to gamble. I gave her $200.

I just glanced at some of the posts here about addiction and problem gambling and I had to snicker a bit. Watching grown men scramble around trying to avoid admitting they have a problem is par for the course in vp. How much brainpower does it take to know that if you play every day or every week for hours, then you're not only a video poker junkie--you're addicted to the game. The undeniable truth is the undeniable truth. I can't get why people are so afraid to just say it. I never had a problem telling the world about my problem in my book. But instead, here we have regular players putting all kinds of spin on it just to keep from utterring what must bear fearful words. Our own arci even made the mistake of moving to LV for 6-month stints just so he and the missus could be closer to the machines and get to sit at them every day, then took the beatdown after it didn't work out and scadaddled back up to the safety of Minnesota - where a quasi-control of the problem was in place. And it looks like Frank hates gambling but has to do it.

This entire thread could be part of a book on the multiple identities of denial. It's not that hard guys. How many of you can take a vacation to Hawaii and enjoy it, without employing denial-laced/feel-good statements like "Hawaii isn't my cup of tea" or "I don't like flying"? Face it--you can't stand the thought of a week or more of not being able to play, even though you can get your sort of virtual fix as a gambling forum addict. Every day I thank my lucky stars I was able to break the AP gambling curse years ago, and of course the rewards of that decision are being showered upon my wife & I today. But it all started with the ability to be honest with myself about my addiction to the game, and not constantly trying to hide behind a plethora of bad excuses and just poor rationale.

[arcimede$]

Typical Singer nonsense filled with lies and projections.

Biggest lie: "arci ... took the beatdown after it didn't work out" ... During the 5 years I wintered in Vegas my wife and I cleared over 6 figures from our gambling. Of course, some of that was from MN casinos in the summer. Most of that was playing at the quarter level.

The biggest problem Singer has is admitting he failed at AP where many others have succeeded. His hate filled posts reek of envy and that is why you constantly see him project his own gambling problems and failures on others.

[Lucky(St)Louis]

I'll be signing off this thread and may be away for some time. I have some personal issues which have come up. Specifically medical issues in my adopted family, which require leaving town.

Be well everyone.

Frank, I wish you and your family well.

[Rob.Singer]

Typical Singer nonsense filled with lies and projections.

Biggest lie: "arci ... took the beatdown after it didn't work out" ... During the 5 years I wintered in Vegas my wife and I cleared over 6 figures from our gambling. Of course, some of that was from MN casinos in the summer. Most of that was playing at the quarter level.

The biggest problem Singer has is admitting he failed at AP where many others have succeeded. His hate filled posts reek of envy and that is why you constantly see him project his own gambling problems and failures on others.

Even when lying you show how your nerves affect you and you can't do it right. 6 figures playing quarters....kinda makes what Dancer does irrelevant. I mean, why bother with the $25 machines when arci can show him the ropes on quarters. And your returns show a zeroing out of wins each year with losses. Project that one.

What's the ONLY reason vp junkies attempt a move to LV? Well gee wiz....I T-H-I-N-K I might get it right if I say it's because of an addiction to the machines. But I know--if you were to admit that obvious fact, then you're whole virtual world of video poker on the forums and fabrications of your play just might be the last nail in the coffin....so to speak. And I'll bet the farm that you & the missus are just a tad bit sorry for it all these days. Or if I'm wrong, please bring her to visit us in Oregon next summer and I'll treat you both to a week in a hotel and a fabulous meal each night. What great life---huh? My god, opportunities just ABOUND for healthy, happy families in retirement!

Let's take a good look at just what happens to AP's who have all made the mistake of thinking they could win win win from the casinos just by moving closer to the machines....then find themselves in a pool of denial afterwards:

1. Yuri (Russina last name), former top rated math professor at UNLV and friend of the Huntington Press crowd. He twice was repremanded by UNLV admin for bringing up his sure-thing AP system in vp during class. But the preaching did not match the practice. Less than 6 months after his classroom assertions, he was fired by UNLV for not showing up at his classes and instead, was followed by campus security and found to be sitting at the "+EV" machines hours upon hours every day--supposedly trying his best to prove his very poorly thought-out AP ramblings....To add to his education and mounting humiliation, he had to move his now penniless family back to Russia to sponge off other family, and Jean Scott publicly solicited donations for this misled genius.

2. Bob Dancer, current big name guru in AP video poker. Claiming to have come to LV with a mere $6000 and having since built a decent life in the suburbs, he also claims to be a winner at AP vp. Yet his collars don't match his cuffs, if you know what I mean. Here's a guy still employed in various circles at a time when not only most people his age are retired period--but as any professional gambler will tell you, if you're successful at your trade then you will never NEED to have an outside income and all the hassles that come with it. Yet this guy rakes in money from any source possible and has since moving to town. It's plainly obvious he needs the money to keep up his higher limit vp play....which in turns keeps up the guise that his vp play generates his living expenses. Oh, and did anyone mention that while he continually writes about winning just about everywhere, he just never seems to get banned due to casinos not being able to make a profit off of him. The pieces all fit into the very simple puzzle, only AP's in need of an idol--as aging an idol as he may be--just don't want it to be that way.

3. Skip Hughes. Now here's a sad story. Eager to jump onto the commercialized AP vp bandwagon in the early 2000's, this former attorney gave it all up once bitten by the video poker bug and moved to LV to do what our friend Dick did--to be closer to the machines so he could play every day. But as his losses mounted up he became involved in the exact same activities as all the other AP vp gurus: He started selling strategy, strategy cards, newsletters....just about anything gambling related to keep gambling money in his pockets. But at the end of the day, he ended up just like almost all of the other wide-eyed, misled AP's who's thinking was clouded by the compulsion to play vp: broke, and forced to mve out of state to get away from the machines. His final humiliation was forever cemented by tragically dying too young, then having Jean Scott solicit donations for the unnecessarily busted life left behind. I actually tried to help him when he came to me to understand my play strategy, finally admitting to me that he just could never beat the game as he gave the perception of doing. Just a sad story.

4. Dan Paymar: Actually a pretty decent old chap, but one who annoys the vp world by reprinting the same old book over & over again just for profit. Yet here's another who headed for the safety of the New Mexico hills once he discovered what Lenny Fromme told my book publisher: that it was impossible to beat the vp machines with AP play. But Dan's still selling the system--he isn't the least bit taken back by AP-failure. In fact, every forum he posts on he includes his shameless advertising for his products. Gee,and all he had to do was ask me for help and he'd still be living the life he expected to in LV....

So arci, "many others" have succeeded? In what wet dream, and on what planet?

[arcimede$]

As I said before, all you will get from Singer is lies and projections. This latest tome is just more proof. Here's one example to make it obvious.

Two people playing 5 years earning 6 figures could be as little as $10K/year per person. Hardly anything special. I guess Singer is as bad at math as he is at VP. In addition, we always limited ourselves to no more than 3-4 hours a day for 4-5 days a week.

The real truth is Singer cannot accept that other people can control their play ... unlike his own experiences.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arcimide$ I am always intrigued by finding out people can win money and have a net profit playing VP. I am not that fortunate. Heck, I haven't hit a royal flush in more than 126,000 hands since my last royal.

If, as you say, you play four hours a day for five days, that's 20 hours per week. If you played 50 weeks a year, that's 1,000 hours in a year. If you earn $10,000 per year that's $10 per hour, or $200 per week.

That's not bad for a "side job" or for a retiree. But getting back to my issue about a lack of royals. How many royals did you hit to earn that? Was your frequency of royals in the range of 1 in 40,000 or so, or more frequent? If you went, as I have, 126,000 hands without a royal would you still have a profit? Thanks.

[arcimede$]

First, the description I gave was for our Vegas play from 2004-2009. In Minnesota we would usually go once a week to a casino that was 150 miles away and stay overnight. We would generally play all day and the next morning before heading home. The only game over 100% in Minnesota is OEJs and it's just barely so. The edge in Vegas was much better over that period although we probably used more comps in Minnesota. Each trip would be a room and 2-3 meals. In Vegas we would only use 1-2 meals a day. I didn't count any comps in the numbers above.

The Vegas plays we had ranged from $10-$50/ hour. In Minnesota, I started moving up in denomination although my wife stayed at the quarter level with was less than $10/hour. I would venture we earned over $20/hour in Vegas and played about even in Minnesota.

The royal frequency varied as would be expected. My worst drought was about 200K hands but overall I was real close to expectation. Same story for my wife. Our goal with gambling back when we started this venture was not to make a ton of money. We wanted to avoid the winters in Minnesota. I could play golf 12 months a year as well and I even got some of my golf comped as well. If not for my wife's health problems we would likely still be at it.

The key to making money was playing enough to allow the statistics to take hold and playing with a big edge. We had one play that was 2% or greater for most of the time we were there. Other plays were in the 1-2% range. This is why we played quarters. There were few plays at this level for higher denominations (although a few popped up from time to time).

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, during your royal drought of 200K hands, were you still able to maintain a profit? Or did the lack of royals put you behind, despite the positive games you were playing?

[arcimede$]

I lost money for that period of time. However, the drought ended with 5 RFs in the next month which more than made up for the losses.

[Rob.Singer]

arci's fabricated story here is so funny that it's worth my time just to get the usual belly laugh he provides.

When's the last time anyone ever thought of moving from Minnesota to Las Vegas for the purpose of the hubby & missus to play quarters each day six months every year, then claim it wasn't so they could be closer to the machines, then claim they moved back to a paradise like Minnesota for good because of....get this...."health reasons", then claim to win $10k each in each 6-month block (and arci's math here seems to have missed that these were at $20k clips each since they were only 6 months time periods....better think harder next time my friend, so your lie won't be so easy to catch!). (EDITED BY MODERATOR) And you've gotta enjoy the part about being SOOOO honest about losing when not hitting royals---but ONLY if it includes the feel-good/don't worry 'bout me/all-is-well-folks! caveat that the royals finally just piled up at the end of the day and in the nick of time so a profit could be claimed and mathematical desires could be salvaged.

(EDITED BY MODERATOR) Reader beware. It just isn't that easy, the casinos aren't dumb enough to allow anyone anywhere to be a continual negative influence on their bottom line--no matter how small--and when slot club cards are used that track a player's every move, it really isn't all that hard to piece together. No one, including the biggest vp story teller of all (Dancer) would ever be allowed to regularly walk off with casino money. (EDITED BY MODERATOR)

If anyone's having trouble with any of this, please, contact Howard or Maryann who used to own Gambler's Bookshop in LV. Just before Lenny Fromme died, he was nearly in tears as he opened up with the place that pushed his writings about advantage play, saying he really never could beat the machines doing as he preached, and that NO ONE could do it by trying to get the mathematical edge on their side. He is really the driving force behind what I've accomplished, both at the machines and in my writings. Yet we still have his confused son writing the same misleading articles his father did for a LV gaming paper that has dwindled into virtually nothing ever since its most popular columnist ever left them--and that would of course be me.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, I had to remove some of your personal attacks. Sorry, I just have to draw the line somewhere.

But now, I have to question something you wrote above. You wrote:

Reader beware. It just isn't that easy, the casinos aren't dumb enough to allow anyone anywhere to be a continual negative influence on their bottom line--no matter how small--and when slot club cards are used that track a player's every move, it really isn't all that hard to piece together. No one, including the biggest vp story teller of all (Dancer) would ever be allowed to regularly walk off with casino money.

Rob, you've reported that you won something like a million dollars over a ten year period. Well, how did you get away with it without the casinos barring you? If you could get away with it, why couldn't others?

[arcimede$]

Alan, you saved me from asking the obvious question. Note that Singer is also calling Frank a liar as well.

Also, I never said anything of constant wins of exactly $10K. That is just plain silly. I provided total wins and the average. I guess Singer doesn't understand how averages are computed. Anyway, you once again saw Singer for who he really is. Nothing but personal attacks when he is caught lying.

BTW, I've told Rob the basics of my losing streak long ago.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FREEvpFREE/message/821

[Lucky(St)Louis]

It's like these two are joined at the hip. Do you all just wait for the other to post so you can pounce?

Anyway, setting win goals vs limitations..................It depends on the game you're playing and your reason for playing. For me, sometimes I just want to leave with more than I started. Other times I play for "fun", with no care as to the outcome. I play most all the games available, but really have no expectation of winning at most of them. Best single win was around $8300 on $1 VP progressive. The picture of that only reminds me I spent that back and more. But it is an interesting story as I only stopped in to use the facilities and won on my third hand.

As far as this other discussion, I've read it over and over on other Forums. While it has become a classic..........a classic what I don't know. I like all of you though, just don't end up with any regrets over the time spent on this.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob, I had to remove some of your personal attacks. Sorry, I just have to draw the line somewhere.

But now, I have to question something you wrote above. You wrote:

Reader beware. It just isn't that easy, the casinos aren't dumb enough to allow anyone anywhere to be a continual negative influence on their bottom line--no matter how small--and when slot club cards are used that track a player's every move, it really isn't all that hard to piece together. No one, including the biggest vp story teller of all (Dancer) would ever be allowed to regularly walk off with casino money.

Rob, you've reported that you won something like a million dollars over a ten year period. Well, how did you get away with it without the casinos barring you? If you could get away with it, why couldn't others?

Alan, I have no problem with anything you feel you should remove. As one can readily ascertain, my friend lives for these vp/gaming forums and every little thing gets to him, while to me it's something I get to when I get to it. While my wife and I are out enjoying a nice dinner or shopping or going for a walk, arci goes up the wall waiting to read everything I say and he reads everything instantly, so it always has its desired effect. Life is good

On the winning vs. barring issue, my history was well-documented with letters & names in Gaming Today--as is my own strategy for not being barred from playing.

First, you'll notice that when a storyteller & sales pitchman like Dancer manufactures his winning tales, like arci, he's never been clever enough to double-check both the facts and the sense of what he's saying in his articles & postings. Thus, it's always been easy to catch them in their lies, and is the reason Dancer will never face me in a public debate or on a radio station and arci has such disdain for me. OTOH, you've met me several times, and it isn't really a gut-wrenching experience for you because you know you're basically telling the truth when you write.

These AP's basically play at few casinos because they are both roped in by all the slot club offers, and they migrate to the machines that theoretically can pay better if the player doesn't make mistakes. In arci's case, he supposedly pounds away at one casino because of some story about grandfathered-in oej machines, and expects forum members to believe that he wins every year (but one or two, depending on which forums you read) while religiously using his slot card---but he's never noticed as a player they just cannot make a profit off of. Instead, they just keep showering him with freebies, comps, free-play etc. and "want" him to keep coming back to keep doing it to them over & over again. Make sense out of that if you can. His story is he's "flying under the radar" because of lower-limit play, but if he actually understood the business world he'd see any customer in any business who's impossible to profit off of is a big liability. His trap is that he has to use his slot card for the comps, but at the same time it tracks his every move at the machines. And it his undoing on the forums.

Dancer, if you've noticed over the years, has played at a number of casinos but stays loyal to one or two for a very long time and then moves on when pay tables are lowered or comp programs are reduced. If you've paid attention enough, you'd see for instance where he brags about winning cars--including some large number at the Palms--he's "won" a ton at Terribles, and Sam's Town has been a favorite place for his "killings" for quite a while. Then he writes about his conquests, his comps, his gifts, his cars---and for some strange reason they just keep on inviting him back in to do it to them all over again & again! If anyone who reads his stuff had any sense--and there are some who write to me about it all the time--they'd do the simple math and see it doesn't add up by any stretch. So the obvious conclusion is, the cars he's won have cost him much much more than they're worth (like the recently written about M fiasco that he occasionally throws into his articles to give a hint of reality to the situation so his other stories will have a better chance of being believed) and the reason he still works multiple jobs at an age & time when professionals of all walks are enjoying retirement and the fruits of their labor....is simply because he needs the income just to keep playing the vp machines.

In my case, early on I always used a slot card and was banned from Harrah's & Bellagio. The letters were printed in GT and there was extensive coverage on it--admittedly to brag some on my part. After that I learned my lesson--I infrequently used my slot card whenever I played SPS and the banning stopped even though the winning did not. I had a lot less comps and offers but there was always at least one each trip that gave me a free room, and that's where I played. Machine paytables didn't matter because my strategy can beat any paytable. Further, unlike AP's, I played in casinos all over the state, including in Wendover, Elko, Mesquite, Primm, and Pahrump. In more recent years when I played several other of my less stressful and lower-limit strategies, I used my card more frequently.

Enjoy football today, and GO PATRIOTS!

[Alan Mendelson]

Thanks Rob for your detailed post. I was most interested in your response to my question about why winners get banned and you weren't banned despite your reported wins of about a million dollars over ten years. You answered my question with this statement:

I infrequently used my slot card whenever I played SPS and the banning stopped even though the winning did not.

For those not familiar, "SPS" refers to your system.

Well, let me just say that if indeed this is what happened then good for you. You got away with it. I however, have not been as lucky. As you know, I've been asked (even told) not to play craps at certain casinos supposedly because I'm a dice controller, mechanic, influencer, expert -- you pick the term. So, even though I have returned to the craps pit at the casinos where I'm not wanted they still recognize me within a few minutes and the suits come by even though I don't present a player's card. I think it's because of the eye in the sky, security or perhaps even facial recognition software that they might have.

So, if I get greeted by the bosses when I showed up without a card at the MGM and Bellagio, what makes you so lucky?

(By the way, and for the record, at MGM, Bellagio and NYNY I played strictly by the rules, I did set my dice, I did get lucky and I did have some great rolls that cost the casinos a bunch of money. But it was luck more than skill. Believe me-- I could never make a living playing craps. I've written about those incidents many times on the Internet.)

[Frank Kneeland]

I guess I'm back for a few days. I think I'll not read the last couple of pages to help keep what's left of my sanity. I had a nice dinner last night with some local psychologists and got the ball rolling on a look at the Singer System. The only thing that was agreed upon was that the entire topic is incredibly complex and that they all liked the fact that I was approaching the subject with a desire to help people at the forefront of my concerns.

They were surprised that I wasn't dismissing something offhandedly that so obviously contradicts my own beliefs. Apparently, that is unusual.

I'll let you all know if we make any headway in the psych area.

On the math front Rob's theories are proving difficult if not impossible to even test, as they have no chain of causation. What he has is data, but his data is not in support of an actual theory. If you are unfamiliar with the scientific method's finer points it would be hard to understand. Essentially, there is a world of difference between something which is not provable, and something that is not disprovable. The burden of proof is not the same as it is in a court of law.

I cannot disprove the existence of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, but that isn't a reason to believe in it.

Rob's been silent for the last couple of days, I'm waiting to hear back from him about how he created his system.

~FK

[Alan Mendelson]

It's good that you're back and I hope things are getting better with your family, Frank.

I think you might want to read up on some of what you missed as there were some statements made that directly involve you. Namely Rob's comment that the casinos do not tolerate winners playing their games, including video poker. Rob wrote:

the casinos aren't dumb enough to allow anyone anywhere to be a continual negative influence on their bottom line--no matter how small--and when slot club cards are used that track a player's every move, it really isn't all that hard to piece together. No one, including the biggest vp story teller of all (Dancer) would ever be allowed to regularly walk off with casino money.

I'm sure this would also apply to "teams" playing progressives. Have you ever run into this resistance, have you been barred? Rob seems to think that only losers are allowed to keep playing so therefore if you keep playing you are a loser.

Frank, are video poker winners banned?

I do note, however, that even Bob Dancer has written in his columns that the casinos will take some sort of action against advantage players so that they can't dominate certain promotions and drawings, but has he ever been totally banned from a casino? Has he even been asked to stop playing as I have at craps?

[Frank Kneeland]

These are interesting questions.

1. Progressive Teams do not take money out of the casino's pocket, they take it from the other player's pockets. Much like live poker. It is not a problem unless you get a biased slot boss, or customer complaints.

2. Yes of course there is some banning of VP professionals. Bob is 86ed from better than 50% of all the casinos in town. The ones that don't bar him, likely are afraid of the bad publicity, or they are hoping that Bob's presence will attract enough customers that it offsets his cost.

3. In a meeting with the Palms management I asked them directly why they wanted to sponsor my radio-show and why they did not mind my own play. They answered that in their opinion my presence encouraged people to gamble more, and that perhaps only 2 in 100 of those people would be able to get an edge on them. My own experience would lead me to believe that it's closer to 4%, but still you can see it from their POV. Pro gamblers that publicly talk about where they play are good for business.

4. There is the perceived luck factor. Out of all the many people that gamble some win due to nothing but "luck". For the casino it is hard to differentiate between luck and skill.

4. Lastly, there are many things one can do to fake losses and stay in good graces, even when you are winning.

~FK

[Alan Mendelson]

Thanks Frank. One thing I'd like to point out-- you wrote:

1. Progressive Teams do not take money out of the casino's pocket, they take it from the other player's pockets. Much like live poker. It is not a problem unless you get a biased slot boss, or customer complaints.

This is mostly correct. Yes, the progressive amount above the base royal is contributed by the players and under Nevada gaming rules must be returned to the players in the form of "wins." But the base royal amount comes from the casino, as do the wins on the smaller payoffs.

[Frank Kneeland]

Thanks Frank. One thing I'd like to point out-- you wrote:

1. Progressive Teams do not take money out of the casino's pocket, they take it from the other player's pockets. Much like live poker. It is not a problem unless you get a biased slot boss, or customer complaints.

This is mostly correct. Yes, the progressive amount above the base royal is contributed by the players and under Nevada gaming rules must be returned to the players in the form of "wins." But the base royal amount comes from the casino, as do the wins on the smaller payoffs.

Yes of course. Typically the reset Royal accounts for 2% of the return. On the progressives we play the meter-rise accounts for 4-6% additional return. From the casino's POV we are 2% losers. From our POV we have a 2-4% edge. It used to be better in the old days. Things have gotten lean.

Bottom Line: Progressive pros are very different from AP's and catch far less heat from casinos. Some even like us. We also make more money, more consistently than AP's.

The drawback to progressive play is it absolutely requires a team to take full advantage. You cannot play progressives by yourself without giving up most of the advantage.