You wish. Why wouldn't I want it to be true? I DO want it to be true, but that doesn't change the fact that it's not true. If it were true, then it would be exploitable, and if it were exploitable, then I could figure out how to exploit it.
Being good at pattern recognition is a necessary biological trait that we wouldn't have survived without. In the wild, we would make cause-and-effect decisions based on our observations (or accounts) of previous situations in which the same set of conditions (causes) to some extent, were in place. That doesn't mean that there is a cause-and-effect in what we perceive as patterns in video poker hands or on slot machine games...though with variable-state slot machines, that's actually sometimes true. In Video Poker, there is only one cause---and that cause is randomness. When it comes to long-term results, it's randomness accompanied by how strong your strategy is compared to optimal.
But, no, I would love nothing more than for VP machines to NOT be random as long as they were not random in a way that is exploitable.
Truth or falsity, however, do not tend to bend to my personal wishes.
Damn...you realize that's one of the favorite go to arguments of us, "Math Guys," for explaining why someone could be ahead after what seems (to them) to be a significant number of hands at a negative expectation game, right?
Paraphrase: A combination over a ten or fifteen minute cycle where nothing is coming (meaning lots of total throwaways or not converting 2P into FH), then you know the machine is cold.
Let's take the high side of that and go fifteen minutes. If I play 800HPH, then I play an average of 200 hands in fifteen minutes. My probability of a dealt Two Pair is 4.7539% (per hand), so I should see about 9.5078....but we will call it ten...dealt Two Pairs in this period of time. The probability of my NOT converting that to a Full House on any given dealt two pair is (44/48), so the probability of it not happening ten consecutive times is (44/48)^10 = 0.41890388788.
So, what you're telling me is that if I get the expected number of Two Pairs within a fifteen minute period and do NOT convert any of them, that tells me that the, "Machine is cold?"
Bullshit. First of all, you were just talking about small v. large samples two minutes prior to that. Secondly, that just means I'm cold on that particular draw...you could have the same thing happen, but probably wouldn't notice, if you hit a quad or two within that same fifteen minute period.
Although, you're combining missing that particular draw with getting more than expected, "No holds." If you accept, as you should, that a, "No Hold," is the worst case scenario from an EV-standpoint...then what you are calling a, "Cold machine," is no different from me saying, "I haven't been running well the last few minutes." It's not indicative of anything.
It depends. What's a hot cycle? If you're talking about ringing quads up within ten hands of one another, not often. If you're talking about getting several consecutive wins on the lower end of the paytable...then I would say plenty of times. People tend not to notice when they're hitting a bunch of consecutive 2P + 3OaK with a JoB result here and there though.
Paraphrase: How do you know they're legit?
It would only take one disgruntled employee of the device manufacturer.
It's kind of funny how we see Video Poker downgraded more and more frequently, isn't it? You'd think they could have more 100%+ machines if they were gaffed. You'd also think the newer jurisdictions would open their casinos with 100%+ since you maintain that the games are not random and, consequently, don't pay that with Optimal Strategy anyway.
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