Stop limits.

[kewlJ]

I have always argued against stop limits. Usually, it is in the context of a negative expectation player, like the former owner of this forum or even the tall tale telling Newell guy, who think stop limits, win limits or loss limits change anything as for as expectation. These folks always think stop limit changes a -Ev game to +Ev somehow.

The fact is whatever is going to happen the next round you play, next session, next day you play is going to happen, whether that play, round, session occurs in 2 minutes or 2 months. You aren't changing anything!

So that said, , I am stopping my play for the year, a very good year, after a significant winning play of the last couple weeks...in part to preserve a real nice year. Hey THAT sounds a lot like a stop limit!

There may be a touch of voodoo-ism thinking in there, but I usually quit for the year just after the Rodeo comes to town (which starts tomorrow) and now am choosing to do so just a wee bit early. Call it voodoo, but after last year horrendous in so many way, my blackjack/AP results included, I want to book this real nice year for me. I don't think I am changing any future results by stopping a bit early and that is the real voodoo-ism behind stop limits. But anyone thinking I am dipping into voodoo territory or being hypocritical of my stop limit position...feel free.

What do you think Maxpen, mickey, even my old friend BoSox and a couple other real players that I respect? Whimpy? voodoo, anti-Ap thinking?

[accountinquestion]

Clearly there is value in quitting something while ahead to enjoy being ahead. If you don't see this then you're probably not as sharp as those who do. Now if you only value $ then it'd never make any sense. If you don't need money that much (don't value it) and value your time more then clearly don't gamble for a bit. Either to escape the brutality of a downswing or ride a win for awhile. Either way is valid thinking.

You do seem like you're dressing up the idea differently so your specific thinking might be a bit wonky.

Wheres Tanya

[mcap]

I think you’re just trying to troll Robby here.

Everyone who spends their life in casinos needs a mental break from that shit environment every once in awhile or else they end up being a 100% of the time bitter cynical asshole like Grosjean.

[redietz]

I have arguments to suggest that what you are doing makes sense. What you do requires skill, ongoing awareness, and planning. And you are not a tireless robot, so hunkering down and recharging may make some sense. Plus there is a covid angle. Allow me to elucidate.

1) No matter how much we would like to perceive ourselves as automatons doing what we do, we're not robots. Fatigue can set in. And I can tell you, it gets worse as you get older. So cutting matters short a bit can have some value long term. You can pound in some workouts in the weeks ahead so you are in even better physical shape next year. You can rest your brain a bit, and maybe -- LOL -- your eyes for those two table opportunities (that one's for Argentino). Rest more now, play more later, perhaps.

2) What I do is seasonal, not ongoing every week, so I have occasionally said that's a wrap without regard to trying to add some incremental profit to an already good year. A good example of this -- about 10 years ago, I was in a public website handicapping competition. I won 17 ATS games in a row. I had a 66-34 ATS record. I was second, and I was going to be second. The leader was unconscious, mainly with Pac 12 and Mountain West totals. And of course it was winner-take-all. There was no rule on number of games or anything, just an end date for the contest. I said, the hell with it, 66-34 ATS is a helluva monster handicapping record for the year. I call it a wrap. Privately, I bet a couple more games, but in that contest, I shut it down. I felt like the round 100 games figure had some PR value and losing the next game was going to muck it up more than winning the next game would enhance it.

3) How you schedule your physical and mental rest is on your shoulders. You know better than anyone how to pace yourself. If it's time for a break, take a break. You earned it.

4) You're heading (with the exception of the week immediately after rodeo) into busy season in Las Vegas with a new covid variant. May as well steer clear of crowds as much as possible until a new vaccine can deal with it. Shutting down for the next three or four weeks is not a bad idea from that perspective.


Think of it as a covid-conscious recharge, not win goal voodoo.

[monet]

It isn't a stop win or a stop loss.
It's all one long game till you decide to never place another bet.
You decide to keep your records annually.
My records are continual.
I never stop win a positive play.
I never stop loss a positive play either.
I play till I break it off and after that move to the next situation.
Obviously, taking a vacation is fine but the less hours you put in the less you make... period.
Now if you all could instruct me how to make an easy 600 dollars a day I am still listening.
Why would anyone stop playing any day if they are ringing the cash register every day for 600 bills?

[MaxPen]

I have always argued against stop limits. Usually, it is in the context of a negative expectation player, like the former owner of this forum or even the tall tale telling Newell guy, who think stop limits, win limits or loss limits change anything as for as expectation. These folks always think stop limit changes a -Ev game to +Ev somehow.

The fact is whatever is going to happen the next round you play, next session, next day you play is going to happen, whether that play, round, session occurs in 2 minutes or 2 months. You aren't changing anything!

So that said, , I am stopping my play for the year, a very good year, after a significant winning play of the last couple weeks...in part to preserve a real nice year. Hey THAT sounds a lot like a stop limit!

There may be a touch of voodoo-ism thinking in there, but I usually quit for the year just after the Rodeo comes to town (which starts tomorrow) and now am choosing to do so just a wee bit early. Call it voodoo, but after last year horrendous in so many way, my blackjack/AP results included, I want to book this real nice year for me. I don't think I am changing any future results by stopping a bit early and that is the real voodoo-ism behind stop limits. But anyone thinking I am dipping into voodoo territory or being hypocritical of my stop limit position...feel free.

What do you think Maxpen, mickey, even my old friend BoSox and a couple other real players that I respect? Whimpy? voodoo, anti-Ap thinking?

I say whatever floats your boat. The whole point of pursuing advantage play is the freedom that it brings to do what you want when you want.

That being said,,, what you are doing is not optimal if you care about gross return. Bottom line, you are forfeiting ev for whatever psychological benefit you are getting.

But if you operated 100% optimally to whatever you subscribe to then you would be a slave to that protocol.

So, do whatever you want. We all only have one life.

[kewlJ]

It's not exactly about recharging. Had plenty of "recharging' and pacing last year only playing about 6 months between the casino shutdown and a few self imposed breaks when I didn't feel comfortable playing. This year I didn't even start playing until April 1. So I have only played my normal game about 8 months, prior to this different opportunity the past couple weeks. I have learned to get more EV in with less rounds played, by selectively playing higher stakes during these unique times.

I could play another 2 weeks and win just a bit more and it would be the best year I ever had. Or I could play another 2 weeks and slide backwards 15-20 k and this would still be a very good year. If this was 2 years ago, or any year before that I would be chasing EV until the day I had decided to stop for the year. But after last year, my results, minimal income, I just feel like booking my decent year. I don't know, maybe sort of an internal victory dance in that when you go through such an extraordinary lousy year like I had last year, doubts seep in, even though after 18 years you understand the variance. So a year that has "righted" everything, I just want to "book it", take a little time off and move on to 2022 and see what that brings.

It's just that thought process, both thinking it and writing it just seems a little bit contradictory to what I have publicly argued. Seems a little hypocritical. I am ok with my "little hypocrital decision". Just thought I would throw it out there and see what everyone else thought.

On the other hand, maybe not hypocritical at all. Maybe just adjusting to changing and different situations.

[kewlJ]

It isn't a stop win or a stop loss.
It's all one long game till you decide to never place another bet.
You decide to keep your records annually.
My records are continual.
I never stop win a positive play.
I never stop loss a positive play either.
I play till I break it off and after that move to the next situation.
Obviously, taking a vacation is fine but the less hours you put in the less you make... period.
Now if you all could instruct me how to make an easy 600 dollars a day I am still listening.
Why would anyone stop playing any day if they are ringing the cash register every day for 600 bills?

Ok, a couple things. As I am sure you know, with card counting we are not ringing the cash register every day for $600 or whatever amount we average. There are losing days and winning days, some fairly large in each direction.

As per "choosing" to keep my records annually. Not really me that chooses that. The Government chooses that. I don't want to get into how you keep records or what or IF you pay.....that is none of my business. But I do it the way I do it for a reason.

[kewlJ]

I say whatever floats your boat. The whole point of pursuing advantage play is the freedom that it brings to do what you want when you want.

That being said,,, what you are doing is not optimal if you care about gross return. Bottom line, you are forfeiting ev for whatever psychological benefit you are getting.

But if you operated 100% optimally to whatever you subscribe to then you would be a slave to that protocol.

So, do whatever you want. We all only have one life.

Good points.

BTW, I do lots of things that aren't optimal. If I was playing optimally, I really shouldn't play ANY -EV rounds.

I also don't minimum bet off the top which is a -EV situation or round. My neutral wager is a little higher so I can spread both ways.

I also don't use the huge spread that other card counters use. I use a moderate spread. Not optimal. I guess optimal would be betting table max in ALL +EV situations.

I play card counter's basic strategy, which of course is not optimal.

Most of these things I chose not optimal for longevity reasons, but I certainly am not a slave to optimal play and return. Ilike to think it is a balancing act.

[monet]

So, do whatever you want. We all only have one life.

Revelation
2:11
20:6
20:14

IMO the scariest verse of them all.
Makes me shudder when reading it...
21:8

But the fearful, and unbelieving, and the abominable, and murderers, and whoremongers, and sorcerers, and idolaters, and all liars, shall have their part in the lake which burneth with fire and brimstone: which is the second death.

[kewlJ]

Everyone who spends their life in casinos needs a mental break from that shit environment every once in awhile or else they end up being a 100% of the time bitter cynical asshole like Grosjean.

You sir, are really harsh on King J. We all know he can be sarcastic and a bit snotty, but that is just his way. I don't think he is particularly being "bitter". I think that is the way he teaches. he wants to point a player in the right direction and have them figure some of it out for themselves. If he really wanted to be a dick, he would never share anything or try to help anyone. Anyway...whatever.

[kewlJ]

So, do whatever you want. We all only have one life.

Revelation
2:11
20:6
20:14

IMO the scariest verse of them all.
Makes me shudder when reading it...
21:8

But the fearful, and unbelieving, and the abominable, and murderers, and whoremongers, and sorcerers, and idolaters, and all liars, shall have their part in the lake which burneth with fire and brimstone: which is the second death.

The Bible is heresay. It is different people's interpretations of things passed down.

Don't take everything so literally. Maybe someone had a bad day and interpreted something in the harshest or nastiest way.

I talk to my God every day. He is not a vengeful man, woman, or spirit at all and I believe in my most dire times of need when I have asked for help, my God had come through for me.

It is just hard for me to accept some of the things written in the bible. Those are the words of men, not God, and certainly some of the things said, not my God.

But to each his own.

[mcap]

A BIT snotty? You’re too kind...

[kewlJ]

A BIT snotty? You’re too kind...

Maybe you have had different dealing than I have.

I mean he has said things publicly about me that seem a little harsh. Things like I should be more advanced than card counting. So what. I am the salamander that he loves to put down. I play by my game plan, and goals and not his.

[mcap]

No I don’t know him beyond his writing and don’t get the impression I’d want to despite the knowledge he holds. Yeah he’s the gambling GOAT but he comes across like he absolutely hates life itself yet keeps doing it. Bitter was the wrong word. Mostly just unbelievably cynical to the extent you feel the need to invent a new word that goes beyond cynical. Too much damn time in the casino imo.

[redietz]

No I don’t know him beyond his writing and don’t get the impression I’d want to despite the knowledge he holds. Yeah he’s the gambling GOAT but he comes across like he absolutely hates life itself yet keeps doing it. Bitter was the wrong word. Mostly just unbelievably cynical to the extent you feel the need to invent a new word that goes beyond cynical. Too much damn time in the casino imo.

Or too much damn time living, period. I think there's some kind of algorithmic scale -- once you hit 50, the cynicism seems to grow. It's not that you're seeing things that weren't always there. They were always there. But now you see them for what they are.

Quick postscript for kewlJ: I know I don't have to say this, but don't allow MDawg's ragging with his "kewlJ lost last year" to affect your decision-making. Don't worry about a high water mark for the year to brag about. Just do your thing.

[jbjb]

I'll quit when I'm dead.

[mickeycrimm]

KJ is not really taking that much time off if he usually quits after the rodeo. Maybe a couple of weeks. December is slow so he would stick out more anyway. Congratulations on the good year.

Age and health means I don't try to play off all the EV anymore.

[accountinquestion]

At some point the utility of trying to finish off every play is just not there. That is an interesting discussion to see. What people write off as beneath their time. If you're stuck at one place and nothing else to do, then time is worth little and doing every little thing might make sense. Just another way of killing time..

[redietz]

KJ is not really taking that much time off if he usually quits after the rodeo. Maybe a couple of weeks. December is slow so he would stick out more anyway. Congratulations on the good year.

Age and health means I don't try to play off all the EV anymore.

What mickey said.

The older you get, the more each hour you have left is worth, relatively speaking.