Native American Casinos RTP Business Strategy

[Rounder]

I have noticed on two separate occasions that it seemed new games were much much looser when they first hit the floor, then played tighter later on. Initially easier to get bonus rounds, easier to get accumulaters, better base game return, etc. Then it seemed to be harder to win a month or so later.

Which is more likely?

A. I ran hot out the gate over a decent sample size on both games and the numbers regressed to the mean later

Or

B. Since native American casinos aren't held to the same regulation of practices as the legal jurisdictions, they put a brand new game out set to a higher RTP initially, to get the public to like it and feel more comfortable with it, and then lower the RTP later.

I could see the latter possibly being the case, as people remember winning for a long time and will continue to play that game longer with that initial positive experience. Years even. It's easier to win on a looser game, obviously.

I could also see the former being plausible as well. This was over the course of months, not days, and many thousands of spins, but not a huge sample by any means.

I have heard about people saying games get "nerfed", but couldn't it simply be this is what is happening? The casino just cranks down the RTP? Reprogramming and QA to fundamentally change the game would cost a fortune for the manufacturers, I would think.

[DGenBen]

Don’t know for certain but I have a theory for a different reason this might seem to be the case.

When a new bonus machine hits the floor there is less competition for the game so you get more plays and the plays are higher EV so naturally you have great results.

Later when everyone has figured the game out you get fewer plays and usually lower EV since there is heavy competition for very juicy plays.

So you remember killing the game when it first came out, and now you have a lot of losing sessions balanced out by some meager winning sessions for the few small plays you can find on the game.

A & or B could still be happening but I think the above causes the bigger effect.

[mickeycrimm]

I always take it with a grain of salt when someone says they "nerfed" a game, whatever that means. All they can do is change the game to a lower or higher payback. IGT usually has about 6 different paybacks for a game from 85% to as high as 97%.

There's one game where I can always tell the RTP by counting down the free games meters. That's Progressive Free Games. Pics below.

The chart below the game shows the different configurations according to the RTP. Notice on the 95% version the countdowns are 38/80/450. That means the red number you see at 5 increments every 38 spins, green every 80 spins, blue every 450 spins. They all max at 15.

I know two casinos where the 95% game was installed and the payback has remained the same for 3 years. They haven't been "nerfed."

If you notice, every payback in the chart has a different countdown for the red free games. That makes it easy to determine which payback you are dealing with in a particular casino.

I know 3 locations with 93% payback. The payback hasn't been altered since they were installed about 3 years ago.

I know a dozen locations with the 91% game and the payback hasn't changed since they were installed about 3 years ago.

The 95% game is high denom, from $4 to $10. The 93% and 91%'ers low denom, usually $2 max bet.

The house already has a big edge on these games. There is really no reason to "nerf" a game.

I use the Progressive Free Games as a barometer of the payback range in a casino.

The CZR properties always have the lowest payback for this game, 85%. They are unplayable.

[Rounder]

I always take it with a grain of salt when someone says they "nerfed" a game, whatever that means. All they can do is change the game to a lower or higher payback. IGT usually has about 6 different paybacks for a game from 85% to as high as 97%.

There's one game where I can always tell the RTP by counting down the free games meters. That's Progressive Free Games. Pics below.

The chart below the game shows the different configurations according to the RTP. Notice on the 95% version the countdowns are 38/80/450. That means the red number you see at 5 increments every 38 spins, green every 80 spins, blue every 450 spins. They all max at 15.

I know two casinos where the 95% game was installed and the payback has remained the same for 3 years. They haven't been "nerfed."

If you notice, every payback in the chart has a different countdown for the red free games. That makes it easy to determine which payback you are dealing with in a particular casino.

I know 3 locations with 93% payback. The payback hasn't been altered since they were installed about 3 years ago.

I know a dozen locations with the 91% game and the payback hasn't changed since they were installed about 3 years ago.

The 95% game is high denom, from $4 to $10. The 93% and 91%'ers low denom, usually $2 max bet.

The house already has a big edge on these games. There is really no reason to "nerf" a game.

I use the Progressive Free Games as a barometer of the payback range in a casino.

The CZR properties always have the lowest payback for this game, 85%. They are unplayable.

Mickey,

Have you ever seen it where Progressive Free Games is set to 85%, but they mix up the RTP from the other games for some reason? Or, is it pretty safe to say that if the house has this game at 85%, they probably have all games set at low paybacks?

I ask because I have been doing well at this one place for a while and assumed they didn't have the games totally cranked down. Then I counted down Progressive Free Games and it was the 110 85% game! I was very surprised. This is a native American casino in a somewhat competitive market too, not CZR.

Also, does actually hitting the red count, or do you only count a move from 5 to 6 after triggering the red to determine RTP. I noticed the red bonus round triggered way more than every 110 spins, but the actual move from 5 to 6 was consistent at around 110. In fact, I never saw it get to 7. It only went to 6 twice. It was a max bet, so maybe it is set to have more red bonuses at that level.

[Rounder]

Don’t know for certain but I have a theory for a different reason this might seem to be the case.

When a new bonus machine hits the floor there is less competition for the game so you get more plays and the plays are higher EV so naturally you have great results.

Later when everyone has figured the game out you get fewer plays and usually lower EV since there is heavy competition for very juicy plays.

So you remember killing the game when it first came out, and now you have a lot of losing sessions balanced out by some meager winning sessions for the few small plays you can find on the game.

A & or B could still be happening but I think the above causes the bigger effect.

This is a great point. Definitely makes sense on one of the games, but I swear the accumulators came easier on the other game when it was more new.

I mean, if they could and it was legal, why wouldn't a casino bring on a new game to the floor set at a higher RTP to get people hooked and then ratchet it back later? I could see this really working. Its easier for Native American casinos to change RTP vs a jurisdiction like Las Vegas, right?

The downside is missed revenue since people are going to play the new game anyway to try it out.

[mickeycrimm]

I always take it with a grain of salt when someone says they "nerfed" a game, whatever that means. All they can do is change the game to a lower or higher payback. IGT usually has about 6 different paybacks for a game from 85% to as high as 97%.

There's one game where I can always tell the RTP by counting down the free games meters. That's Progressive Free Games. Pics below.

The chart below the game shows the different configurations according to the RTP. Notice on the 95% version the countdowns are 38/80/450. That means the red number you see at 5 increments every 38 spins, green every 80 spins, blue every 450 spins. They all max at 15.

I know two casinos where the 95% game was installed and the payback has remained the same for 3 years. They haven't been "nerfed."

If you notice, every payback in the chart has a different countdown for the red free games. That makes it easy to determine which payback you are dealing with in a particular casino.

I know 3 locations with 93% payback. The payback hasn't been altered since they were installed about 3 years ago.

I know a dozen locations with the 91% game and the payback hasn't changed since they were installed about 3 years ago.

The 95% game is high denom, from $4 to $10. The 93% and 91%'ers low denom, usually $2 max bet.

The house already has a big edge on these games. There is really no reason to "nerf" a game.

I use the Progressive Free Games as a barometer of the payback range in a casino.

The CZR properties always have the lowest payback for this game, 85%. They are unplayable.

Mickey,

Have you ever seen it where Progressive Free Games is set to 85%, but they mix up the RTP from the other games for some reason? Or, is it pretty safe to say that if the house has this game at 85%, they probably have all games set at low paybacks?

I ask because I have been doing well at this one place for a while and assumed they didn't have the games totally cranked down. Then I counted down Progressive Free Games and it was the 110 85% game! I was very surprised. This is a native American casino in a somewhat competitive market too, not CZR.

Also, does actually hitting the red count, or do you only count a move from 5 to 6 after triggering the red to determine RTP. I noticed the red bonus round triggered way more than every 110 spins, but the actual move from 5 to 6 was consistent at around 110. In fact, I never saw it get to 7. It only went to 6 twice. It was a max bet, so maybe it is set to have more red bonuses at that level.

I use the PFG as a barometer but it's not written in stone.

You can start the count when the red flips to a higher number or after it triggers.

[accountinquestion]

Last time I was messing with 15s they flipped early like 5+ times in a row preventing me from counting the cycle. It wasn't that important so I gave up wondering if I was confused or something had changed..

Anyway, I'm having the same general RTP question where I'm at. I don't think there is a 15 here but I want to take some bigger plays but I would really like to know RTP of some games at this casino.

It seems to me that the games could potentially be set all over the place. If there are no laws dictating RTP then one of 2 things happen, either the guy in charge of setting meter rate sets each one individually or they're all set as close as possible to some default sitewide RTP.

Would they ever change some of them individually? It doesn't seem likely but I can't think of a solid reason they wouldn't necessarily have vastly differing RTPs. I suppose reports wouldn't work as well but I can't think of a real solid reason why RTPs couldn't differ. Kinda a scary thought if you're doing larger plays that are based on hard numbers and not visual graphical bonus states.

[tableplay]

Last time I was messing with 15s they flipped early like 5+ times in a row preventing me from counting the cycle. It wasn't that important so I gave up wondering if I was confused or something had changed..

Anyway, I'm having the same general RTP question where I'm at. I don't think there is a 15 here but I want to take some bigger plays but I would really like to know RTP of some games at this casino.

It seems to me that the games could potentially be set all over the place. If there are no laws dictating RTP then one of 2 things happen, either the guy in charge of setting meter rate sets each one individually or they're all set as close as possible to some default sitewide RTP.

Would they ever change some of them individually? It doesn't seem likely but I can't think of a solid reason they wouldn't necessarily have vastly differing RTPs. I suppose reports wouldn't work as well but I can't think of a real solid reason why RTPs couldn't differ. Kinda a scary thought if you're doing larger plays that are based on hard numbers and not visual graphical bonus states.

RTP is part of the battle but not all of it IMHO. If the variance is high on a given slot then a good portion of the RTP will be realized on rare or very rare base game hits. Not that much different than video poker in this regard. So you could blow out your bank roll before you converge on the RTP on such a slot. The pros on VCT may have better insights on this.

[accountinquestion]

Last time I was messing with 15s they flipped early like 5+ times in a row preventing me from counting the cycle. It wasn't that important so I gave up wondering if I was confused or something had changed..

Anyway, I'm having the same general RTP question where I'm at. I don't think there is a 15 here but I want to take some bigger plays but I would really like to know RTP of some games at this casino.

It seems to me that the games could potentially be set all over the place. If there are no laws dictating RTP then one of 2 things happen, either the guy in charge of setting meter rate sets each one individually or they're all set as close as possible to some default sitewide RTP.

Would they ever change some of them individually? It doesn't seem likely but I can't think of a solid reason they wouldn't necessarily have vastly differing RTPs. I suppose reports wouldn't work as well but I can't think of a real solid reason why RTPs couldn't differ. Kinda a scary thought if you're doing larger plays that are based on hard numbers and not visual graphical bonus states.

RTP is part of the battle but not all of it IMHO. If the variance is high on a given slot then a good portion of the RTP will be realized on rare or very rare base game hits. Not that much different than video poker in this regard. So you could blow out your bank roll before you converge on the RTP on such a slot. The pros on VCT may have better insights on this.

I'm messing with MHBs to get coin-in. I don't think I've ever chased a top-line progressive to this day. I was warned by someone early on and it makes sense. Knowing RTP on these ainsworths would be useful. I feel like what I see around casino (what hasn't been played) + spreadsheet = what I had previously estimated from a casino in same market. So I'm on the right track but if I want to get coinin for the day or trying to lose money on a card... I wouldn't mind cutting it very thin when chasing minors.

[accountinquestion]

Last time I was messing with 15s they flipped early like 5+ times in a row preventing me from counting the cycle. It wasn't that important so I gave up wondering if I was confused or something had changed..

Anyway, I'm having the same general RTP question where I'm at. I don't think there is a 15 here but I want to take some bigger plays but I would really like to know RTP of some games at this casino.

It seems to me that the games could potentially be set all over the place. If there are no laws dictating RTP then one of 2 things happen, either the guy in charge of setting meter rate sets each one individually or they're all set as close as possible to some default sitewide RTP.

Would they ever change some of them individually? It doesn't seem likely but I can't think of a solid reason they wouldn't necessarily have vastly differing RTPs. I suppose reports wouldn't work as well but I can't think of a real solid reason why RTPs couldn't differ. Kinda a scary thought if you're doing larger plays that are based on hard numbers and not visual graphical bonus states.

RTP is part of the battle but not all of it IMHO. If the variance is high on a given slot then a good portion of the RTP will be realized on rare or very rare base game hits. Not that much different than video poker in this regard. So you could blow out your bank roll before you converge on the RTP on such a slot. The pros on VCT may have better insights on this.

I'm messing with MHBs to get coin-in. I don't think I've ever chased a top-line progressive to this day. I was warned by someone early on and it makes sense. Knowing RTP on these ainsworths would be useful. I feel like what I see around casino (what hasn't been played) + spreadsheet = what I had previously estimated from a casino in same market. So I'm on the right track but if I want to get coinin for the day or trying to lose money on a card... I wouldn't mind cutting it very thin when chasing minors.

What I meant is that my spreadsheet calculations are right in line with the distribution of the machines I have been coming across. Making the spreadsheet has been quite fun.. maybe I'll clean it up and simplify when done. I'm still uncertain how to model it all. Seems like maybe there are multiple ways to conceptualizse it which would all work.

After learning about machines so much the fun has worn off and competing with the local homeless population doesn't seem that great so time to up my game a bit.

[mcap]

Last time I was messing with 15s they flipped early like 5+ times in a row preventing me from counting the cycle. It wasn't that important so I gave up wondering if I was confused or something had changed..

Anyway, I'm having the same general RTP question where I'm at. I don't think there is a 15 here but I want to take some bigger plays but I would really like to know RTP of some games at this casino.

It seems to me that the games could potentially be set all over the place. If there are no laws dictating RTP then one of 2 things happen, either the guy in charge of setting meter rate sets each one individually or they're all set as close as possible to some default sitewide RTP.

Would they ever change some of them individually? It doesn't seem likely but I can't think of a solid reason they wouldn't necessarily have vastly differing RTPs. I suppose reports wouldn't work as well but I can't think of a real solid reason why RTPs couldn't differ. Kinda a scary thought if you're doing larger plays that are based on hard numbers and not visual graphical bonus states.

I’ve always just counted down the 5x because of the 2x going off so frequently before it flips.

[DGenBen]

Usually the RTP is the same or similar across a casino floor by denomination. This seems to especially hold true of pennies.

IE one casino I counted down the 15s to find the payback at 87% Later in the year saw the payback on 2 other penny machines when they opened up the machines for ticket jams, handpays etc and they were 87% as well.

Same at another casino saw one penny game at 91% and then 2 other completely different penny games at 91% also.

Heard dollar machines can fluctuate a little more but usually still within a point or 2.

I believe this is bcuz since pennies are usually set to the lower end of the spectrum the diff manufactures and themes usually will have the same payback options ie 85 87 89 91 etc. But as dollar machines are much less numerous than penny machines & are typically set higher (except CZR) the options across themes and manufacturers are not as uniform so a casino may have 92% 93% 94% 1$ all on the same floor.

[Rounder]

Usually the RTP is the same or similar across a casino floor by denomination. This seems to especially hold true of pennies.

IE one casino I counted down the 15s to find the payback at 87% Later in the year saw the payback on 2 other penny machines when they opened up the machines for ticket jams, handpays etc and they were 87% as well.

Same at another casino saw one penny game at 91% and then 2 other completely different penny games at 91% also.

Heard dollar machines can fluctuate a little more but usually still within a point or 2.

I believe this is bcuz since pennies are usually set to the lower end of the spectrum the diff manufactures and themes usually will have the same payback options ie 85 87 89 91 etc. But as dollar machines are much less numerous than penny machines & are typically set higher (except CZR) the options across themes and manufacturers are not as uniform so a casino may have 92% 93% 94% 1$ all on the same floor.

What about not necessarily denom (penny vs quarter vs dollar), but just total bet amount? I swear it seems on some of the penny games at one of the main places I play that they set the RTP higher when you get above $5 a spin vs .75 etc., yet it is still technically a penny denom.

[DGenBen]

Usually the RTP is the same or similar across a casino floor by denomination. This seems to especially hold true of pennies.

IE one casino I counted down the 15s to find the payback at 87% Later in the year saw the payback on 2 other penny machines when they opened up the machines for ticket jams, handpays etc and they were 87% as well.

Same at another casino saw one penny game at 91% and then 2 other completely different penny games at 91% also.

Heard dollar machines can fluctuate a little more but usually still within a point or 2.

I believe this is bcuz since pennies are usually set to the lower end of the spectrum the diff manufactures and themes usually will have the same payback options ie 85 87 89 91 etc. But as dollar machines are much less numerous than penny machines & are typically set higher (except CZR) the options across themes and manufacturers are not as uniform so a casino may have 92% 93% 94% 1$ all on the same floor.

What about not necessarily denom (penny vs quarter vs dollar), but just total bet amount? I swear it seems on some of the penny games at one of the main places I play that they set the RTP higher when you get above $5 a spin vs .75 etc., yet it is still technically a penny denom.

There is usually not a way to tell for certain if this is a case on a particular game, but some penny games are configured at a higher payback on the bigger bets.

It makes sense because on a penny game that ranges say .30cents to $10.00 the casino might want to hold 15% on the .30 cent bet (4.5 cents a spin) but holding the same 15% on $10 ($1.50) per spin player would wipe the bigger player out too fast and the casino wants to encourage bigger action so maybe the $10 bet level is set at a 7% hold for example.

It is known that some games are available to be configured this way, but no way to tell for certain.

I would guess though that if you are at say a CZR property you can assume all bet levels are set to the lowest payback regardless of min, max bet, but if you are at a place with good payback on high denoms those would be the most likely to have better return at higher bets on pennies (but certainly not guaranteed)

Would also assume that older games would tend to be same on all bet levels. Newer games with huge spreads on the same denom would be the most likely to have better RTP.

Take this info with a grain of salt, I believe it is correct, but I could be wrong.

[accountinquestion]

Usually the RTP is the same or similar across a casino floor by denomination. This seems to especially hold true of pennies.

IE one casino I counted down the 15s to find the payback at 87% Later in the year saw the payback on 2 other penny machines when they opened up the machines for ticket jams, handpays etc and they were 87% as well.

Same at another casino saw one penny game at 91% and then 2 other completely different penny games at 91% also.

Heard dollar machines can fluctuate a little more but usually still within a point or 2.

I believe this is bcuz since pennies are usually set to the lower end of the spectrum the diff manufactures and themes usually will have the same payback options ie 85 87 89 91 etc. But as dollar machines are much less numerous than penny machines & are typically set higher (except CZR) the options across themes and manufacturers are not as uniform so a casino may have 92% 93% 94% 1$ all on the same floor.

What about not necessarily denom (penny vs quarter vs dollar), but just total bet amount? I swear it seems on some of the penny games at one of the main places I play that they set the RTP higher when you get above $5 a spin vs .75 etc., yet it is still technically a penny denom.

There is usually not a way to tell for certain if this is a case on a particular game, but some penny games are configured at a higher payback on the bigger bets.

It makes sense because on a penny game that ranges say .30cents to $10.00 the casino might want to hold 15% on the .30 cent bet (4.5 cents a spin) but holding the same 15% on $10 ($1.50) per spin player would wipe the bigger player out too fast and the casino wants to encourage bigger action so maybe the $10 bet level is set at a 7% hold for example.

It is known that some games are available to be configured this way, but no way to tell for certain.

I would guess though that if you are at say a CZR property you can assume all bet levels are set to the lowest payback regardless of min, max bet, but if you are at a place with good payback on high denoms those would be the most likely to have better return at higher bets on pennies (but certainly not guaranteed)

Would also assume that older games would tend to be same on all bet levels. Newer games with huge spreads on the same denom would be the most likely to have better RTP.

Take this info with a grain of salt, I believe it is correct, but I could be wrong.

This totally jives with everything I know.. but still, ya don't really know, yanno? Which machines have varying paybacks across bet levels would be useful. Like these indian places that payback decently at 93%, do they then pay 95% at .25 bet level? $1 level? This .25 game I've been playing is from .25 to 12.50. Naturally I spin it at 12.50 but uhh i've been booking a loss. I will need to think about it some more and how much of hte payback comes out of the major before I continue down this path.

[DGenBen]

What about not necessarily denom (penny vs quarter vs dollar), but just total bet amount? I swear it seems on some of the penny games at one of the main places I play that they set the RTP higher when you get above $5 a spin vs .75 etc., yet it is still technically a penny denom.

There is usually not a way to tell for certain if this is a case on a particular game, but some penny games are configured at a higher payback on the bigger bets.

It makes sense because on a penny game that ranges say .30cents to $10.00 the casino might want to hold 15% on the .30 cent bet (4.5 cents a spin) but holding the same 15% on $10 ($1.50) per spin player would wipe the bigger player out too fast and the casino wants to encourage bigger action so maybe the $10 bet level is set at a 7% hold for example.

It is known that some games are available to be configured this way, but no way to tell for certain.

I would guess though that if you are at say a CZR property you can assume all bet levels are set to the lowest payback regardless of min, max bet, but if you are at a place with good payback on high denoms those would be the most likely to have better return at higher bets on pennies (but certainly not guaranteed)

Would also assume that older games would tend to be same on all bet levels. Newer games with huge spreads on the same denom would be the most likely to have better RTP.

Take this info with a grain of salt, I believe it is correct, but I could be wrong.

This totally jives with everything I know.. but still, ya don't really know, yanno? Which machines have varying paybacks across bet levels would be useful. Like these indian places that payback decently at 93%, do they then pay 95% at .25 bet level? $1 level? This .25 game I've been playing is from .25 to 12.50. Naturally I spin it at 12.50 but uhh i've been booking a loss. I will need to think about it some more and how much of hte payback comes out of the major before I continue down this path.

The .25 cents to $12.50 sounds like a quarter Ainsworth MHB. From what I understand Ainsworth MHBs are known to have the same RTP on all bet levels.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Things always change for the worst. Usually a mix of reasons. If things couldn't change, there wouldn't me a lowest possible setting. Progressive free games nobody knows enough to be sure just because the meters don't change the game hasn't changed. It's possible the shakes are able to be manipulated seeming the same in every other way. It hasn't changed how I've played them that's for sure.

[jbjb]

The Progressive Free Games are god awfully slooooooowwwwwww!

[DGenBen]

The Progressive Free Games are god awfully slooooooowwwwwww!

So true! Played one in a Caesars on the blue (b4 I knew better) on the $1.60 and didn’t know it but meter had just rolled from 13 to 14 when I started playing it. Stuck on it over an hour plus ended up down $600 on just a $1.60 bet

[mickeycrimm]

Here's some par sheet information from the IGT Texas Tea Pinball game of a few years ago. It shows the different bet levels have different paybacks. The hold percentage listed up top is for the max bet.