Smart Money

[monet]

I'm going to answer the one question without really answering it. First of all, I was winging this too much -- I should have not played the interleague games. They have some advantage, but not as much as the NL games.

Second, I have specific historical reasons to bet the NL only, but I'm not going to spell them out. They're not super secret reasons or anything you couldn't figure out on your own, but 98% of bettors aren't aware of certain numbers, so I'll keep my reasoning to myself. But there was some thinking behind it that made sense to me. I had three or four halfway decent reasons, actually, but they were all based on historical league data going back three or four years.

The main idea was that the totals for the NL were too high to begin the season, based on the new DH. Unders went crazy for both leagues, and that forced the totals down. Well, half a run shift is enormous, and eventually the totals shifted down enough to turn the Overs into an advantage.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner tonight. Good week. And that's it for the project.

The only reason I shared this stuff is that bulk betting is just a contextual decision with no real skill or expertise involved, so I didn't give away any aspects of how I do anything. I just paid attention and was patient enough to wait for the right numbers.

We did a similar thing when the college three-point line was moved back a couple of years ago. We targeted the teams that shot the most threes and previously shot the highest percentage of threes, and we went after the Unders involving those teams for about a month. It worked pretty well. But things like these may not come up for a decade or more. You just sniper them when you think you can.

And yeah, I still know nothing about baseball. Seriously.

We're not worthy.
Thanks for finally participating.

Looks like I called 3 out of 4 in Hockey and should of just took Toronto Puck Line because of the Price.
Carolina Covered.
Blues Covered.
And like I said... the Kings are going to spoil the Oilers.
At first glance I was thinking WILD but after consideration I adjusted before game time.
Many hours before puck drop.
Not like I took my own advice because I was sold on the Marlins.
Sorry to anyone who bet with me.
I need to focus more and do better.
The Lightning could be tired as they won the cup back to back but I still believe that Toronto will blow it like usual.

I have a few tickets in today but too lazy to list them.
I was out all night and had an appointment at 11 am to put a new water softener/conditioner and RO System in the house.
Not only did they rob me but I went out to Chinatown to dry this new dumpling place and got robbed for 90 dollars.
That place sucked.
Never go back.
At least I stiffed the servers.
Feels Good Man.
Bring back Harbor Seafood you bastards!


Early NHL Picks.

Hurricanes Money Line but I hate betting it straight at -120
Lightning Money Line because Toronto plays like shit in the Playoffs.
No Line up on the WILD yet but I'm taking the WILD in some fashion or another.
I'm scared about the Oilers but they always blow the Playoffs too so I'll take the Kings on the Money Line in the first game.
The Oilers are a 2 to 1 favorite in that game so I'm guessing you'll get +150 or so on the Kings.

After looking into the Blues/WILD game I forgot a major problem.
The Blues have owned Minnesota.
Something like 13-2-1 or something crazy like that as I am recalling from memory.
Of course it isn't a lock for the Blues to win but I certainly wouldn't want to bet against them as they seem to own and control the game when they play the WILD.
And it doesn't matter if they are on home ice or away.
Don't believe me.
Look it up.