When Weakness Prevails, Show Them The Meaning of Strength

[Alan Mendelson]

PV I had no idea the 18 yos was such a rare event.

All I thought of was this:

The chance of rolling a yo is 1/18.

The chance of rolling another yo is also 1/18.

The chance of rolling another yo is 1/18.

Meanwhile I'm thinking... roll a 6 shooter.

I’m not necessarily saying you should have bet, because after each roll the odds are still the same 1/18. A new roll is independent of prior rolls. I probably would have bet, only because after a number of yos in a row I would think the fix was in and I would have wanted in!

I’m more thinking the probability of this occurring is off the charts.

GTFOOH, of course, you should have bet after the 6-17th time at some point, any logical smart gambler would have realized it's no longer random and there's money to be made. No one in their right mind would be sitting there all nonchalant after 10 in a row thinking it's just randomly happening. They would have to be totally fucking retarded if they thought that.

Ever play craps? After 3 11s would you expect a 4th?

After ten 11s would you expect an eleventh?

Hindsight is always 20/20.

Besides donkeys bet the horn. It's a bad bet.