Originally Posted by redietz View Post
Two pieces of conflicting, but true, information.

1) Brady's arm, although never that strong, has held up to the point where his arm strength is better than Drew Brees' arm his last two years and better than Peyton Manning's arm his last year. Brady's arm may be better than Eli's arm his last year.

2) Brady's lifetime ATS record is so good that going forward you are getting zero value taking him. You are always getting shorted at least two points.

These are facts. Now what should we do with them? I don't have any brilliant theories. I have to think without Brown and Gronk, you are spitting into the wind betting on Brady going forward. The question is whether you should automatically bet against him or pick your spots.
Just the fact that you believe the point spread is off by 2 points is monster and I have nothing else to say but thank you for the heads up and information.
That's really interesting and great insight.
I have to believe his personal life and being in the news about it constantly has to have some effect.
Not so much about being in the news but the fact that they are having issues has to bother him mentally.
And let us not forget that he took a huge cut in pay from 37 Million to 15 Million as he could of retired and been in the booth.
I mean the money isn't going anywhere but he has to think like "I don't need this shit... I can get paid more than double by just analyzing this game on TV" without the physical and mental abuse.