Dan Druff's 2022-2023 NCAA Football picks

[Dan Druff]

Since I'm batting .900 (!!) in my first 21 NFL picks, time to take a shot with NCAAF.

First pick below. More coming soon.

I'll start with some chalk.

Florida -10.5 vs Missouri


I know, complex stuff. The home -11 favorite. Starting in 20 min.

[Dan Druff]

Here's a few more:

Navy +5.5 vs Tulsa
Iowa State +1 vs Kansas State (Iowa moneyline ok)
South Carolina +175 at Kentucky (+4.5 ok)

And two Washington related totals:

USC vs Washington State - Under 64.5 (63.5 ok)
Arizona State vs Washington - Under 56 (55.5 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Gonna go full degen mode and fire a few more.

Hopefully I don't go 0-9 or something. That would be embarrassing. At least Florida is up 10-0 to start.

Akron +10 at Ohio
Vanderbilt +17 vs Ole Miss
Stanford +170 vs Oregon State (+4.5 ok)

[redietz]

Gonna go full degen mode and fire a few more.

Hopefully I don't go 0-9 or something. That would be embarrassing. At least Florida is up 10-0 to start.

Akron +10 at Ohio
Vanderbilt +17 vs Ole Miss
Stanford +170 vs Oregon State (+4.5 ok)

Whole different animal, college football. Completely different sport. As different from the NFL as NASCAR is from hurling.

I got tortured with East Carolina today but won with TTech (+10 1/2 at the end) and second half on Okie State. Ahead 1/2 a unit on the day. Have BYU teased currently, along with Oregon in a separate teaser. We'll see how they go.

I don't think Stanford will beat Oregon State.

[redietz]

Here's a quick tale of contest woe. Northbet has a weekly college contest. You have to pick the top 15 teams or thereabouts ATS. Not my thing. I don't take many top 10-type games, and I hate choosing 40-point lines, even for a free contest. Makes me squint too hard.

Anyway, I'm 3-6 ATS after the first nine games, and three of the six losses are by half a point. LOL. That's rough. Of course, if you're actually shopping, you're not 3-6.

[monet]

4-3-1 is still a pretty good day for degening.

[redietz]

4-3-1 is still a pretty good day for degening.

Ummmmm....

Beavermania running wild.

The backup QB played a real nice game for Oregon State. The Beaver defensive line didn't play as well as I thought they might.

[redietz]

Here's a quick tale of contest woe. Northbet has a weekly college contest. You have to pick the top 15 teams or thereabouts ATS. Not my thing. I don't take many top 10-type games, and I hate choosing 40-point lines, even for a free contest. Makes me squint too hard.

Anyway, I'm 3-6 ATS after the first nine games, and three of the six losses are by half a point. LOL. That's rough. Of course, if you're actually shopping, you're not 3-6.

I have to mention this as a bad beats kind of record for one day. In this damned contest, I rallied to go 7-7 ATS. Three losses by half a point and another by 1 1/2 points. That's gotta be some kind of negative record for one day.

[Dan Druff]

Unbelievable beat on that Stanford game. Up 27-22 with 57 secs left, and Oregon State has to make 76 yards. They get 9 and 11 on two plays, and then hit a 56 yard Hail Mary with 18s left.

Just brutal.

That was the difference between a winning 4-4-1 day (+1.25 units) and a losing 3-5-1 day (-1.45 units), since this was a +170.

[monet]

That was the difference between a winning 4-4-1 day (+1.25 units) and a losing 3-5-1 day (-1.45 units), since this was a +170.

Guess I counted wrong lol.
Sorry.

[redietz]

That was the difference between a winning 4-4-1 day (+1.25 units) and a losing 3-5-1 day (-1.45 units), since this was a +170.

Guess I counted wrong lol.
Sorry.

I almost teased the Beavers. Then decided no backup QBs making road debuts, no matter if Stanford looked like hell pretty much every game. So that 45-yard FG with a minute left would have been a tough teaser L.

I have to go back over that play. I can't fault the safeties at first glance, but maybe they needed a full-on prevent there with guys sitting back at the goal line. That's a relatively experienced secondary for Stanford, however. Everybody did what they were supposed to do on that play, given the defense.

The Pac 12 this year is a cut above what it's been the last five/six years, if you look at it top to bottom.

I will say this -- Dan's picking-on-the-backup-QBs is probably going to work better in this era of transfer-itis, which really just started this season. It's not a terrible idea, especially when these guys make road game starts in loud stadiums (in other words, Sun Belt not a great angle). The drop-off to backup QB is huge. Look at NC State. Those guys are done if the QB is hurt. Va Tech is done if the QB is hurt. Big drop offs. Hard to quantify it.

[kewlJ]

I also got burned by that horrible play. I had Stanford +4.5 for 1 unit and Stanford to win for 1/2 unit, so that play turned what should have been a 2 unit win into about a half unit win and that was the difference between what should have been a slightly winning day and a slightly losing day.

The safety had one job.....not to let the receiver get behind him.....to always stay between the receiver and the endzone. He had no business trying to knock the ball away. That was the defensive backs job. If the safety had done what he was supposed to he would have tackled the guy even after the miraculous catch. And Oregon State would have been scrambling to get another play off before time expired.

Why hasn't Coach David Shaw lost his job? He had winning seasons back when he had Andrew Luck and then McCafferty, .but now has lost 10 straight conference games. The only games they can win are against teams like Colgate.

[Dan Druff]

Trying to shake off my 3-5-1 start to NCAA, and that Hail Mary which fucked my Stanford ML bet (and made my day a loser).

Here are two games I like tomorrow:

Utah -3.5 -108 vs USC
Florida State +170 vs. Clemson

[Dan Druff]

Also:

There seems to be skepticism that Kansas can win without Jalon Daniels.

This looks like a trap line though. All the ploppies thinking they're being clever getting points with the "better" team, but the casinos keep moving the line to make Oklahoma more of a favorite. I was already looking at this one, and now I'm going to go with Oklahoma for exactly that reason.

Oklahoma -9 -105 vs Kansas


Also:

Fresno State vs San Jose State - Under 47

[Dan Druff]

Let's throw another Utah-related game out there:

Colorado State vs Utah State - Under 46

[redietz]

Let's throw another Utah-related game out there:

Colorado State vs Utah State - Under 46

That was a good Utah State/Colorado State Under, Dan. Damn, I overlooked it. Last game, Colorado State scored two defensive TDs and not much else happened. An Under this week made sense. My normal modus operandi would be to tease the Under with an open spot.

I had a good day. Didn't lose anything but blew money hedging two games at halftime. Hedging, as my girlfriend says, is for weenies.

[redietz]

Also:

There seems to be skepticism that Kansas can win without Jalon Daniels.

This looks like a trap line though. All the ploppies thinking they're being clever getting points with the "better" team, but the casinos keep moving the line to make Oklahoma more of a favorite. I was already looking at this one, and now I'm going to go with Oklahoma for exactly that reason.

Oklahoma -9 -105 vs Kansas


Also:

Fresno State vs San Jose State - Under 47

I have never seen anything quite like the Oklahoma game. They had 487 yards at halftime and were up by just 14. That was 487 yards at halftime. I don't believe, in 45 years, that I have witnessed 487 yards in a half by one team. That's sick.

[Dan Druff]

Yeah, that Oklahoma game was weird.

3-2 day. Florida State had a good late run at it, but ran out of time. The 2-point conversion attempt by Utah State unfortunately guaranteed that my -3.5 couldn't hit.

Both unders easily won.

[redietz]

Yeah, that Oklahoma game was weird.

3-2 day. Florida State had a good late run at it, but ran out of time. The 2-point conversion attempt by Utah State unfortunately guaranteed that my -3.5 couldn't hit.

Both unders easily won.

That was also a real good Under on Fresno/San Jose. Without the QB, Fresno has to play completely differently to just stay in games. San Jose State front seven is excellent, as witnessed by when they stepped up in class early versus Auburn.

Real nice job on the totals.

I suspect with your picking on the key injuries, and the lack of depth with transfer-itis, the totals may be the way to go. Those were real solid. I say this because it appears as if the lines are adjusted sufficiently for the sides, but I'm not sure any totals line could compensate for the lack of a Haener for Fresno or the NC State QB. Without those guys, the teams have had to completely change their offensive personalities. Fresno would have been favored with their QB, possibly, and NCState too. But the totals weren't adjusted enough.

[Dan Druff]

So far I'm 6-7-1, down 0.68 units. Not the greatest start, but I had a few close ones which could have gone either way.

Today has a few NCAAF games. I have one pick:

UAB +103 at Western Kentucky (+1.5 -110 ok)


And here's some Saturday NCAAF picks for you:

Kansas State +145 at TCU (+3.5 ok)
Louisville -2.5 vs Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt +14 -105 at Missouri
LSU -2.5 vs Ole Miss
Bowling Green +205 at Central Michigan (+6.5 ok)
UL Monroe +210 at Army (+6.5 ok)
Baylor -10 vs Kansas