Dan Druff's 2022-23 NFL picks

[redietz]

And I have you half a game better than you list.

BetANy knocked you back, eh?

One way to muddy the waters, obviously, is to ... oh hell, if I ever see you in person, I will pass it along.

I have been banned on occasion, then months or a year later asked to re-engage. Experienced management eventually realizes that piggybacking beats banning.

But some people have no tolerance for futures winners. Seriously. I have been scaled back in the last five years to the point of ridiculousness at some places. And the amounts haven't been staggering. If these were straight plays winning the same amounts, there'd be little eye-batting. But because they are out-of-the-blue long shots, like this year's Indians (errr, Guardians), I get grief.

[Dan Druff]

I can't get used to calling them the Guardians. I also still refer to the "Commanders" (lol) as the Redskins.

Yes, I've had my props cut on all online books a long time ago. But to get restricted for straight betting spreads/moneylines/totals on mainstream games is just taking risk aversion to a new level.

[Dan Druff]

Cleveland +156 at Miami (+3.5 ok)
Pittsburgh -102 vs New Orleans

[Dan Druff]

Detroit at Chicago - Over 48.5
Chargers at San Francisco - Under 45 -107

Monday pick:
Philadelphia vs Washington - Under 43.5

[Dan Druff]

Arizona at Rams - Under 39.5 (possible both starting QBs will be out!)
Pittsburgh vs New Orleans - Under 39.5

[Dan Druff]

4-2 day. Should have won the Arizona under. Was 3-3 late in the 2nd (!!). Lost in the final 14 seconds when the Rams made a junk TD, down 17-10. A fumble was responsible for one of the late TDs in the 1st half.

Lost the Cleveland pick pretty big, to where the dog spread also would've lost by a lot.

Other four won, though the Chargers under was looking not-so-great at halftime. Added another +1.73 units to my record.

Now 35-12-1, +24.42 units

[Dan Druff]

Only have this one for you guys right now:

Pittsburgh +170 vs Cincinnati (+4 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Adding:

Dallas -2 at Minnesota
NY Giants vs Detroit - Under 44.5 -105
Denver vs Las Vegas - Under 41.5

[Dan Druff]

Went 2-2 last week, winning Dallas game and Denver under. Now 37-14-1, +24.24 units

Today:

Jacksonville vs Baltimore - Under 43

I really don't see much else that I like today in NFL.

[redietz]

There's no law that says you have to like anything. Kudos to a fantastic NFL season.

Meanwhile, it behooves me as an honest reporter to mention that the inimitable Rob Singer is on an NFL tear, as can be evidenced over at GamblingForums, where's he locked into taking five NFL sides per week. His record has entered Dan's rarified air, believe it or not.

On a side note (not that I do much in the NFL), Dan and I are at slight loggerheads on the JVille game, although not directly. I teased the Over 36. We'll see how it goes. I'm a sucker for those Over 36 teasers.

In various contests, I am spinning my wheels trying to pick winners for Denver at Carolina and Cincinnati at Tennessee. For the first time this season, I more or less gave up and used different lineups. I used two road teams in two contests and two home teams in the other. I have no blessed idea. I actually hope it's one home, one road.

[dannyj]

Red, how much do you have to lay to buy the total down to 36?

[redietz]

Red, how much do you have to lay to buy the total down to 36?

It's a teaser, Danny. Teaser odds vary a lot by sportsbook. There are six, six-and-a-half, and seven point teasers. You need two teams to win with the extra points to win the wager.

I have three places where I lay -130 for the seven point NFL teasers, which cost more than college teasers.

The majority of my teasing is with totals. For decades, Las Vegas sports books did not allow teasers for totals. There were reasons for that.

Today, I closed a Vols -7 from last night versus Vanderbilt with the Ravens/JVille Over 36. Then I messed up by hedging a third of the bet on Under 21 1/2 the second half. On the other hand, I had a Titans +9 teaser going today, and I hedged a third of the bet with Bengals Pick second half and won the hedge and the teaser.

[dannyj]

Red, how much do you have to lay to buy the total down to 36?

It's a teaser, Danny. Teaser odds vary a lot by sportsbook. There are six, six-and-a-half, and seven point teasers. You need two teams to win with the extra points to win the wager.

I understand.

I thought you were just buying the number down and calling it a teaser.
Once I kidded you about a teaser you played, (due to your disdain for parlays) and you said a teaser is not a parlay. But if you need two teams to win isn't that a parlay?
Not trying to one up you or anything. Probably just semantics.

[redietz]

Red, how much do you have to lay to buy the total down to 36?

It's a teaser, Danny. Teaser odds vary a lot by sportsbook. There are six, six-and-a-half, and seven point teasers. You need two teams to win with the extra points to win the wager.

I understand.

I thought you were just buying the number down and calling it a teaser.
Once I kidded you about a teaser you played, (due to your disdain for parlays) and you said a teaser is not a parlay. But if you need two teams to win isn't that a parlay?
Not trying to one up you or anything. Probably just semantics.

I do think playing parlays is terrible unless you can open them in perpetuity. The problem with playing teasers and parlays is that unless you can open them in perpetuity, you can't necessarily take advantage of when a particular place has the best number, so you risk playing non-optimal numbers, which will catch up to you. Previously, I had three places that allowed open teasers in perpetuity. This season, one of those has reduced your time to fill it up to seven days. A second has reduced it to 30 days. The third still allows open in perpetuity, and in fact I have open teasers that date back to last year there. But the bottom line is that flexibility to use teasers has quickly gotten worse. This hints that teasers, in specific instances, may have been not the most profitable option for sports books.

Now people ask me why I've used so many teasers this season in the NFL. I'll use this as a trivia test. If you think about this season, as opposed to other seasons, for a minute or two, you can probably figure out why it MIGHT be smart idea to use some NFL teasers in 2022.

I will present the unabashed answer on Tuesday to give folks a day or so to mull it over. There is a specific logical reason, actually mathematical in nature, why this season suggests an emphasis on teasers might be a good idea. Mickey probably can figure it out after I stated things this way.

It's one of those things that after I tell you, you'll say, "Oh, that's obvious." But the fact is nobody is saying it, and you have to look at things in a certain way to see what's right in front of you.

[Dan Druff]

Finally betting a Thursday game again.

New England +167 vs Buffalo (+3.5 ok)

[redietz]

Finally betting a Thursday game again.

New England +167 vs Buffalo (+3.5 ok)

Don't feel bad. I teased the Over 36 that I'm a sucker for. Still hard to believe I lost that. Caught the number at exactly the right time, too, back when the weather reports were saying a chance of 40 mph gusts. No wind at all, really.

That was one ugly Patriot offensive performance. I give the NE RB credit -- he's the closest thing to a current Walter Payton -- he's busting it every play. But he did drop two balls.

This isn't news to anyone, but Pats need a QB and two more wideouts. Mac Jones is not the answer to any question. He's smart and he's tough but he'll make a fine backup.

[kewlJ]

Don't feel bad. I teased the Over 36 that I'm a sucker for. Still hard to believe I lost that.

Well my night was worse than that. I loved the under 43.5 when I looked earlier in the week. I thought the Patriots would try to shorten the game by taking time off. Then last night, I checked the weather which said windy conditions with gusts up to 35 mph. I sort of thought both teams would run the ball and take time off. So I made a bigger wager than usual.

Well I don't know what happened to the wind. I saw no sign of it. By the second half I like the way the game was going. After the game when I didn't get paid, I checked the log of my bets and apparently, I bet the over. I have done this before, but it was with tickets at a brick and mortar sportsbook that I didn't check. This was the first time online. Got me thinking if it was more or less likely to make this kind of mistake when betting online.

[monet]

Well my night was worse than that. I loved the under 43.5 when I looked earlier in the week. I thought the Patriots would try to shorten the game by taking time off. Then last night, I checked the weather which said windy conditions with gusts up to 35 mph. I sort of thought both teams would run the ball and take time off. So I made a bigger wager than usual.

Well I don't know what happened to the wind. I saw no sign of it. By the second half I like the way the game was going. After the game when I didn't get paid, I checked the log of my bets and apparently, I bet the over. I have done this before, but it was with tickets at a brick and mortar sportsbook that I didn't check. This was the first time online. Got me thinking if it was more or less likely to make this kind of mistake when betting online.

After all that professional bullshit you have been typing for the last 5 years or so, that I have read, you can go and Fuck Off with this ploppie bullshit you are trying to make us believe in now.
Didn't check your tickets?
Clicked the wrong bet?
Made this mistake multiple times over the years?
FUCK OFF!

You can count two tables without a hitch but can't figure out how to bet the over/under in the book?
FUCK YOU!

[Dan Druff]

My last win was November 20. Of course, I've only made 2 picks since then, which both lost, so I still have a great record for the season.

New England was outplayed big time. Knew by the 2nd quarter that it wasn't winning, even though they weren't way behind at the time.

Now 37-16-1, +22.24 units

[Dan Druff]

NY Giants vs Washington - Under 40.5
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers - Under 49.5
Las Vegas -2.5 vs LA Chargers