Dan Druff's 2022-23 NFL picks

[redietz]

Red, how much do you have to lay to buy the total down to 36?

It's a teaser, Danny. Teaser odds vary a lot by sportsbook. There are six, six-and-a-half, and seven point teasers. You need two teams to win with the extra points to win the wager.

I understand.

I thought you were just buying the number down and calling it a teaser.
Once I kidded you about a teaser you played, (due to your disdain for parlays) and you said a teaser is not a parlay. But if you need two teams to win isn't that a parlay?
Not trying to one up you or anything. Probably just semantics.

I do think playing parlays is terrible unless you can open them in perpetuity. The problem with playing teasers and parlays is that unless you can open them in perpetuity, you can't necessarily take advantage of when a particular place has the best number, so you risk playing non-optimal numbers, which will catch up to you. Previously, I had three places that allowed open teasers in perpetuity. This season, one of those has reduced your time to fill it up to seven days. A second has reduced it to 30 days. The third still allows open in perpetuity, and in fact I have open teasers that date back to last year there. But the bottom line is that flexibility to use teasers has quickly gotten worse. This hints that teasers, in specific instances, may have been not the most profitable option for sports books.

Now people ask me why I've used so many teasers this season in the NFL. I'll use this as a trivia test. If you think about this season, as opposed to other seasons, for a minute or two, you can probably figure out why it MIGHT be smart idea to use some NFL teasers in 2022.

I will present the unabashed answer on Tuesday to give folks a day or so to mull it over. There is a specific logical reason, actually mathematical in nature, why this season suggests an emphasis on teasers might be a good idea. Mickey probably can figure it out after I stated things this way.

It's one of those things that after I tell you, you'll say, "Oh, that's obvious." But the fact is nobody is saying it, and you have to look at things in a certain way to see what's right in front of you.