IN a games like video poker and keno it's easy to figure expected value. Keno is the easiest to figure because the probabilities are fixed.

The equation is probability times payoff. Two-spot is easy example

total combinations 80 X 79/2 X 1 = 3,160

combinations that make the two spot 20 X 19/2 X 1 = 190

3160/190 = 16.63158

If the two-spot pays 12 for 1:

15/16.63158 = 90.19%

So the EV for the player is 90.19%

The EV for the house is 109.81%

Keno is easy to figure because it's easy to calculate the probabilites against the payoffs. With the typical slot machine the public generally doesn't know exactly what the payback is. Except we know what the parameters are, somewhere between 75% and 100%.

But every line pay that can be hit has a definite probability. Mixed Bars might be 1 in 20, Single Bars 1 in 50, etc. The public generally doesn't know those probabilities but there is a definite EV there.

It's the same with sportsbetting. Against a -110 line you have to win 52.4% to break even. So if you are looking to turn a profit then you must limit your bets to only those side you think have a greater than 52.4% chance of covering.

Probability theory definitely comes into play here. You think it's probable that team A has a greater than 52.4% chance of covering. Exactly what that probability is....is hard to quantify. But it's definitely there. Expected Value is definitely there.

2 hours before game time the line is sitting on 7. But an hour before game the Salt Lake City wood choppers show up and hammer the favorite as they always do. The line moves to 7.5, then 8, then 8.5. It reaches 9 about 20 minutes before game.

I go up and take the dog +9. On a typical game I might not know exactly what the EV is but I know it's a hell of a lot better than the EV of those that took the dog at +7.

I did quite well with this method when I was there. And it don't matter what the hell redietz thinks about it.