Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
Smoke put up some Shack stats that showed NFL away dogs covered 54% over the last 30 years. I think that is significant and can't be called a trend.
Mickey, I have found this stat very interesting since I saw it a year or so ago. Actually the number I remember seeing involving Shack was away dogs of 4 points or less. This is only significant because the second most common margin of victory in the NFL is 3 points, so getting 3, 3.5, 4 points would all cover that margin. Makes me wonder if you only looked at the 3, 3.5, 4 spreads if that win percentages might not tick up a point or two to 55-56%?
This all makes common sense when you think about it because oddsmakers assign 3 points as a home field advantage, so for an underdog of 4 points or less, they are basically saying the two teamsare evenly matched. I will take the points in a toss up scenario.
But then this gets into just what is the home field advantage? Unlike baseball where field are different sizes and demensions, football is all the same 100 yards by 53 yards wide field. So fans are yelling and rooting against you rather than for you. Unlike a sport like basketball, the fans aren't really right on top of you, so I just don't know why it matters as much as it seems to. I think a lot of it is psychological. There is the aspect of home cooked meal and sleeping in your own bed, rather than a hotel, but players that play for a living (and even college players) should be so used to that, that it isn't an issue. I am not arguing the stats. Just find it odd that home field seems to matter as much as it does in football.
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