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doing nothing other than betting NFL away underdogs - an amateur would surely outperform many of those who call themselves pros
tweaking it as I have done, and instead betting only on away underdogs who get 4 points or fewer and the outperformance of so called pros is large
I've posted this before - anyway - I've tracked the last 4 regular seasons of the above and got 159-117 - 57.6% winners - pushes not considered - 10% r.o.i.
I will continue tracking every upcoming season and posting the seasonal and combined results
all of this can be verified by anybody who wants to do the work at covers.com
what's also very interesting - to me anyway - is that although the home fave is loved and over bet against the spread -
it is just the opposite on the money line - at least with extreme faves - usually at home - the underdog is over bet
that is because there is a favorite/longshot bias - bettors greatly prefer big payout to small payouts
this has been well documented in horse racing - not so much in other sports - but I believe it is a for sure thing - at least when it comes to extreme faves and dogs
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