Video poker this or that

[Don Perignom]

Which game would you play? Fictionalized scenario from real life.

Triple Play 25c ($3.75 bet):

9/7 TDB (99.58%)
-or-
9/5 JoB (98.45%) with progressive royal, 0.33% meter each line (total 1%)

Slot card = 2% cash. This includes point value plus estimated mailers discounted for inconvenience.

Which would you play, assuming JoB at reset ($1000 jackpot on each line)?

Supplemental question if you answered TDB. At what jackpot levels would you switch over to the JoB?

[DGenBen]

If I was planning to play for a long time, I would play JOB since the return would eventually exceed TDB due to the meter. Also assuming if it’s a linked bank for the Royal others playing after I begin to play would also drive up the meter and the return.

[Don Perignom]

Also assuming if it’s a linked bank for the Royal others playing after I begin to play would also drive up the meter and the return.

Yes, it's linked.

The problem I see with other players is they're more active at higher jackpots. Jackpots remain low for long periods of time, whereas high jackpots are snapped off quickly.

The unbalanced competition takes away some of my value from the 1% meter move. A more obvious example is the single-line 8/5 BP 3-way progressive at D Las Vegas. The 5-K quad jackpot moves up slowly from $31.25, but accelerates higher up as the hustlers jump in. If you just sit there and play through for hours, you won't get full value from the meter rise, imo.

For the JoB game in my example, I think the 1% meter needs to be discounted. But to what extent? I'm thinking maybe two-thirds of the 1%.

So we have a 98.45% base game with a 0.67% effective meter. If for example I find the average jackpot at $1150, then my game EV would be 98.75 + 0.67 = 99.42.

Hope that makes sense. It's probably not linear though. If the average jackpot is $2000 and every seat is taken, then maybe I have full meter value because competition is maxed out and cannot increase.

[jbjb]

Use the Singer System!

[Don Perignom]

Use the Singer System!

Any money I win will go toward the down payment on a Newell.

[AxelWolf]

Also assuming if it’s a linked bank for the Royal others playing after I begin to play would also drive up the meter and the return.

Yes, it's linked.

The problem I see with other players is they're more active at higher jackpots. Jackpots remain low for long periods of time, whereas high jackpots are snapped off quickly.

The unbalanced competition takes away some of my value from the 1% meter move. A more obvious example is the single-line 8/5 BP 3-way progressive at D Las Vegas. The 5-K quad jackpot moves up slowly from $31.25, but accelerates higher up as the hustlers jump in. If you just sit there and play through for hours, you won't get full value from the meter rise, imo.

For the JoB game in my example, I think the 1% meter needs to be discounted. But to what extent? I'm thinking maybe two-thirds of the 1%.

So we have a 98.45% base game with a 0.67% effective meter. If for example I find the average jackpot at $1150, then my game EV would be 98.75 + 0.67 = 99.42.

Hope that makes sense. It's probably not linear though. If the average jackpot is $2000 and every seat is taken, then maybe I have full meter value because competition is maxed out and cannot increase.

How does one calculate a shared progressive meter movement value? For the most part, you are not getting the full value since other's are attracted to the higher numbers and will jump in during higher numbers, play faster, and go more aggressive for those specific progressive hands. My only suggestion is that you are not the one playing during the low numbers.

[smurgerburger]

Ignoring any real world issue of seat availability or variance you'd just play whichever has the higher EV per hand at that time, which depends on current jackpot levels but not on how many people you are competing with. You add the meter directly to the EV.

The effect of competition is not to lower the per hand EV but to shorten the duration in terms of total hands (and thus the total value) of any +EV opportunity (assuming they flock to higher meters, if they just play at random it accelerates the whole cycle and has no effect on total EV).

That's my first impression anyway. Maybe I'm missing something.

[DGenBen]

I should probably add that real world in a situation like this what I would actually do since the EV is so close is that if I was in a gambling mood & / or had plenty of money on me I would play TDB

If I was in a conservative mood & / or had limited funds on me, I would play JOB

But thats just me………

[mickeycrimm]

When average royal is $1525 on 9/5 the game is 99.59% plus meter speed.