Originally Posted by OppsIdidItAgain View Post
V, the above analysis is quite sound, on all points.

Say, even had old Pooey properly and fully interpreted the nature of the math question, he ended by throwing in the condition that the number of occurrences of each ticket was to be factored in, by averaging out all of the occurrences. Then the relatively very few larger number of occurrences would become quite meaningless. As well, what to do with the unknown tickets, which weren't drawn? Ie, how many tickets must have been in the drum to account for a few, some, or many, of them not having been drawn? A lot. Right? Obviously, Pooey didn't even bother to fully calculate things in his example. He must have just hoped that I couldn't decipher it. Fooled him. Right? Furthermore, where it possible to simulate the thing, old AIQ would've already done it. But, the problem with thus proceeding to reverse engineer something is that there are often many different types and degrees of scenarios that could lead to the same, or different, outcomes. If, say, character profiling of serial murderers were so simple, then all of that would have long since ceased. On the other hand, every one's a self-professed expert, like you, but, in the end, it's still all a bunch of bull garbage. Mostly, people who never figured out even themselves. The best FBI agents, by directly questioning a suspect, can detect a lie only about 53%, or 54%, of the time.

So, now's YOUR chance to try to prove me wrong, on anything that I wrote. Big boy up, or, slink away, yet again. But this time it's not a matter of submitting other than my post above. Ingest another load of pot to try to truly defend yourself for once. Shouldn't be too very hard against an attic dweller like me. Ha.

What if you're the somewhat functionally illiterate brain-damaged nutjob in a seemingly endless online tiff with Tasha, Singer et al, and me?
You're an idiot. THe sim part isn't hard, it would just take an hour or 2. A loop, a little logic and an array. Print this out into a huge list of results, then grep through it for results to count the number equal to observation. The more equal results the more likely. Just do enough samples and the results will be accurate. When I need to know the results to this, I will write the code or use smurger/tableplays method.

I'll write the fucking thing if you agree to never post here again and we can get Druff to agree to enforce it.