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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #981
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    questions about bonus grinding.

    With my questions I am assuming that straight betting without bonuses does not have the EV to make it worth it without being the next level of serious. So I am going to narrow my questions to bonus rolling over via offshore sites.
    Maybe Axel can reply to this. He seems to be our expert resident pro sports-bettor.

    1) Is SBR still the place to go to find out if books operate honestly?
    2) Do bonuses mostly appear during football season? (Is bonus grinding a thing year around for a person moderately motivated)
    3) How often are people limited on offshore books? Is the concept of cover plays (or whatever they're called) a thing?

    My rant on limting .. vv

    IMO it seems it is either limiting or making lines really sharp as there is no in between. What these goofball bettors on twitter seem to believe is that books shouldn't be allowed to limit. Which is very self-serving and doesn't really answer how books would not just lose to too many beards. If books could enforce one person per bettor then sure no lmiting seems reasonable but that isn't happening.

    If Redietz wants to give his feedback it would be welcome. Maybe we can figure out the EV of sports-picking tournaments vs bonus grinding.

    No offense to Redietz but I'm really not interested in handicapping because I'm not a sports nerd. I just glaze over when presented with analysis/opinions. It is like any sort of nerdom. If you're not into that world then it is just boring as fuck.
    1) Interesting you asked, I had been using them on and off them for years. I attempted to get information on a few newer sports books I was interested in over the last year or so.

    My answer is... NO!!, Not really, they "sold out". From my understanding, they are now only dealing with government-regulated sports books as an "affiliate" site. I suspect they sold out to a company that promotes the Big Boys like Draft Kings. They used to help solve payment issues with offshore books, but not anymore. There's now strict moderation. Long-time posters have been censored and banned. It's like Trip Advisor... if you say anything negative about a destination the don't like it and ir allow it. Not sure exactly how strict SBR is. You can see some older information on offshore books, but It doesn't seem to be search-friendly.

    2)Football season seems to bring out bigger, better, and more frequent offers, but it is actually a year-round gig. I get calls 2 times a week with bonus offers. Emails daylily. I don't even have accounts at all the solid places.

    3) I have only ever been banned from a few regulated books. I really don't know how often the offshore joints ban sharp bettors. I know a few guys who do well using sharp bets, bonuses, and boosts who consistently make money, however, I assume they have so many accounts going and B&B casino available that offsetting and hedging +EV opportunities come up that give the appearance of donkey betting.

    Some places will slow down your bonus eligibility for a while if you're winning and cashing out. They may ask you to deposit equivalent to your last cash out and only anything above that is eligible for a bonus. Wait a while and eventually, they disregard that. I also have a few tricks up my sleeves to get them to wave that. There's a good chance I might get tagged this season since I ramped up.

    My max bet has been 3k (I have to get authorized for anything over 1k) They adjusted the line first as well, but I didn't care, I needed the bet. I try not to let my accounts get too high if possible, I'll give up some vig in an attempt to avoid that, but you can't control it perfectly.

    4) I'm certainly no sports betting odds or math expert. I quickly look at something and see its value and potential, I figure out how one can best exploit the situation I can see the bigger potential and big picture. I know what needs to be done, and how to do it. I haven't any doubt there are guys that have it figured out fairly well but I bet they are missing some of the potential.

    However, I'm not very good at finding value bets, and I'm not good at knowing stuff like... x number of legs on a parlay will get you closest to your EV if you have -150 or + this or that, therefore you will achieve exactly 75% of the free bet value. Intuitively I know this stuff and have a good educated guess. knowing that stuff is important, and knowing you don't know something... IS the most important because, I know what I need to know and figure out, and who knows what the fuck they are doing.

    There are a few people I have met on the forums who know all the odds, math, stats, and value bets like some Rainman-like ability shit. I'm absolutely amazed at what and how often and quickly they find incredible value bets on crazy complicated stuff. Holy fuck, that's free money!!

    Me, I'm thinking... but if you just add in XYZ, it's worth so much more.

    In closing, Red is so very wrong about the huge potential of pure +EV sports value betting(not even bonus whoring) and this isn't based on what I think I see firsthand, I have been involved. And I only know a few of the people doing it and making a good living. There's no doubt some unknown big boys crushing it.

    I am but a barracouta in an ocean filled with great white sharks.
    Last edited by AxelWolf; 09-09-2023 at 07:26 PM.

  2. #982
    Our mutual late friend Rick Radner was very good at value betting. I sat in a car with him from LV to Phx. as he chatted almost non-stop about that subject along with the math surrounding how & why he was making specific bets, for nearly 4 hours. Interesting as hell and it made the trip race by, but you have to be a certain level of dedicated to really understand that stuff and make a bundle of money from it.

    I myself--a very limited sports bettor--have made good money just with the bonus money offers from the BetMGM's, DraftKings, etc. the past few years, and I barely know what I'm doing. For those who make a living with stuff like this, I can see the high potential.

  3. #983
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Our mutual late friend Rick Radner was very good at value betting. I sat in a car with him from LV to Phx. as he chatted almost non-stop about that subject along with the math surrounding how & why he was making specific bets, for nearly 4 hours. Interesting as hell and it made the trip race by, but you have to be a certain level of dedicated to really understand that stuff and make a bundle of money from it.

    I myself--a very limited sports bettor--have made good money just with the bonus money offers from the BetMGM's, DraftKings, etc. the past few years, and I barely know what I'm doing. For those who make a living with stuff like this, I can see the high potential.
    I could go on for 2 hours about Richard Radner AKA Jai-Alai. I'm responsible for him staying in Las Vegas and learning Machine AP. One of my first big mistakes in advantage play. Heck, I was still working at the time and only Advantage Playing after and before work when I met him. Richard Radner was one of the smartest idiots I ever knew. Greedy, but giving. Honest at times, dishonest at times, loyal at times, disloyal at times, Crazy at times normal at times.

    A Very interesting guy who you hated to like, but you couldn't help yourself. I distanced any AP business with him for the most part(Many people didn't, and some got screwed hard)but I couldn't hate the guy and I had multiple reasons that I should have.

  4. #984
    I haven't had time to see how the... first 2 weeks take the points system, has panned out so far. Regardless, I'm thinking about next week's bets, In my experience the lines generally move against the favorites due to the public's love for them therefore it's best to bet the dogs as late as possible. Again, In general. Would anyone disagree?

  5. #985
    If SBR is not a thing anymore has a replacement come into existence? It was a neat site but it would take labor to keep going and doing what they did. There should be ok $$ in the affiliate marketing but I wouldn't know. What a shame. Such a useful AND needed site.

  6. #986
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I haven't had time to see how the... first 2 weeks take the points system, has panned out so far.
    9-6 so far with one game remaining. The Sunday night game was a real beauty. Giants +3.5, which was not only a play by this first two weeks underdog system, but also a play by the home team +3.5 system I am using, so it was a double play for me. Giants lost 40-0 , But Druff's picks are 3-0 so far, so that helps.

  7. #987
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    If SBR is not a thing anymore has a replacement come into existence? It was a neat site but it would take labor to keep going and doing what they did. There should be ok $$ in the affiliate marketing but I wouldn't know. What a shame. Such a useful AND needed site.
    Probably, but I haven't looked. I do my own research using multiple different sources I don't have a go-to place for sports sites.

  8. #988
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I haven't had time to see how the... first 2 weeks take the points system, has panned out so far.
    9-6 so far with one game remaining. The Sunday night game was a real beauty. Giants +3.5, which was not only a play by this first two weeks underdog system, but also a play by the home team +3.5 system I am using, so it was a double play for me. Giants lost 40-0 , But Druff's picks are 3-0 so far, so that helps.
    Thanks. I didn't see Dan's 2 other picks.

  9. #989
    Another angle you may want to consider if you are just looking to churn through a lot of plays to get through the bonus play-through requirement is betting unders on college football right now. There has been a lot of chatter on a couple forums about the new rules (running clock), which supposedly results in 5-6 fewer plays and should translate to lower scores. Redietz posted that for week 1 the overs and under were almost evenly split among all college games. But I have refined my plays down to only games that consist of two teams from power conferences. I didn't want to have top teams playing some shit team from a lesser conference that ran up a score of 70-14.

    So by refining it to 2 power conference teams, I went 11-8 last week and 14-8 this week betting the unders. This weeks results were very likely skewed a bit in my favor by rainy weather all up and down the east coast. I think this angle may be good for another week or two until lines are adjusted down further to compensate for the fewer number of plays each game. Wouldn't surprise me if the books don't over-compensate and there could be a couple good weeks betting over. But it would probably be pretty hard to pin-point just exactly when that over-compendsation occurs. So for now, I am just going to play another week of unders, maybe 2 weeks.

    So you might want to look into that.

  10. #990
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Our mutual late friend Rick Radner was very good at value betting. I sat in a car with him from LV to Phx. as he chatted almost non-stop about that subject along with the math surrounding how & why he was making specific bets, for nearly 4 hours. Interesting as hell and it made the trip race by, but you have to be a certain level of dedicated to really understand that stuff and make a bundle of money from it.

    I myself--a very limited sports bettor--have made good money just with the bonus money offers from the BetMGM's, DraftKings, etc. the past few years, and I barely know what I'm doing. For those who make a living with stuff like this, I can see the high potential.
    I could go on for 2 hours about Richard Radner AKA Jai-Alai. I'm responsible for him staying in Las Vegas and learning Machine AP. One of my first big mistakes in advantage play. Heck, I was still working at the time and only Advantage Playing after and before work when I met him. Richard Radner was one of the smartest idiots I ever knew. Greedy, but giving. Honest at times, dishonest at times, loyal at times, disloyal at times, Crazy at times normal at times.

    A Very interesting guy who you hated to like, but you couldn't help yourself. I distanced any AP business with him for the most part(Many people didn't, and some got screwed hard)but I couldn't hate the guy and I had multiple reasons that I should have.
    I don't think I ever met Radner. What did he die from?
    Druff, let us know when you receive redietz’ credit score.

  11. #991
    3-0 on NFL guys, including a +175 ML win on Thursday.

    I just wish I didn't back away from my Green Bay pick. Was a hair away from posting it and betting, then got cold feet and backed off.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #992
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I just wish I didn't back away from my Green Bay pick. Was a hair away from posting it and betting, then got cold feet and backed off.
    Dan, do you realize how nutty also that sounds?

    And, say, "RICHARD RADNER Richard Radner 68 of Las Vegas passed away on November 22 after a short illness. He was a larger-than-life figure in professional gambling starting in his 20's when he was known as Mr. Jai-Alai in Connecticut. Over the years he had excelled at video poker, seven card stud and had an uncanny ability to handicap sporting events with great results. Rick possessed a brilliant mathematical mind and will be remembered by all his friends and family. He was the son of the late Sidney and Helen Radner of Holyoke, MA and leaves his brother Bill and wife Lisa of West Springfield MA."

    No wonder that we're left with you, AW, and Singer. Ha.


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    "Double P.S.S." I wonder what they'll write about Mickey, if anything. Pro craps player, Regnis, to write something about old Red? Holy fuck, what a bunch.
    Last edited by Gottlob1; 09-11-2023 at 03:43 AM.
    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder + Bill Yung + 1HitWonder ---> GOTTLOB1 = Praise to God!

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  13. #993
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    3-0 on NFL guys, including a +175 ML win on Thursday.

    I just wish I didn't back away from my Green Bay pick. Was a hair away from posting it and betting, then got cold feet and backed off.
    Are you ever going to explain the method to your madness? Give us something. I WANT TO BELIEVE!!!

    Also, you you mind telling us what your unit size is? No Karen don't answer, Im talking about his betting unit size.

  14. #994
    Yeah, Dan, tell us. AW's about to pee/poop his trousers ... unless it's more Burning Manboy diarrhea, in which case both, at the same time.
    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder + Bill Yung + 1HitWonder ---> GOTTLOB1 = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html

  15. #995
    How do you post pictures up here?

  16. #996

  17. #997

  18. #998
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    IF the Jets can pull this off I will have won 11 out of 11

  19. #999
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    IF the Jets can pull this off I will have won 11 out of 11
    And they did.

  20. #1000
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    IF the Jets can pull this off I will have won 11 out of 11
    Shoot for 18 in a row.

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