Rob I think the danger of "expecting" to win whether it be the pay table, or the odds, is what leads people to keep betting beyond what would be their loss limit. Of course, APs don't believe in loss limits or win goals... hence they run the risk of losing more than what "non-APs" might lose.

When you think about it, the belief in "expected return" comes awfully close to the belief that "I am due to win" and we know that the "I am due to win" belief is false. So shouldn't the "expected return" belief ripe with danger?

If you really believe in a random game how can anything be "expected." It can be "hoped for," but not "expected." Unless of course the mathematical definition of "expected" differs from common language... and common sense.