Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
Thanks (not really) for bringing it to my attention, mickey. I don't really care what redietz says. I certainly am not going to bother answering him over there. If he wants to discuss it here I could reply.

But really you responded for me mickey. My very good start was not just NFL, although Half smokes first 2 week's angle was a big part of it as underdogs kicked ass those first 2 weeks. Druff also started 6-1, I think. So that was 2/3 right there. And the college unders the second week which I announced before any of the games kicked ass as well. I was only betting the unders on the completive games, with 2 normal conference teams. I was not being games like Oklahoma and Est bubble fuck state that went 77-10. The reason I thought the unders were a good bet for a couple weeks was the new running clock rules. I thought that was more of an adjustment than people (and the books) were making it. And it was for the week I bet. I intended to bet a second week, but, I was out playing blackjack all night and never got that second weeks bets in.

So that is where my +25 in the first few weeks came from. It was all documented what I was betting before the games were played. Unfortunately, after that I started relying more on my own picks, a lot of +3, +3.5. +7, +7.5 picks in both college and pros and went down hill for a few weeks. this week was better for me both college and Pro so far.

I just want to finish the next few weeks at .500 or close and I will be elated.

Does Redeitz understand that the +EV of this for me was NOT winning games, but rather the 21k in bonus money?
redietz is crying out for attention over at Gambling Forums. It's easy to tell his feelings are hurt. He misses you guys but doesn't want to come slithering back to VCT with all that mud on his face. So he's writing posts on GA slandering the members here and hoping to get our attention.

But he did bring up an interesting point. And that is about middles betting when you are chasing the bonuses. He said you should have switched to middles betting after getting 25 games above .500.

I would have questions about that. Is middling the way to go when working these promotions? How much time is involved? Seems to me sitting watching numbers all day in hopes of finding a middle would be way to time consuming. Time that would cost one money on other AP endeavors. Why would one start middling after unexpectedly gaining a huge lead? Why wouldn't one start middling from the get go?

redietz is a one trick pony, sportsbetting. He's never shown any aptitude at other forums of gambling, although he loves to speculate about what "AP's" do. And it's always false and/or derogatory speculation. He's always lashing out.

I don't think he knows anything about how AP's are constantly managing their time. I was always making choices of whether I should be on this play or that play. Or could I work both plays simultaneously? What would be the benefit of working just one of the plays? What would be the benefit of working both plays? What if working both plays meant I couldn't optimize the expectation on either play but I made more money than if I worked just one play. That would be the way to go.

I think that's what AP's run into when working these sports betting promotions. They don't have unlimited time to spend looking for middles because it would cost them income in other areas.