Originally Posted by
unowme
Bayesian inference might allow APs to adjust their play based on observation of outcomes by uncovering a lack of true randomness in the game itself or by overcoming a lack of knowledge on the inner workings of the game.
Now, is Spikes 'outcome-based method' steeped in a deep understanding of this alternative math? Unlikely. But that's not to say there might not be some basis for his outcome-based approach.