So related to this - let me try to estimate the EV of this circa tournament. I am not claiming to have "done much research" but I will give it an honest effort.

So I see Circa million https://www.circasports.com/circa-sports-million

1k entry. 6 million guarantee.

Lets say that is 9000 entries. Actually no, 4680 entries on results sheet. Nice - an overlay.

What is the EV of a great sports pick tournament player? It is hard and I only have poker tournaments to go off. People seem to think 50% for online is like 200% live.

We'll go with 200% ROI or 2x the stake. I suspect this is super generous.

So the overlay is 6mil/1k - 4680 .. 1320 .. the overlay per player is 282. So the EV on this tournament for a pro could be .50 to 2.0 of 1282.

That is a range of 641 to 2564.

Not bad. I'm not sure about the rest. If you are examining all this stuff like crazy it must take up sick hours. Clearly Ditz likes that stuff though so it is hard to count it into his hourly. Most APs find what they're doing to be a grind.

5 picks. Lets say 5 hours a week. 18 weeks. 90 hours is an hourly of $7.12 to $28.49.

In theory you could enter this tournament 5 times and that would be 5x the above numbers. I would tend to think $140 an hour playing 5 tournaments. You can only do this during NFL season though. That also assumes you have the BR to stake yourself and with 5 entries at once.