Sports Picks

[Half Smoke]

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one bet - one unit divided as such - NHL

60% Tampa Bay Lightning over Blue Jackets - -330_____________smallish loss of about 10% of total bet if win but fail to cover

40% Lightning -1.5 Puck Line - 128 (fanduel)___________the bet as a whole will return slightly less than 1/2 if they cover

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[Half Smoke]

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too late to edit -


the above math is incorrect - sorry about that

if the Lightning win but fail to cover the loss will be slightly over 20% of the total bet amount - sorry about that

the calculation if they do cover is correct


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[Half Smoke]

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today Yankees - one bet divided as such -

Yankees - 220 over Marlins_____80%_________a small win of about 16% of total bet if they win but fail to cover

Yankees -1.5 -105_________20%_________a profit of about 55% of total bet if they cover

Bet 365 has best odds for this bet right now

Marlins are 10-2 in losing by more than one run in the games they have lost


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[Half Smoke]

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too late to edit

wanna change above bet to just money line - Yankees -220 over Marlins

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[Half Smoke]

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Astros/Royals over 8.5 - 115

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[kewlJ]

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Astros/Royals over 8.5 - 115

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Game went over in less than 1 inning.

Don't you wish they were all this easy?

[Half Smoke]

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Astros/Royals over 8.5 - 115

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Game went over in less than 1 inning.

Don't you wish they were all this easy?

yes
I like picking the over when there are weak starting pitchers
Hunter Brown of the Astros shows weakness this year and last
Brady Singer of the Royals shows strength this year but only in 13 innings pitched and he was weak last year

anyway - just one game - not like I've found the Key to the Kingdom or anything like that_________________

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[MDawg]

Game went over in less than 1 inning.

Don't you wish they were all this easy?

The Gossage—Vardebedian Papers


Two people pretending to place sports bets, both cheating.

[Half Smoke]

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NHL - one pick divided as such:

Edmonton tonight over Arizona - 290________80% of bet for a tiny win if they win but fail to cover

Edmonton on the Puck Line -1.5 -112 with the other 20% of the bet__________if they cover the win is about 45% of the total amount bet

Edmonton still has a shot at catching Vancouver for the top spot in the Pacific Division

this will be Arizona's 4th game in a row on the road - that has to be tough


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[Half Smoke]

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MLS soccer

NY Red Bulls/Chicago Fire over 2.5 goals_____________-120

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[Half Smoke]

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add one more pick for today -

Marco Gonzalez - Pirates Pitcher - giving up under 3.5 earned runs to Phillies _____-165_________DraftKings_______see link


https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...=pitcher-props

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[kewlJ]

I have a bit of time today, so some thoughts.

I am doing volume betting for the bonus money. Sometimes called bonus whoring. I try to make my picks based on a hodge podge of methods, trends of past results, my own handicapping, tagging along with picks from the guys at ESPN bet live, VISN, and Half Smoke and Dan Druff on this forum (Druff is streaky). Monet is also on that list, although he doesn't post much anymore.

That said, Half Smoke, I have been unwilling to go along with a couple picks this week where you are laying -250 or -300. That is just agaisnt my fiber. I don't like a bet where if I lose, I need to win 3 others to make up for it. And especially on ice hockey, where things are determined by a hunk of rubber bouncing on a patch of ice. I get what you are doing breaking up wager between money line and puck line. I just can't do that. Anyway that is just me.

As an general philosophy, I prefer under bets (totals) and underdog wagers with points and money line. I like totals unders because I believe in general the public likes to bet overs. They like a lot of scoring and this results in the lines being slightly artificially high in my opinion. So I bet more "unders". As far as side bets, I like the underdogs because in general The gap between player talent on a good team vs a mediocre team, or a mediocre team vs a bad team, is not as much as people think. Now one of the top teams in any league vs one of the bottom teams, that is another story, but still those lines ridiculously high. Not enough to blindly take dogs or anything, but certainly not laying these monster amounts.

Anyway, just some sports betting thoughts and talk. In the end, it still is all about the bonus money for me.

[Half Smoke]

That said, Half Smoke, I have been unwilling to go along with a couple picks this week where you are laying -250 or -300.

totally understandable
I think a lot of bettors feel the same way
I think I'll be moving away from those types of picks also
ooth - it may be easier to find an edge (at least a theoretical one) on those types of bets since so many feel the same way and it may cause the line to skew and make the other side very disadvantageous and the very chalky side advantageous
this happens quite often I believe

I'm going to be looking more at DraftKings props - it can be a lot of work but it seems fairly easy to find a theoretical edge that's not so chalky



but you can't go to the mall with just a theoretical edge___________________


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[MDawg]

I have a bit of time today

Vegas too empty to get tricks and so you're broke and whiney? What’s going on dear man, please tell us.

[Half Smoke]

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have been kind of mediocre or a little worse than mediocre with my picks

gonna try and improve by focusing on proposition bets where I think there is a better chance of finding mispricings

today Nets at 6ers - Tobias Harris over 13.5 points -105 - (draftkings)

he's averaging 17 for the year - he's been over that total in the last 10 games and over 21-5 in the last 26 games

the last time the 6ers played the Nets Harris had 18


https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...=player-points

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[kewlJ]

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today Nets at 6ers - Tobias Harris over 13.5 points -105 - (draftkings)

he's averaging 17 for the year -

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I am not sure this is the slam dunk that it initially appears to be. Embiid is the 76ers leading scorer at 30+ points a game (many coming from the foul line). He takes probably 35+ shots to get that 30 points. So in games he doesn't play, and he has missed roughly half the 76ers games, everyone else will get more shots and have a higher average than games in which Embiid plays. I would guess if you were to look at the splits for games in which Embidd plays and doesn't, Harris's average will be night and day. Probably 20+ without (more shots available) and 13 or 14 with.

Not saying it is a bad bet, but I would want to see those splits. There are only so many shots available in a game and if one guy is taking 35 of them.....

[Half Smoke]

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today Nets at 6ers - Tobias Harris over 13.5 points -105 - (draftkings)

he's averaging 17 for the year -

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I am not sure this is the slam dunk that it initially appears to be. Embiid is the 76ers leading scorer at 30+ points a game (many coming from the foul line). He takes probably 35+ shots to get that 30 points. So in games he doesn't play, and he has missed roughly half the 76ers games, everyone else will get more shots and have a higher average than games in which Embiid plays. I would guess if you were to look at the splits for games in which Embidd plays and doesn't, Harris's average will be night and day. Probably 20+ without (more shots available) and 13 or 14 with.

Not saying it is a bad bet, but I would want to see those splits. There are only so many shots available in a game and if one guy is taking 35 of them.....

good point - I've linked the game logs of the 2 - it's maybe not a slam dunk - but I think a good bet

the last 3 games they've played together Harris has had 14, 15 and 18 points

also, they played together on Jan. 30 and Jan. 22 and Harris had 26 and 14 points - on Jan. 22 Embiid had 70 points

they both played most of January together and Harris went 7-4 over that total in January

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/game...18/joel-embiid

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/game.../tobias-harris

one more prop bet for today

Pistons vs. Spurs__________Jalen Duren over 5.5 rebounds -125

he's gone over that total 30-4 in his last 34 games

it definitely seems much easier to get a good prop bet than the standard bets - no guarantees of course

and it takes a lot of time but it's kinna fun trying to find a good bet - props are a whole different world that I really haven't looked into much before this

I'm enjoying it quite a bit


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[kewlJ]

Turns out Embiid was an unexpected late scratch, making your bet look better (in my eyes). Unfortunately I didn't tag along.

[MDawg]

SChiZoPHreNiC UNKewl PYsCHo babble

and

(17) fabricated sports bets

[Half Smoke]

Turns out Embiid was an unexpected late scratch, making your bet look better (in my eyes). Unfortunately I didn't tag along.

yeah
I had no idea
Harris had 21

who was it who said____________I'd rather be lucky than good__________?________________so very, very true

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